Shkendija vs The New Saints Prediction: 15.07.2025 UEFA Champions League Preview

The UEFA Champions League First Qualifying Round is seldom short of narrative, but Shkendija vs The New Saints offers particular intrigue. Both teams are hungry for European progression, yet each enters with contrasting form and tactical philosophies. Shkendija, boasting a strong home record and solid squad depth, will host The New Saints, the dominant Welsh champions eager to prove their mettle on the continental stage. With both sides coming off a goalless draw in the first leg, tension will be high at the Philip II Arena in Skopje, where the smallest margin could decide who advances.

Two names worth keeping an eye on? For Shkendija, the relentless Besart Ibraimi remains a danger at the front line, while for The New Saints, Daniel Redmond’s orchestration in midfield could yet be decisive. Both players have the intelligence and flair to tip the balance in their side’s favour—especially in a tie this finely poised.

Here’s a stat that leaps out: The New Saints have collected six yellow cards across their last five games, indicating both robust defending and perhaps a susceptibility to moments of rashness under pressure.

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Shkendija vs The New Saints prediction

The standout pick here is Shkendija to qualify—either via outright win in regular time or through extra time or penalties. Their home advantage at the imposing Philip II Arena is pivotal, as is their tactical discipline under Jeton Bekjiri. Shkendija are unbeaten in their last three at home, mixing high pressing with swift transitions, and they’ll be keen to capitalise upon The New Saints’ less convincing away form.

From a tactical perspective, Shkendija’s preference for the 4-3-3 formation fosters attacking width, often drawing defensive fouls in the final third. Notably, they’ve picked up only two yellow cards in their last five outings—testament to their composure. The New Saints, typically deploying a 4-2-3-1, have struggled to maintain clean sheets away from home and accrue more cards, suggesting they may turn physical if under siege.

Neither side has scored in the last two matches, so we expect a cagier first half, with the game opening up as nerves settle. Corner count should be decent with both teams using the flanks, but total goals should stay under 2.5 unless someone finds early inspiration.

Team Analysis

Shkendija Recent Matches:
Shkendija come into this contest having drawn 0-0 away against The New Saints—a result reflective of their strong defensive structure, albeit with some bluntness in attack in recent outings. Before that, they eked out a 2-1 win over Dinamo Tirana and a commendable 1-1 draw against Bulgarian side CSKA Sofia, further underpinning their resilience. Their last home defeat—0-4 at the hands of Koper—has prompted evident tactical recalibration, and since then, their 1-0 win against Arges showed renewed sharpness, particularly in transition.

The New Saints Recent Matches:
For The New Saints, the goalless stalemate against Shkendija was a solid, if unspectacular, result. However, their preceding form has been less inspiring—a 0-1 home defeat to Newtown and a string of draws (2-2 versus Larne; 1-1 against Ayr) highlight occasional frailties in penetration and a need to rediscover their cutting edge. Despite a dominant domestic campaign, their European journey has tested their composure, and lapses in discipline (six yellows in five games) could prove costly if repeated in Skopje.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Shkendija vs The New Saints stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Shkendija the favourite

• Moneyline Shkendija 1.70-1.87 | The New Saints 4.00-5.00
• Draw 3.59-3.85
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.20 | Under 2.5 1.63
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.70

With Shkendija hovering around 1.70-1.87 and The New Saints drifting as far out as 5.00, bookmakers heavily favour the Macedonians. The draw is possible—especially with both lacking recent firepower—but Shkendija’s home record and tactical discipline make them the logical pick. The low price on Under 2.5 is indicative of expectations for a cagey, low-scoring affair—with both teams rooted in defensive resolve thus far.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Shkendija possible starting eleven

Jeton Bekjiri is likely to stick with a 4-3-3, favouring continuity. Baboucarr Gaye anchors a defence featuring Cake and Trumci, both of whom are disciplined and aggressive in their roles. Ramadani and Qaka will seek to control the tempo in midfield, while the attacking trio led by Ibraimi offers pace and guile on the flanks. Watch for Ibraimi—his work rate and ability to pop up in dangerous areas could be the difference.

The New Saints possible starting eleven

Craig Harrison has mainly operated with a 4-2-3-1, though flexibility between midfield and attack is crucial. Amzai takes the gloves, protected by Astles and McGahey at the back. Midfield dynamism comes from Redmond and Clark, while up front, the pairing of Williams and Brobbell will be tasked with breaching the Shkendija defence. Redmond, with his set-piece prowess, is a key figure who could spark something out of little.

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My take on the Match

Looking at the flow of recent matches, we expect Shkendija’s blend of discipline and home advantage to see them through. Our main pick is a narrow Shkendija win, possibly 1-0, with the hosts’ solidity and tactical organisation outweighing the New Saints’ occasional lapses in defence. Still, it’s the Champions League—a single moment of magic, a slip in concentration, could turn it on its head! For those seeking value, backing Under 2.5 goals and a home win covers both tactical conservatism and late drama. Ultimately, Shkendija’s pedigree at home and composure in crucial moments give them the edge, while The New Saints will need to muster their very best to cause an upset.

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