Santos vs Macara Prediction: 14 August 2026 Copa Sudamericana

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Santos welcome Ecuadorian side Macara to the Estádio Urbano Caldeira for the Copa Sudamericana 2026 Round of 16. The Brazilian side carry strong home advantage on paper, yet Macara arrive in far better recent form, winning six of their last eight matches. Santos, by contrast, have won just three of their last seven and suffered a 0-2 defeat to Athletico PR in their most recent outing. Neymar, back at the club where he started, contributes 2 goals and 1 assist across his last four appearances and is the player most likely to decide this tie. For Macara, midfielder Matías Miranda has recorded 2 assists in just three matches and carries a red card suspension risk after already picking up a booking.

Hot stat: Santos have fired 103 total shots across their last five matches, nearly 40% more than Macara’s 62, yet Santos scored only 7 goals in that span compared to Macara’s 11, pointing to a significant finishing efficiency gap in Macara’s favour.

Santos vs Macara Prediction

Santos are heavy favourites at home, with bookmakers pricing them at roughly 66% implied probability. The home side’s 4-1-4-1 shape gives them width and midfield coverage, and their volume of shots indicates they create chances consistently. The issue is conversion: seven goals from 103 shots is poor, and Macara’s defensive unit, which averages more interceptions per game relative to their possession share, is disciplined enough to frustrate that attack.

Macara’s 4-2-3-1 setup suits a compact defensive block on the road, and their last five matches produced 11 goals, showing they are dangerous on the counter. With Santos leaking two goals in their last game and struggling to close out matches, a Macara goal is far from unlikely. We predict a Santos win, but the margin will be tight, and Macara covering the Asian handicap is the angle worth targeting.

Santos commit 52 fouls across five games, a high rate that gives away set-piece opportunities, while Macara’s 47 fouls show they are not shy about physicality either. Santos have accumulated 12 yellow cards in five matches compared to Macara’s 6, meaning Santos players are at higher risk of disrupting their own rhythm through suspensions. Macara’s cleaner disciplinary record allows them to press without the same risk. Santos’ pass accuracy of 2,437 out of 2,778 attempts reflects good ball retention at home, but Macara’s interception numbers suggest they can disrupt build-up play in the middle third.

Santos average 8.8 corners per game across their last five, which is a strong indicator of sustained attacking pressure. Macara average just 3 corners per game, so the corner market is heavily skewed toward the home side.

Team Analysis

Santos have been inconsistent over the past month, collecting three wins, two draws, and two losses from seven matches for a 43% win rate. Their last outing, a 0-2 home defeat to Athletico PR, was a concerning result given that Athletico are a strong domestic side. Before that, Santos beat Remo 1-0 and drew 0-0 with the same opponent across consecutive fixtures, showing limited attacking output against lower-tier opposition. The 4-2 win over Universidad Central de Venezuela and the 2-2 draw with Chapecoense earlier in the run show Santos can score in bunches but struggle to defend leads. For the full year, Santos have won just 14 of 43 matches, a 33% win rate that underlines their broader inconsistency in 2026.

Macara have been the stronger side in recent weeks, winning six of eight matches in the last 30 days for a 75% win rate. Their most recent result was a 2-1 victory over Barcelona SC, a well-regarded Ecuadorian side, which confirms their current momentum. Before that, they beat Guayaquil City 2-1, drew with Gualaceo SC 1-1, thrashed Sociedad Deportiva Aucas 4-1, and defeated Deportivo Cuenca 3-0. That run of five matches produced 12 goals, and the only dropped points came against a lower-ranked opponent. Their season-long record of 17 wins from 36 matches (47%) outpaces Santos’ annual return and reflects a more settled squad.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

These two clubs meet for the first time in this Copa Sudamericana fixture, with no prior head-to-head data available from previous competitive matches. The statistics below reflect each team’s individual performance across their last five games.

🚨 Check out our dedicated Santos vs Macara stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Santos the Favourite

• Moneyline Santos 1.39–1.44 | Macara 7.00–10.48
• Draw 3.90–5.36
• Over/Under Over 2.5 (see bookmakers) | Under 2.5 (see bookmakers)
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes (see bookmakers) | No (see bookmakers)

Santos’ odds cluster tightly between 1.39 and 1.44 across most books, with Pinnacle and Stake both at 1.44, which represents reasonable value for a home side in a continental knockout tie. Macara’s price ranging from 7.00 to 10.48 reflects their underdog status, but given their form, anything above 7.00 looks generous. The draw at 4.00–4.70 is fairly priced given Santos’ habit of dropping points. We lean toward Santos to win, but the BTTS market at current prices is the most attractive option given both teams’ recent goal output.

Possible Starting Lineups

Santos Possible Starting Eleven

Coach Cuca is expected to line up in his preferred 4-1-4-1 shape. Gabriel Brazão starts in goal, having played all five recent matches. The back four picks itself: Gonzalo Escobar and Adonis Frías as the more defensively active fullbacks, with João Ananias locking down his side consistently. Christian Oliva and João Schmidt form a disciplined midfield base, with Gabriel Menino providing the most dynamic contribution from midfield (1 goal, 1 assist). Miguelito operates as the advanced link in the midfield line, and Neymar leads the attack. He is the standout player to watch with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last four appearances, and his ability to draw fouls in dangerous areas adds another dimension to Santos’ set-piece threat.

Macara Possible Starting Eleven

Coach Guillermo Sanguinetti typically deploys a 4-2-3-1 structure. Rodrigo Rodríguez takes the gloves after featuring in four of the last five matches. The defensive trio of Jimenez, Medranda, and Bolanos provides the backbone, with Bolanos logging the most interceptions among the defenders. Jose Cazares anchors midfield with 9 interceptions across four matches, making him Macara’s most important defensive midfielder. Matías Miranda is the key creative threat with 2 assists in three games, though his red card in that same spell means he is one booking away from suspension. Jean Estacio contributes from a box-to-box role and adds set-piece delivery.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Santos start as clear home favourites, and the Estádio Urbano Caldeira will generate real pressure on Macara from the first whistle. Santos’ high shot volume and corner dominance (44 corners across five matches versus Macara’s 15) point to sustained territorial control. Neymar and Gabriel Menino are capable of unlocking any defence on their day.

To be honest, Macara’s numbers are hard to ignore. Eleven goals in five matches, a 75% win rate over the last month, and a disciplined defensive structure that limits opponents through interceptions and compact positioning suggest they will not simply roll over. Santos’ finishing inefficiency and their habit of conceding, as seen in the Athletico PR defeat and the Chapecoense draw, creates a genuine opening for Macara to score on the break.

We predict a Santos win by a single goal, with Macara finding the net at least once. A 2-1 scoreline in favour of Santos is the most likely outcome. BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals are the primary bets, with Santos Asian Handicap -0.5 offering solid value at current prices.

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