Shanghai Port vs Shenzhen Peng City Prediction: 21 July 2026 CFA Cup

Shanghai Port host Shenzhen Peng City at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium in the CFA Cup 2026 Round of 16. Kevin Muscat’s side enter as clear bookmakers’ favourites at 60%, and the head-to-head record backs that up: Port have won three of the last four meetings, including a 3-1 and a 2-0 win in 2024-25. Shenzhen arrive with three losses from their last five matches, making this a tough ask on the road. One player to watch is Mateus Vital, who has contributed two assists across his last three appearances for Shanghai Port and drives much of the team’s attacking rhythm from midfield. For Shenzhen, Tim Chow stands out with a goal and 9 total shots in four recent outings, combining energy and directness in the middle of the park.

Hot stat: Shenzhen Peng City have attempted 53 total shots across their last five matches, more than double Shanghai Port’s 25, yet both sides have scored exactly 5 goals in that same span, underlining how wasteful Shenzhen have been in front of goal.

Shanghai Port vs Shenzhen Peng City Prediction

Shanghai Port are the logical pick here. They hold home advantage, carry a superior head-to-head record against this opponent, and their recent form over the last 30 days (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) is marginally better than Shenzhen’s 2 wins from 5. Port’s narrow but consistent results in domestic play — back-to-back 2-1 wins over Henan and Shanghai Segenda — show they know how to manage tight knockout-style matches.

Shenzhen’s style creates volume: 53 shots and 21 corner kicks across five games, combined with 55 fouls and 9 yellow cards, paints a picture of a side that presses aggressively but concedes cheap set-piece situations. Shanghai Port, by contrast, are far more disciplined with only 40 fouls and 4 yellow cards, and their 46 free kicks earned could be a genuine attacking weapon against Shenzhen’s high-foul tendency. Port’s pass accuracy (1,036 out of 1,254 passes) also reflects a more structured approach compared to Shenzhen’s looser ball retention. We predict Shanghai Port to win, and the match to stay relatively low-scoring given Port’s defensive discipline.

Team Analysis

Shanghai Port’s last five matches have been a mixed bag in terms of results, but the underlying pattern is one of resilience. They beat Henan Songshan Longmen 2-1 and Shanghai Segenda 2-1 in back-to-back games, then drew 2-2 with Yunnan Yukun most recently. The loss to Liaoning Tieren (2-3) is the only real blemish, and that opponent carried a much lower club ranking. Across five matches Port managed only 25 total shots, which is modest, but they have been efficient. Wei Zhen and Li Xinxiang each contributed a goal from defensive and forward positions respectively, adding depth to the scoring threat. The red card picked up in recent games is a concern for squad management in a knockout tie.

Shenzhen Peng City’s recent run tells a more troubled story. They lost 0-2 to Wuhan Three Towns and 0-3 to Tianjin Jinmen Tiger, both at home, sandwiched around a 3-0 win over Qingdao Youth Island. Their 2-3 loss to Chengdu Better City — a side with a much lower rating — is a red flag. Robbie Neilson’s side clearly has the firepower: Deabeas Owusu-Sekyere leads with 11 shots and a goal across four games, and Gabriel Xavier has chipped in with a goal from defence. The problem is defensive structure. Conceding 8 goals across five matches while racking up 55 fouls and two red cards points to a team that is stretched at the back and prone to disciplinary lapses.

🚨Check out our dedicated Shanghai Port vs Shenzhen Peng City stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Shanghai Port the Favourite

• Moneyline Shanghai Port 1.56 | Shenzhen Peng City 5.15
• Draw 4.30
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

Shanghai Port at around 1.54-1.58 across books is fair value given their home record, head-to-head dominance (8 goals to 3 across four recent meetings), and Shenzhen’s defensive fragility. The draw at 4.05-4.30 is unlikely given Port’s clear quality advantage at home. Shenzhen at 5.00+ reflects genuine long-shot status. The best line on Port is BCGame or Roobet at 1.58, offering a slight edge over the market average.

Possible Starting Lineups

Shanghai Port Possible Starting Eleven

Yan Junling is the clear first-choice keeper with 10 saves across three appearances. The back four builds around Wei Zhen, who has contributed a goal from defence and logged strong interception numbers. Mateus Vital and Óscar Melendo are the creative engine, combining for three assists between them. Prince Ampem is a constant threat with 5 shots and 10 free kicks won. Kevin Muscat is likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1, with Kodjo Jean Claude providing defensive cover in midfield.

Shenzhen Peng City Possible Starting Eleven

Peng Peng starts in goal with 15 saves from four games, keeping Shenzhen in matches they might otherwise have lost by larger margins. Gabriel Xavier carries an attacking threat from centre-back with a goal and 6 interceptions, though his two yellow cards and one red card make him a disciplinary risk. Robbie Neilson should stick with the 4-3-3, relying on Deabeas Owusu-Sekyere’s 11 shots and Tim Chow’s all-round contribution to generate pressure. Wesley Moraes adds experience up front, though his conversion rate has been poor recently.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Shanghai Port are the pick in this CFA Cup Round of 16 tie. They have beaten Shenzhen in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, scoring 8 goals to Shenzhen’s 3 across those games. Shenzhen’s defensive numbers — 8 goals conceded, 55 fouls, and two red cards across five matches — make them vulnerable against a structured Port side that converts efficiently despite low shot volume. Shenzhen’s attack generates plenty of attempts but lacks the clinical edge to trouble a disciplined Port backline. We predict a Shanghai Port win with a clean sheet, and the match staying under 2.5 goals. To be honest, the only real risk is Shenzhen’s set-piece threat from their high free kick count, but Port’s organisation should handle it.

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