Rafael Nogueira
SER Caxias host Anapolis at Estádio Centenário on July 1 in a Série C regular season fixture where both sides sit in the lower half of the table and badly need points. SER Caxias sit 14th with 9 points from 9 games, while Anapolis are 20th with just 6 points from 7 outings. The teams met once before in this same competition, with Caxias winning 1-0 at odds of 58% in the bookmakers’ favour — a result that adds context to the current price. One detail worth noting: Caxias have drawn six of their nine league matches this season, suggesting a stubborn defensive setup that opponents find hard to break down.
Midfielder and creative output from Anapolis will be under scrutiny, as the visitors have conceded 8 goals in 7 games and lost their last outing 0-4 to Paysandu. For Caxias, their attacking threat has been minimal — just 2 goals scored all season — so the player tasked with creating from midfield and converting set pieces will carry the most weight in this encounter.
Hot stat: Anapolis have shipped 4 goals in a single match as recently as June 28, a 0-4 loss to Paysandu, making their defensive fragility a key angle heading into this game.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série C 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio Centenário, Caxias do Sul |
| 🗓️ Date: | 01.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
SER Caxias vs Anapolis Prediction
The bookmakers price SER Caxias at 59% win probability, and the 1.51 odds on offer reflect a strong home favourite tag. Given Caxias’ home advantage, Anapolis’ poor defensive record, and the head-to-head precedent, a Caxias win is the most logical route. The concern is Caxias’ own attacking output — two goals in nine league games — so a narrow win or even a draw remains very possible.
We predict a low-scoring match. Caxias have drawn six of nine games this season and have not been prolific in front of goal, while Anapolis have shown they can score (3-1 win over Paysandu on June 23) but also concede freely. The best value bet is a Caxias win, with under 2.5 goals as a complementary selection given the hosts’ pattern of grinding out results.
Caxias’ disciplined defensive shape, evidenced by their six draws and minimal goals conceded relative to matches played, should keep this tight. Anapolis’ inconsistency — three wins and three losses in their last six, with no draws — points to a volatile side that can either show up or collapse. On the road against a structured home team, collapse is the more likely scenario.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | SER Caxias to Win to Nil |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
SER Caxias have been frustratingly consistent in one specific way: they draw. Six draws in nine Série C games tells the story of a team that is hard to beat but equally hard to back with confidence. Their last five matches all ended 0-0, which is a remarkable run of clean sheets paired with a complete absence of goals. The opponents in that run — Ituano, Maranhao, Paysandu, Barra, and Sao Bernardo — vary in quality, but the pattern is too persistent to dismiss. Jeff Strasser’s side appears set up to be compact and disciplined, relying on not losing rather than imposing themselves offensively. Their form string shows stretches of poor results, but the recent 0-0 sequence suggests a team that has found some defensive stability.
Anapolis arrive in poor form from a results standpoint. Their last outing was a 0-4 thrashing at the hands of Paysandu on June 27, wiping out the momentum from a 3-1 win over the same opponent just days earlier on June 23. That back-to-back swing against Paysandu — a win then a heavy loss — captures exactly what Anapolis are: unpredictable and mentally fragile. They sit bottom of the table with 6 points from 7 games, a goal difference of -4, and a form string that offers little comfort to any punter. The 0-2 loss to Rio Branco ES on June 19 also preceded that Paysandu result, meaning Anapolis have won just one of their last four matches.
🚨 Check out our dedicated SER Caxias vs Anapolis stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: SER Caxias the Favourite
- Moneyline SER Caxias 1.51 | Anapolis 6.00
- Draw 3.31
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The 1.51 on Caxias is short but defensible. They hold home advantage, a better league position, and a head-to-head win over this exact opponent in this exact competition. Anapolis at 6.00 reflects their status as a genuine underdog — they have not shown the consistency to justify backing away from home. The draw at 3.31 is the value play for cautious bettors given Caxias’ six draws this season, but to be honest, the home win is the stronger call given how poor Anapolis have been defensively. We would not chase the draw at those odds given the visitor’s recent 0-4 collapse.
Possible Starting Lineups
SER Caxias Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Marcelo Pitol
- DF: Lucas Cunha, Matheus Ferraz, Guilherme Guedes, Cristovam
- MF: Caíque, Maicon, João Paulo
- FW: Léo Gamalho, Paulinho Moccelin, Hyago
Without detailed player data from the provider, this lineup is projected from typical Série C squad patterns for Caxias under Strasser’s management. A 4-3-3 or compact 4-5-1 shape fits the team’s defensive-first approach evidenced by their five consecutive 0-0 results. Léo Gamalho, a striker with Série C pedigree, would be the focal point up front. The midfield trio needs to provide defensive cover first, with the wide forwards offering transition threat rather than sustained pressure.
Anapolis Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Danilo Fernandes
- DF: Edson, Vitor, Weverton, Paulinho
- MF: Elielton, Wendel, Leandro Salino
- FW: Tiago Marques, Douglas Morais, Matheus Oliveira
Anapolis’ projected lineup also reflects a 4-3-3 shape, though their defensive record suggests this unit struggles to hold its shape under pressure. After conceding four goals to Paysandu, the back four will likely be reshuffled. Douglas Morais carries the most creative threat in attack based on Série C performances, and Anapolis will need him to contribute if they are to avoid another heavy defeat on the road. Their midfield will face a significant workload trying to contain a home side playing at Estádio Centenário.
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Anapolis. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
SER Caxias win this match. The data points in one direction: home advantage, a head-to-head win over Anapolis in this same competition, a defensively sound recent run, and an opponent coming off a 0-4 defeat. Caxias have not been scoring, but they have not been losing either — and against a fragile Anapolis side, one goal may well be enough. We predict a 1-0 home win, with under 2.5 goals and Caxias to win to nil as the standout selections. Perhaps the most telling stat is Caxias’ six draws this season — when they do not draw, they tend to find a way to win rather than lose. Anapolis away from home, with their defensive issues, is exactly the type of opponent Caxias can grind past.
