Shakhtar Donetsk vs Rijeka Prediction: 18.12.2025 UEFA Europa Conference League Preview

As the UEFA Europa Conference League 2025/26 league phase reaches its fever pitch, Shakhtar Donetsk square off against Rijeka in Bergen’s Brann Stadion. Both teams come in with matching recent win rates, but the Ukrainian powerhouse is looking to solidify their spot in the upper echelons of the standings, while Rijeka, sitting six points back, seek a statement result on European soil. What makes this fixture particularly intriguing is the tactical chess match between two managers from starkly different football cultures: Arda Turan’s flair-first philosophy versus Víctor Sánchez’s hard-nosed pragmatism.

Among the wealth of talent on display, keep an eye on Shakhtar’s Brazilian forward Kauã Elias—the man in form and responsible for pivotal goals in the league phase. For Rijeka, the midfield dynamo Toni Fruk stands out; his recent scoring form and ability to break defensive lines could be the difference-maker in a tight contest.

The “hot stat”? Rijeka have amassed a staggering 57 fouls and 10 yellow cards across their last five—undeniable proof of an aggressive, physically committed approach.

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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Rijeka prediction

Given the data—Shakhtar’s superior passing efficiency (85.5 percent to Rijeka’s 82.2 percent), stronger defensive record, and more balanced approach—the most valuable match prediction is a **Shakhtar Donetsk win**, but with both teams likely to have their moments. Rijeka’s intensity brings disruption but also risk; their yellow card count and foul numbers could well result in key suspensions or a costly defensive lapse. This is matched by Shakhtar’s ability to control the middle third and punish opponents on transition, particularly through Elias and Isaque. A narrow win for Shakhtar seems the smart play.

Stylistically, Shakhtar have shown discipline: 15 fouls and 6 yellows over five matches, reflecting a side that makes tactical fouls rather than cynical ones. Their ball control—over 80 percent pass accuracy in every recent outing—lets them dictate tempo. Rijeka, meanwhile, thrive on chaos, pressing high, and are never shy from a tactical foul. However, this often leads to defensive breakdowns—57 fouls and 10 yellows over the same period, compared to Shakhtar’s much cleaner ledger. Both teams favor a 4-1-4-1 setup, but Shakhtar’s shape is more fluid, built for sweeping counters, while Rijeka’s is a shield-and-strike configuration, relying on Fruk to ignite attacks. Look for Shakhtar to exploit Rijeka’s eagerness, especially as legs tire late on.

Team Analysis

Shakhtar Donetsk:
Shakhtar come off a 5-0 demolition of Epitsentr, a performance that showcased the best of their proactive, possession-heavy style. The attacking fluency was on full display, as Elias and Meirelles sealed the result early with quick interplay. Their unbeaten streak (four wins, two draws) testifies to a side not only brimming with confidence but also capable of grinding out results, best demonstrated by their 0-0 draw versus Kolos Kovalivka—a game where their midfield mettle was truly tested. Most recently, Turan’s squad is peaking at the right moment, with every line functioning in sync.

Rijeka:
Rijeka’s recent form is impressive: a 3-0 win over Celje underlines both their attacking verve and their readiness to seize opportunities. Fruk’s dynamic midfield surges and the composure of Radeljić at the back have been instrumental in navigating tight fixtures. However, discipline issues are creeping in—10 yellow cards and a hefty 57 fouls across five matches hint at a side playing with fire. Even in games like the 1-1 stalemate with Lokomotiva Zagreb, Rijeka’s high-risk approach demands constant focus. Against a measured opponent like Shakhtar, this volatility could spell trouble.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Shakhtar Donetsk vs Rijeka stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite

• Moneyline Shakhtar Donetsk 1.90-1.93 | Rijeka 3.95-4.27
• Draw 3.50-3.65
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.95 | Under 2.5 1.75
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.94 | No 1.82

Owing to Shakhtar’s home advantage (albeit in Norway), stronger all-campaign form, and more disciplined defensive structure, they are rightly favored by the books. The draw is not out of play—Rijeka’s penchant for chaos and ability to scrap for results has resulted in two competitive stalemates in their last five. Yet, given Shakhtar’s firepower and Rijeka’s inclination for risky defending, a win for Turan’s side edges it. Overs on goals and corners are also tempting, considering both squads’ high shot and corner output in recent games.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Shakhtar Donetsk possible starting eleven

Shakhtar’s likely 4-1-4-1 sees Fesyun start in net, a foundation of stability. The back four blends youth and experience; Bondar organizes, Tobias and Azarov bring width. In midfield, Nazaryna’s pressing and Isaque’s creativity set up Ocheretko, whose vertical runs are a hallmark. Kauã Elias leads the line, supported directly by roving wide players. Formation fluidity, especially in transition, is a distinct asset—and Elias is the man to watch for decisive moments.

Rijeka possible starting eleven

Rijeka’s 4-1-4-1 relies on Zlomislić’s distribution and the commanding presence of Radeljić and Majstorović centrally. Expect Fruk to be the engine—he’ll shuttle between boxes and attempt to dictate the press. Adu-Adjei’s pace up front offers an out-ball, while Vignato and Dantas provide technical support. Discipline, or lack thereof, could be their Achilles’ heel if they get drawn into midfield battles. The attacking five have sharing duties, with Fruk the creative pulse.

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My take on the Match

Shakhtar Donetsk’s control and discipline should ultimately give them the edge, but Rijeka’s energy is not to be underestimated, especially in the early going. Expect Rijeka to start hot, pressing and collecting set pieces, but as fatigue and defensive frailties creep in, Shakhtar’s class in the final third will tip the scales. The main pick: Shakhtar Donetsk to win and both teams to score—expect goals, drama, and a genuine test of European resilience from both sides.

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