Rafael Nogueira
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Santos welcome Mirassol to Estádio Urbano Caldeira in what is a relegation-zone battle with real consequences. Both sides sit in the bottom half of the Série A table, separated by just two points, making this a six-pointer neither can afford to drop. Santos carry significantly better form into this one, winning five of their last nine fixtures, while Mirassol have managed just one win in eight, making the hosts clear favorites despite their own inconsistency this season.
Two players stand out heading into this fixture. Willian Arão has been Santos’s most effective central midfielder, contributing two goals in five appearances while maintaining a high pass accuracy and controlling the tempo from deep. For Mirassol, Reinaldo offers a genuine attacking threat from the left side of defense, having scored once and assisted once in four appearances, generating nine shots and creating overloads in wide areas.
Santos have conceded just one goal across their last three matches in all competitions, keeping back-to-back clean sheets against Vasco (3-0) and Macara (0-0), a defensive run that signals real solidity at the back heading into this home fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:30 CEST |
Santos vs Mirassol Prediction
Santos at home against a Mirassol side that has lost four of their last eight away and overall matches is a strong setup for a home win. Santos have won five of their last nine across all competitions and have shown defensive discipline recently, conceding in just one of their last four games. Mirassol have scored three goals across their last five matches, and their attack lacks the firepower to consistently trouble a Santos backline that has tightened up under Cuca.
We predict a Santos win with a clean sheet as the headline outcome. The value in backing Santos on the moneyline is reasonable at around 1.88-1.94 on most books, given the 50% implied probability from the average bookmaker market. Mirassol’s 13% win rate over the last 30 days makes the away win at 4.10 very unattractive despite the odds.
Santos average just over one goal per game in their last five matches, and Mirassol’s defensive record (35 conceded in 22 league games) suggests Santos can find the net. Both teams scoring is less likely given Mirassol’s recent attacking output, three goals in five games, against a Santos defense that has been tightening up. Corners are moderate for both sides, with Santos generating 26 and Mirassol 24 across five matches, pointing to a game in the 8-10 corner range.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Santos to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Santos have been one of the more improved sides in the second half of the Brasileirão season, collecting five wins from nine matches in the last 30 days. Their Copa Sudamericana double-header against Macara produced a 2-1 win followed by a goalless draw, sandwiched around a commanding 3-0 league win over Vasco. The only blemish in recent weeks was a 0-2 home loss to Athletico PR, who sit third in the table. Santos are averaging 13.8 shots per game across the last five matches, and their pass accuracy of 82% reflects a controlled style under Cuca. With 12 yellow cards in five games, they are physical but not reckless, and their 62 free kicks conceded give opponents set-piece opportunities. The key concern remains their league position: 14th with 25 points from 22 games, only three points above the relegation zone.
Mirassol’s recent run has been difficult. They lost 1-5 to Flamengo in their last Brasileirão outing and were beaten 4-5 by LDU Quito in a high-scoring Copa Sudamericana tie, conceding five goals in both matches. Their only positive result recently was a 1-1 draw with LDU Quito in the first leg. Three wins from their last eight matches and a 13% win rate over 30 days paints a side low on confidence. They average 14.2 shots per game, which is competitive on paper, but their pass accuracy (84% completion rate on raw passes) drops to around 84% and their 61 fouls in five matches is the highest of the two sides, reflecting a reactive, disruption-based approach. With 13 yellow cards, they are the more disciplined in terms of cards relative to fouls, but the foul volume will hand Santos set-piece opportunities. Mirassol sit 17th with 23 points, three below Santos.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Santos | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 9 |
The six most recent meetings between these two clubs have produced 17 goals across six matches, averaging nearly three goals per game. Mirassol have won two of those six encounters and scored nine goals to Santos’s eight, including a 3-0 away win in the 2025 Série A. Santos hold the home edge, winning 2-1 in the 2025 Campeonato Paulista and 3-2 in the 2024 Série B at home, but this fixture is historically close regardless of venue.
🚨Check out our dedicated Santos vs Mirassol stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Santos the Favourite
- Moneyline Santos 1.88-1.94 | Mirassol 3.60-4.40
- Draw 3.30-3.65
- Over/Under Over 2.5 (implied from market) | Under 2.5
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes | No
The market is pointing strongly toward Santos, with bookmakers pricing them at 50% win probability on average. The range of Santos moneyline odds from 1.80 to 2.02 offers some line shopping value, with Betfury (2.02) and Pinnacle (1.94) sitting at the generous end. The draw at 3.30-3.65 reflects the historically tight nature of this fixture but Mirassol’s current form makes it less likely than the market suggests. Mirassol at 4.10 represents poor value given their recent results. The clean sheet angle for Santos, priced within the “win to nil” market, is where we see the best return given Mirassol’s scoring struggles.
Possible Starting Lineups
Santos Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Gabriel Brazão
- DF: João Ananias, Luan Peres, Gonzalo Escobar, Adonis Frías
- MF: João Schmidt, Christian Oliva, Willian Arão, Gabriel Menino
- FW: Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior, Gabriel Barbosa
Cuca has been consistent with a 4-2-3-1 shape across the last five matches. Gabriel Brazão starts in goal having appeared in all five fixtures with 13 saves. The defensive line builds around Luan Peres, who has contributed a goal from center-back, and Gonzalo Escobar providing cover. João Schmidt and Christian Oliva anchor the double pivot, with Schmidt completing 268 passes in five appearances. Willian Arão operates as the box-to-box option, and his two league goals make him a threat on late runs. Neymar, despite only three appearances, has three assists and nine shots, and remains the most unpredictable attacking presence in this squad. Gabriel Barbosa adds a second focal point with two goals in four games.
Mirassol Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Alex Muralha
- DF: João Victor Carroll Santana, Gabriel Knesowitsch, Willian Estefani Machado, Igor Formiga
- MF: Denilson Alves Borges, Neto Moura, Wallisson, Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo
- FW: Fernandinho, Bruno Santos de Oliveira
Rafael Guanaes has also settled on 4-2-3-1 as his preferred shape. Alex Muralha is the consistent starter in goal. The back four is anchored by João Victor Carroll Santana, who has scored once and accumulated six interceptions across five games, making him the most active defensive contributor. Denilson Alves Borges has the most fouls in the squad (9) and three yellow cards, making him a booking risk, particularly against a Santos side that will draw fouls. Reinaldo is the most dangerous player in this lineup, capable of driving forward from left back and generating shots. Bruno Santos de Oliveira leads the attacking line with seven shots in five appearances, though without a goal in that stretch.
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Mirassol. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Santos are in better shape in every measurable category heading into this fixture. Their defensive record across the last four games, three clean sheets, their home advantage at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, and Mirassol’s collapse in form (one win in eight, five goals conceded in each of their last two matches) all point in the same direction. Santos’s attack, anchored by Neymar’s creativity and Willian Arão’s goals from midfield, should find space against a Mirassol backline that has conceded 35 times in 22 league matches.
We predict a Santos win, most likely by a single goal margin, with Mirassol failing to score. The under 2.5 goals line and Santos to win to nil are the two bets we back with confidence. Mirassol’s high foul rate (61 in five games) will hand Santos set-piece opportunities, and with Neymar delivering from dead balls, one of those could prove decisive.
