Sofia Quijada
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Santos Laguna host Chivas Guadalajara at Estadio TSM Corona on Matchday 4 of the Liga MX 2026 Apertura. Santos sit dead last in the table with zero points from three games, while Chivas are mid-table with four points, and the bookmakers reflect that gap clearly. What makes this fixture worth watching is that in five of the last five head-to-head meetings, Santos have failed to win at home against Chivas in Liga MX, and Chivas have scored in each of those contests.
Roberto Alvarado is the standout name in this fixture. The Chivas midfielder has scored three goals across his last five matches and leads his side in shots on target, making him the most direct attacking threat on the pitch. For Santos, Ezequiel Bullaude is the one player capable of changing the game, having scored twice and contributed an assist in his last five appearances, with 13 shots and consistent involvement across all phases of play.
Hot stat: Chivas fired 108 total shots across their last five matches, more than double Santos Laguna’s 50 in the same period. That shot volume underlines just how one-sided the attacking balance between these two sides has been lately.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga MX 2026 Apertura, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio TSM Corona, Torreon |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 03:10 CEST |
Santos Laguna vs Chivas Guadalajara Prediction
Chivas are the clear value pick here. They carry a 60% bookmaker probability, have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings, and arrive with far superior recent form. Santos have lost five of their last six matches across all competitions, are yet to score or earn a point in the Apertura, and conceded seven goals in just three league games. Chivas, despite a mixed run, beat Santos 3-0 in their last Liga MX meeting at this very fixture earlier in 2026.
Santos average just under one goal per game across their last five matches and their pass accuracy sits at 1,704 out of 2,056 attempts, reflecting a team that struggles to build through pressure. Chivas, by contrast, completed 3,024 of 3,394 passes, showing far more control. Santos picked up 11 yellow cards in five games compared to Chivas’ four, which points to a side that fouls out of defensive desperation rather than tactical discipline. Chivas’ 53 corner kicks in five games versus Santos’ 29 tells a similar story about territorial dominance.
- Main prediction: Chivas Guadalajara to win
- Alternative: Chivas Guadalajara to win to nil
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Chivas Guadalajara to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Santos Laguna have been in poor shape throughout the year, winning just six of 26 matches across all competitions and only one of their last six. Renato Paiva’s side lost to Club America 3-0 in their most recent Liga MX fixture and were beaten by Atlas 1-0 before that. Their only recent positive came in a friendly win over Philadelphia Union, which offers little competitive relevance. In the Apertura, they have conceded seven goals across three games without scoring once. Their attack, led by players like Lucas Di Yorio and Ramiro Sordo, has produced minimal output, and the squad’s high foul count combined with low passing accuracy reflects a side under real structural pressure.
Chivas Guadalajara arrive with a split record recently, winning two of their last six but showing more quality in individual performances. Their most recent result was a 2-1 win over Seattle Sounders, and they beat Juarez 1-0 earlier in the campaign. The 5-6 loss to Los Angeles is the outlier, a chaotic friendly that produced 11 goals and is unlikely to reflect their defensive setup against a Liga MX rival. Gabriel Milito’s side has 15 wins from 30 matches this year, and their squad depth, particularly the midfield trio of Luis Romo, Roberto Alvarado, and Fernando González, gives them a clear edge over Santos at both ends of the pitch.
🚨Check out our dedicated Santos Laguna vs Chivas Guadalajara stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Chivas Guadalajara the Favourite
- Moneyline Santos Laguna 5.00 | Chivas Guadalajara 1.45
- Draw 4.20
The odds tell a straightforward story. Chivas at 1.45 with Everygame reflects their dominance in this fixture and their overall quality advantage. Santos at 5.00 is technically a long-shot value play, but their current form makes that price hard to back seriously. The draw at 4.20 is also fair given how one-sided recent head-to-head results have been. We see Chivas as strong value at those odds given Santos’ zero-point, zero-goal start to the Apertura.
Possible Starting Lineups
Santos Laguna Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Carlos Acevedo
- DF: Felipe Sánchez, Franco Pardo, Mauricio Cuevas, Efrain Orona
- MF: Carlos Gruezo, Salvador Mariscal, Francisco Villalba, Ezequiel Bullaude
- FW: Lucas Di Yorio, Ramiro Sordo
Santos are likely to line up in their regular 4-2-3-1 shape, with Gruezo and Mariscal sitting as a double pivot. Bullaude, the team’s top performer in recent weeks with two goals and an assist, will operate in the number ten role and is the player most likely to create something for Santos. Acevedo starts in goal after logging the most minutes. The backline of Sánchez, Pardo, Cuevas, and Orona has been exposed repeatedly this season, conceding freely, and that trend is unlikely to change here.
Chivas Guadalajara Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Raúl Rangel
- DF: Richard Ledezma, Bryan Gonzalez, Diego Campillo, Jose Castillo
- MF: Luis Romo, Fernando González, Roberto Alvarado, Brian Gutierrez
- FW: Armando González, Efrain Alvarez
Milito will likely stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has been Chivas’ base formation across their last five matches. Rangel takes the goalkeeper spot with the most appearances. Luis Romo anchors the midfield with 10 interceptions across five games, the best defensive contribution in the squad. Roberto Alvarado, operating just behind the forwards, is the most dangerous player on the pitch and will be the key threat against a leaky Santos backline. Armando González leads the line and has registered nine shots in five games, offering constant pressure.
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Santos Laguna. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
The data points in one direction. Santos Laguna are winless in the Apertura with seven goals conceded and none scored. Chivas have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings and arrive with superior passing, shot volume, and individual quality. Santos’ high foul count and low pass accuracy suggest they will be under pressure for long stretches, and Chivas’ corner and set-piece activity should create regular danger. We predict a Chivas win, likely by a clean sheet margin. The Chivas win to nil market is the best value option available for this fixture, and we back Alvarado and Romo to be central to that outcome.
