Sevilla vs Las Palmas Prediction: 13.05.2025 La Liga Preview

As the La Liga season approaches its conclusion, Sevilla will host Las Palmas at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán with both sides fighting for vital points. While Sevilla looks to distance itself from the relegation zone, Las Palmas holds only a marginally lower position on the table, intensifying the significance of this fixture. A noteworthy aspect is Sevilla’s struggle for wins recently—0 victories in their last five matches—contrasted by Las Palmas’s unpredictable results, featuring a shock win over Atletico Madrid yet suffering costly defeats to fellow strugglers. Both managers, Joaquín Caparrós for Sevilla and Diego Martínez for Las Palmas, are under considerable pressure to find solutions in what could prove a season-defining match.

Key players expected to make a difference include Sevilla’s Kike Salas, whose two goals from defense in recent matches have provided a glimmer of hope, and Las Palmas’s Oliver McBurnie, whose composure and finishing have produced two vital goals even as his team has struggled for consistency in attack.

Hot stat: Las Palmas has squeezed out 26 corner kicks in their last five league games, highlighting their attacking intent from wide areas—a figure significantly above Sevilla’s 21 during the same period.

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Sevilla vs Las Palmas prediction

The underlying numbers offer a telling narrative: Sevilla, despite home advantage, have failed to secure a win in their previous five outings, while Las Palmas, though equally inconsistent, have shown a greater attacking spark and set-piece threat, especially from corners. Given both sides’ vulnerability at the back—Sevilla has conceded 49 in 35 league matches, Las Palmas 57—the best value lies with a market that shields against either side’s defensive lapses.

Sevilla’s tactical setup under Caparrós favors controlled possession and a 4-2-3-1 shape, but overly patient buildup often leads to lost momentum and opportunities for the opposition. Las Palmas, inclined to transition quickly in a 4-4-2, have shown a willingness to press high and exploit set-piece situations, as reflected in their recent corner stats.

Discipline could play a crucial role. Both clubs have received more than two bookings per game in their latest fixtures (Sevilla 10, Las Palmas 11 yellow cards in 5 matches), suggesting a disruptive rhythm filled with tactical fouls. Despite this, expect an open game, as both sides ultimately need three points more than a solitary draw.

Team Analysis

Sevilla recent games:

Sevilla’s search for form continues, with their last victory in La Liga eluding them for over a month. In their most recent five matches, they have managed just two points: a 2-2 draw with Leganes and a 1-1 draw against Alavés were juxtaposed by hard-fought defeats to Celta Vigo (2-3), Osasuna (0-1), and Valencia (0-1). The tendency to concede late, lack of control in midfield during transitions, and occasional defensive lapses have hampered their progress. Kike Salas’ goals have been a silver lining, but Suso’s creative output and Lucien Agoumé’s work rate need to translate into more consistent team performances.

Las Palmas recent games:

Las Palmas, for their part, enter this match buoyed by a surprise 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid in recent weeks and a convincing 3-1 result against Getafe. However, defeats to Rayo Vallecano (0-1), Valencia (2-3), and Athletic Bilbao (0-1) demonstrate ongoing struggles with defensive solidity. Coach Diego Martínez’s reliance on Oliver McBurnie and Fábio Silva for end product has paid dividends in bursts, but consistency has proved elusive. Their pressing and set-piece prowess, particularly in winning corners, could be crucial weapons away from home.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Sevilla vs Las Palmas stats for more analysis.

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Pre-game odds and win probability: Sevilla the favourite

The bookmakers tilt toward Sevilla is shaped by their home advantage and marginally higher squad depth, yet the odds for Las Palmas are notably generous considering their recent attacking upturn. The over 2.5 goals market presents good value, given both teams’ defensive leaks and recent uptick in goals scored. Both teams to score appears solid—neither side boasts a resolute defense, and their mutual need for points could ensure an open contest.

Possible Starting Lineups

Sevilla possible starting eleven

Sevilla’s likely 4-2-3-1 setup offers a blend of experience and youth, anchored by Nyland in goal and a committed back four with Salas and Bade at its core. Agoumé’s energy and Gudelj’s tactical awareness in midfield will need to neutralize Las Palmas’ transitions, while Suso and Lukebakio offer creativity and directness out wide. Watch for Salas’s runs from deep and Lukebakio’s threat on the break. This formation seeks to maximize control in the center of the pitch and unleash quick transitions down the flanks.

Las Palmas possible starting eleven

Las Palmas are expected to line up in their familiar 4-4-2, prioritizing defensive solidity on the road. Horkaš remains the reliable last line of defense, with Mármol and Suárez marshaling the backline. The midfield quartet is designed for high-energy pressing, especially Bajcetic and Moleiro tasked to disrupt Sevilla’s build-up. Up front, the pairing of McBurnie and Silva combines physicality and finishing—both have found the net recently. The system is balanced to absorb pressure and strike quickly, especially through set-pieces and fast counters.

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My take on the Match

Given the tactical matchups and recent form, my principal pick is Las Palmas +0.5 on the Asian Handicap market. Sevilla’s home record and squad quality warrant respect, but their inability to convert draws into wins this spring is a red flag, especially against a Las Palmas side with weapons on the counter and set-pieces. I anticipate a scoreline of 2-2 or 1-2, with Las Palmas’s directness and McBurnie’s poaching keeping Sevilla on edge. Expect a lively rhythm, high volume of corners, and both teams breaching the opposition defense at least once.

This encounter encapsulates the drive and desperation typical of late-season La Liga fixtures. For observers and punters alike, it promises drama, tactical intrigue, and a fresh reminder of Spanish football’s rich unpredictability.

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