Santa Fe vs Once Caldas Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Primera A 2025 Match - 17.06.2025

Set for a pivotal night at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin in Bogotá, Santa Fe hosts Once Caldas in the Primera A 2025 Apertura Group B on June 17, 2025, with kick-off at 02:15 CEST. This encounter carries massive weight for Group B standings, with Santa Fe tied at the top, and Once Caldas seeking to bounce back after a challenging run of draws and defeats. The historic El Campin will provide an electric backdrop for this contest, where margins are razor-thin, and stakes are heightened by Colombia’s passionate footballing culture.

In this match, all eyes will be on Santa Fe’s experienced striker Hugo Rodallega, whose scoring prowess in recent outings has been vital, and Once Caldas’s versatile midfielder Alejandro García, who influences both phases of play with composure and creativity. Both teams will look to exploit each other’s defensive vulnerabilities while aiming to stay disciplined amid rising tension.

A “hot stat”: Santa Fe have scored in every home game of this phase, while Once Caldas have managed just four goals in their last five matches—reflecting contrasting attacking trends that could tip the balance.

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Santa Fe vs Once Caldas predictions

Me best bet: Santa Fe to win. The hosts hold a home advantage at El Campin and have shown superior attacking efficiency, not just statistically, but through Rodallega’s form and the team’s ball retention. Their 50% bookmaker win probability, coupled with Once Caldas’s ongoing struggle to convert chances (only 25% win rate in the last 30 days), offers value given recent head-to-head dominance and home momentum. Expect Santa Fe to control proceedings and edge out Once Caldas in a tightly contested encounter.

Both sides typically deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, but diverge in execution. Santa Fe average high ball possession (notably over 1300 passes at 74% accuracy in the last five), resulting in more sustained pressure and territorial dominance. Their foul count is moderate (73 fouls and 15 yellow cards in last five matches), suggesting physical play but relative discipline. Once Caldas, by contrast, have amassed 60 fouls and 12 yellow cards—indicating aggression but occasional lack of control. Set pieces could play a key role, given Santa Fe’s recent proficiency with two free-kick goals.

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Santa Fe vs Once Caldas Most recent H2Hs

Santa Fe have dominated the recent duels against Once Caldas, notching three consecutive wins, including the recent 2-1 victory in this Group B phase. While Once Caldas typically enjoy more shots and higher interception figures, their inability to convert territory into goals has been evident. Set-piece battles have produced numerous corners and free kicks but Santa Fe’s sharper finishing and home efficiency have routinely provided the edge.

🚨Read our full Santa Fe vs Once Caldas stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Santa Fe have scored in 100% of their home games in this Group B phase.
• Once Caldas are yet to win in Group B, registering three draws and one loss.
• Hugo Rodallega has contributed to over half of Santa Fe’s goals in the last five matches.
• Both teams average over eight corners per match, highlighting attacking ambitions and wide play.
• No red cards for either side in their last five, underscoring controlled aggression despite frequent bookings.

Santa Fe vs Once Caldas score prediction: 1-0

This contest is expected to be tight, with Santa Fe’s home form and Rodallega’s goal threat making the hosts favourites. Once Caldas’s defensive discipline might keep them in contention, especially with Alejandro García orchestrating play from midfield, but Santa Fe’s ability to capitalize on limited chances—and home support at El Campin—should see them edge it by a solitary goal.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Santa Fe the favourite

Bookmakers justifiably make Santa Fe the clear favourites at odds between 1.80-1.91, with Once Caldas a lengthy underdog up to 4.70. The attractive under 2.5 goals (1.65) reflects both sides’ recent lack of high-scoring matches and defensive improvement. The low price on “No” for both teams to score (1.70) highlights Once Caldas’s offensive struggles and Santa Fe’s home solidity.

Santa Fe vs Once Caldas Over/Under Analysis

• Santa Fe have kept a low goals count in three of their last five Group B games.
• Once Caldas have scored just four goals in their last five matches.
• Santa Fe’s matches average 2.0 goals per match over the last five.
• Tip: Under 2.5 goals remains the best value, reflecting recent head-to-heads and both teams’ conversion rates.

Santa Fe Preview

Santa Fe come off a mixed recent spell, having bounced back from a tough loss to Atletico Nacional (1-2) with a spirited 2-1 win just prior. Their Group B campaign has included significant highs—particularly a recent strong win over Once Caldas—contrasted by a heavy defeat to Alianza Petrolera earlier. The side relies on experience up front (Rodallega) and stability at the back, cycling possession efficiently and seizing set-piece opportunities. Defensive lapses have occurred, yet overall structure and a disciplined midfield core help balance their approach.

Once Caldas Preview

Once Caldas’s recent results reflect their struggle to piece together a winning run—three draws and a loss in this group signify resilience but also a lack of cutting edge. Their 2-2 draw last time out against Millonarios showcased flashes of attacking intent, but inconsistency in front of goal and occasional defensive lapses hinder progress. Hernán Herrera’s 4-2-3-1 mirrors Santa Fe’s on paper, but transitions are slower while creativity depends heavily on García and flanks. Defensive workload is high, and frequent bookings suggest the need for heightened discipline against sharper opposition.

The Verdict

As the expert team at TipsGG, our main pick is for Santa Fe to secure victory. Santa Fe’s home form, combined with superior conversion rates and structured possession play, gives them the edge over a workmanlike yet goal-shy Once Caldas. We estimate Santa Fe’s win probability at 50 percent, as supported by our AI prediction engine, while Once Caldas retain a 21 percent chance mainly through defensive resilience and potential set-piece shocks. Expect a tactical battle, with Santa Fe ultimately rising to the occasion.

How to watch Santa Fe vs Once Caldas

• When? June 17, 2025, at 02:15 CEST.
• Where? Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin, Bogotá.
• How to watch: National TV (Win Sports), streaming via official Copa Colombia platforms.
• Favorite: Santa Fe

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