Sofia Quijada
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Santa Fe welcome Deportivo Cali to El Campin with both sides packed tightly into the Clausura mid-table, separated by a single point. Santa Fe sit sixth on 16, Cali eighth on 15, and neither has pulled away from the pack despite decent recent form. The teams met earlier this year in the Apertura and shared the points 1-1, a scoreline that hints this rematch could be closer than the home side’s superior ranking suggests.
Watch Nahuel Bustos up top for Santa Fe. He has scored 3 of the club’s 7 goals across the last five matches and looks the one player capable of deciding this game on his own. Cali will lean on Eduard Bello, who has netted twice in the same span and carries the highest shot volume among the visiting forwards.
Hot stat: Santa Fe’s attack has been almost a one-man show recently. Bustos alone matches the combined output of Cali’s four different scorers (Dinenno, Bello, Benedetti and Martinez) over their last five outings, a sign Santa Fe’s threat is more concentrated but also more exposed if Bustos is shut down.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera A 2026 Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio El Campin, Bogota |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 03:00 CEST |
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali prediction
We back Santa Fe to win this one. The home side sits above Cali in the table, holds a clear home advantage at El Campin, and their last five matches produced more shots (61 versus 53) and fewer disciplinary problems than their visitors. Cali have racked up 13 yellow cards and 53 free kicks conceded in the same stretch against Santa Fe’s 10 cards and 31 free kicks, a gap that points to a more disciplined Santa Fe unit controlling territory and fouling less under pressure.
Cali’s passing numbers (1616 attempted, lower accuracy than Santa Fe’s 2120) suggest they struggle to keep the ball for long spells, which should suit Santa Fe’s counter-based approach through Bustos and Rodallega. Cali’s extra corners conceded and higher offside count also hint at a back line prone to being caught out, something Santa Fe’s front players, particularly Bustos with 13 shots in five games, should look to exploit.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Santa Fe to win & Bustos to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Santa Fe arrive off a convincing 4-1 win over Alianza Petrolera, with Bustos and the front line clicking against a weaker opponent. Before that they lost 0-2 away to Vasco, drew 0-0 with the same side in an earlier leg, and beat Deportes Tolima 1-0. A 2-2 draw against Fortaleza rounds out the sample. Two wins, two draws and a loss in five outings is a mixed but reasonably solid run, and the home form against lesser sides has been particularly sharp.
Deportivo Cali beat Cucuta 3-0 in their last match, a comfortable result against one of the league’s weaker sides. Before that they edged Once Caldas 2-1, drew 1-1 with Millonarios, lost 0-3 to a strong Atletico Nacional side, and drew 1-1 with Bucaramanga. Two wins, two draws and a loss mirrors Santa Fe’s recent record on paper, but the heavy defeat to Nacional shows Cali can be exposed against sharper attacking sides, a concern given how Santa Fe’s front three have performed lately.
🚨Check out our dedicated Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Santa Fe the favourite
- Moneyline Santa Fe 2.11 | Deportivo Cali 3.82
- Draw 3.10
The market leans clearly toward Santa Fe, with implied probability sitting around 44 percent against Cali’s 26. The gap fits the table standings and the home side’s better recent shot volume and discipline. We think the price on Santa Fe at odds above 2.00 still offers value given how one-sided the underlying stats look, though the draw at 3.10 is not to be dismissed given how tight the last Apertura meeting between these two was.
Possible Starting Lineups
Santa Fe possible starting eleven
- GK: Weibmar Asprilla
- DF: Iván Scarpeta, Emanuel Olivera, Jeison Angulo, Luis Palacios
- MF: Jhojan Torres, Daniel Torres, Maximiliano Lovera
- FW: Nahuel Bustos, Hugo Rodallega, Emerson Rodriguez
Pablo Repetto has largely stuck with the same group across the last five games, and the 4-2-3-1 shape gives Bustos support from Rodallega and Emerson Rodriguez in the final third. Scarpeta and Angulo have played every minute at the back, giving the side stability to build from deep and get the ball forward quickly to the front three.
Deportivo Cali possible starting eleven
- GK: Pedro Gallese
- DF: Jose Carlos Caldera, Edwin Velasco, Leyser Chaverra, Fabian Viafara
- MF: Gustavo Cuéllar, Nicolás Benedetti, Steven Rodríguez, Johan Martinez
- FW: Juan Dinenno, Eduard Bello
Rafael Dudamel favours a 4-4-2 with Gallese, a busy shot-stopper with 18 saves in four games, protected by a back four that has barely rotated. Bello and Dinenno lead the line, both carrying goals and shot volume from recent matches, while Cuéllar anchors midfield with the highest pass count on the team.
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Deportivo Cali. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Santa Fe to edge this out at home. The shot numbers, discipline record and standings all point the home side’s way, and Bustos looks in good enough form to make the difference on his own. Cali’s tendency to concede against sharper attacks, shown clearly in the 0-3 loss to Nacional, works against them here. To be honest, a draw would not shock us given how close the reverse fixture was, but our lean stays with Santa Fe winning a game with goals at both ends.
