Levi Rothermund
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Hibernian head to Skopje holding a 2-1 advantage from the first leg, making this second leg a must-win for Shkendija at home. The Macedonian side knows a draw or a loss sends them out, which changes the tactical dynamic considerably. Artim Polozani’s team will need to press high and score early, while David Gray’s Hibernian can afford to sit deeper and hit on the counter. That contrast in incentives makes this one of the more interesting second legs in this round of Conference League qualifying.
One player to watch on the Shkendija side is Marko Gjorgjievski, who has three goals in his last four matches and is clearly the focal point of their attack. For Hibernian, Owen Elding stands out with three goals and an assist across six recent games, and his ability to hold the ball up and create space will be key to managing a potentially frantic home side.
A hot stat worth noting: Hibernian have scored 11 goals in their last five matches, averaging over two per game, which is a sharp contrast to Shkendija’s six in the same period.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Nacional Arena Todor Proeski, Skopje |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Shkendija vs Hibernian Prediction
Hibernian are the value pick here. They won the first leg 2-1 away from home, they have more firepower across their squad, and their passing volume and shot output are significantly higher than Shkendija’s over recent matches. The Scottish side has logged 97 total shots in five games compared to Shkendija’s 46, and that gap in attacking output is hard to ignore.
Shkendija will be forced to attack, which opens space for Hibernian on the break. We think the visitors can manage the tie without overextending, and their defensive structure, anchored by Warren O’Hora who has contributed two goals from the back, gives them a real threat from set pieces as well.
Shkendija have picked up 12 yellow cards in five games, the same number as Hibernian, but their foul data is missing entirely, which makes it harder to read their disciplinary pattern. Hibernian committed 26 fouls across five matches, a moderate number that suggests they press selectively rather than constantly. That measured approach suits a team defending a lead in hostile conditions.
With Shkendija needing to push forward, the game could open up in the second half. We think both teams score is likely given Shkendija’s attacking need, but Hibernian to win or at minimum advance on aggregate looks like the sensible call.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hibernian to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Shkendija come into this second leg with mixed recent form. Across their last five matches they beat Vardar 2-0 and FK Skopje 3-0 in domestic action, and beat Bravo 3-1, but they lost to Hibernian 1-2 in the first leg and also dropped a game to Bravo 1-2 before that. The pattern suggests they are comfortable against domestic opposition but struggle when the quality steps up. Their 58% win rate for the year across 38 matches is reasonable, but that record is inflated by easier Macedonian league fixtures.
Hibernian’s recent run tells a more complicated story. They lost to Motherwell 1-2 in what looks like a blip, and they were beaten by Malisheva 0-2 in an earlier qualifying tie before reversing that result 4-1 in the return. Most recently they beat Rangers 2-1, which is a result that carries genuine weight. Their first-leg win over Shkendija was not a fluke, and their ability to grind out results against tougher opponents is evident. Six games in the last 30 days with four wins and two losses mirrors Shkendija exactly in terms of record, but the quality of opposition faced by Hibernian is arguably higher.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have only met once in competitive football so far, in the first leg of this very tie.
| Statistic | Shkendija | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Shkendija vs Hibernian stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Even contest
- Moneyline Shkendija 2.45 | Hibernian 2.47
- Draw 3.49
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The market has this remarkably even, with Shkendija and Hibernian priced almost identically around 2.45. That reflects the bookmakers treating this as a neutral contest on paper, but it arguably undervalues the fact that Hibernian already hold a first-leg lead. Playing at home does give Shkendija an edge, and the Nacional Arena crowd will push them forward, but the odds on Hibernian look like decent value given the context. Pinnacle’s line of 2.52 for Hibernian is the most accurate market signal here, and we lean that way.
Shkendija. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Shkendija possible starting eleven
- GK: Goalkeeper (TBC)
- DF: Arbin Zejnulai, Aleksander Trumci, Jovan Manev, Imran Fetai
- MF: Rafael De Freitas Silva, Endrit Krasniqi, Sebastjan Spahiu
- FW: Fabrice Tamba, Marko Gjorgjievski, Fahd Ndzengue
Shkendija have been consistent in a 4-3-3 shape across their last five matches. Marko Gjorgjievski is the player who makes them tick in attack, with three goals in four appearances. Arbin Zejnulai has picked up two yellow cards recently, so he is a booking risk if Shkendija push aggressively. Rafael De Freitas Silva anchors the midfield and will need to balance attacking support with defensive cover given Hibernian’s counter-attacking threat.
Hibernian possible starting eleven
- GK: Raphael Sallinger
- DF: Warren O’Hora, Jason Kerr, A. Major, Jordan Obita
- MF: Josh Mulligan, Miguel Changa Chaiwa, Felix Passlack, Martin Boyle
- FW: Owen Elding, Nathan Lowe
David Gray has settled on a 4-3-3 that shifts into a 4-5-1 out of possession. Raphael Sallinger has 11 saves across six games and is the first-choice keeper. Jason Kerr has logged 93 passes with 86% accuracy in six appearances, making him the most reliable ball-player from the back. Martin Boyle adds pace and directness on the right, and his two goals in five games make him a constant threat. Callum Wright, with two assists in just three games, is an option off the bench if Hibernian need to change the tempo late on.
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Hibernian. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Honestly, this feels like a match where the scoreline matters less than the aggregate outcome. Shkendija need to win by at least two goals to advance, which forces them into an open approach that suits Hibernian’s counter-attacking strengths. The Scottish side beat Rangers 2-1 just days ago, so they arrive in form and with confidence. Their shot volume, goal output, and passing accuracy across recent games all point to a team that can handle the pressure of a hostile away second leg.
We think Hibernian score at least once here, which would put the tie firmly beyond Shkendija. A 1-1 or 2-1 Hibernian win is the most likely range of outcomes. Shkendija may grab a goal given their home need, but the visitors have enough quality to see this through.
Our prediction: Hibernian to win or draw, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals.
