San Martin Tucuman vs Almagro Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Primera Nacional 2025 Match - 14.06.2025

The curtain rises on an intriguing Primera Nacional 2025 regular season encounter as San Martin Tucuman face off with Almagro at Brann Stadion, Bergen, on June 14th, 2025, with kick-off at 22:00 CEST. The match, situated within the heart of the Argentine second division campaign, promises a compelling duel shaped by recent form, high-stakes ambitions, and tactical contrasts. San Martin Tucuman, coached by Ariel Martos, look to assert home dominance and cement their place among promotion contenders. Meanwhile, Jorge Cordon’s Almagro are determined to disrupt the table and extend their unbeaten streak.

For San Martin Tucuman, midfielder Ezequiel Cuevas stands out, having netted in recent rounds and orchestrated transitions from midfield. On the opposite side, Almagro’s Patricio Cucchi displayed clinical finishing and a knack for exploiting defensive lapses—his influence in the final third could tilt the balance.

Hot stat: In their last five matches, Almagro have received a staggering 15 yellow cards, the highest in the category, revealing both their assertive style and potential disciplinary vulnerability.

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San Martin Tucuman vs Almagro predictions

Me best bet: San Martin Tucuman to win. Backed by superior home record and tactical cohesion, San Martin Tucuman’s structured approach under Ariel Martos contrasts with Almagro’s recent disciplinary lapses. The home side generated a 40% win rate in the last 30 days (with two wins in five), and have lost only twice all season—evidence of consistency rarely matched in this division. Almagro remain unbeaten in five, but their three draws indicate bluntness in converting control into goals, and their accumulation of yellow cards (15 in 5 matches) suggests susceptibility against focused opposition.

Stylistically, San Martin Tucuman employ a compact 4-4-2, prioritizing defensive solidity backed by an effective midfield press. Their averages over the last five matches—3 goals scored, 21 total shots, and disciplined play (4 yellows, 0 reds)—contrast starkly with Almagro’s more chaotic approach. Almagro also use a 4-4-2 but average 15 yellow cards and 2 reds across their last five, underscoring a combative mindset that, under tight officiating, could lead to suspensions or strategic handicaps mid-match. Both teams press high but San Martin’s ball recovery in the central corridor often transitions into fast breaks, especially when Cuevas and Garcia link play.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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San Martin Tucuman vs Almagro Most recent H2Hs

Their last head-to-head in the current Primera Nacional campaign resulted in a tactical stalemate, with neither side able to unlock the opposing defense. San Martin Tucuman dominated set-pieces and possession spells, while Almagro’s resilience and disciplined shape led to more fouls and interrupted rhythm. Both teams trended toward physical confrontation, as evidenced by nearly 30 fouls combined, but lacked the creative final ball to break deadlock.

🚨Read our full San Martin Tucuman vs Almagro stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Almagro average 3 yellow cards per match, nearly double the league median.
• San Martin Tucuman’s pass accuracy remains above 75% when playing at home.
• Both teams utilize a 4-4-2, emphasizing solidity and wing play.
• Across the last five matches, Almagro’s top scorer is Patricio Cucchi, while Ezequiel Cuevas leads for San Martin Tucuman.
• Almagro are unbeaten in their last five but have won only three, indicating high draw potential.
• San Martin Tucuman have the fourth lowest goals conceded tally in the league (goal difference +7).

San Martin Tucuman vs Almagro score prediction: 1-0

Expect a tightly contested affair decided by moments of precision rather than open play. Given both teams’ defensive rigor and Almagro’s tendency toward disruptive fouling, a low-scoring encounter is likely. Ezequiel Cuevas, for San Martin, possesses the quality to capitalize on a solitary opportunity, while goalkeeper Darío Sand’s composure remains vital in thwarting occasional Almagro breaks. Almagro’s key forward Patricio Cucchi may be starved of service if San Martin’s central midfield can control tempo and duels.

Pre-game odds and win probability: San Martin Tucuman the favourite

The odds decisively favor San Martin Tucuman as hosts, with the home victory priced around 1.80 versus Almagro’s lengthy 4.90. The draw, at 3.05, reflects Almagro’s recent unbeaten but low-scoring form. Meanwhile, market skepticism about a goal glut aligns with both teams’ recent records—under 2.5 goals, at 1.54, looks the value play. With Almagro’s frequent bookings and San Martin’s measured structure, expect a controlled tempo and potential grind as the visiting side prioritize containment.

San Martin Tucuman vs Almagro Over/Under Analysis

• 4 out of the last 5 San Martin Tucuman matches ended under 2.5 goals.
• 3 of 5 Almagro matches finished with fewer than 3 goals.
• Both sides averaged fewer than 1.5 goals per match across recent fixtures.
• San Martin Tucuman’s defense conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 matches.
• Expect physical midfield battles, increasing chances for stoppages and lower rhythm.

San Martin Tucuman Preview

San Martin Tucuman arrive at Brann Stadion following a narrow 0-1 loss to San Miguel, though previous outings saw them claim crucial points (2-1 over Quilmes, 1-1 with Racing Cordoba). A recurring theme in Martos’ side is compactness out of possession and judicious pressing, evidenced by their league-best defensive discipline. The 4-4-2 setup enables dual strikers to stretch opposition lines, while midfield pivot Cuevas orchestrates transitions. Consistency at the back—anchored by captain Darío Sand—forms the foundation of recent results, even when attacking output wanes against resolute defenses.

Almagro Preview

Almagro enter with spirited form, unbeaten in their last five outings with wins over Patronato and San Miguel, and recent draws against Club Atletico Guemes and Ferro Carril Oeste. Coach Jorge Cordon values intensity and midblock pressure, but the price has been a surfeit of cautions (2 reds and 15 yellows in five matches) and sporadic lapses in defensive shape. Playmakers Julian Vitale and Maximiliano Luayza strive to control tempo, while Patricio Cucchi’s movement provides attacking threat. Still, Almagro’s risk-taking often leads to open transitions and fouls in dangerous areas—an area to watch.

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As a TipsGG team expert, my main pick is for San Martin Tucuman to edge out Almagro—benefitting from home support, disciplined organization, and higher attacking intent. The AI engine gives San Martin Tucuman a 51 percent probability to triumph, factoring in their strong league position, defensive metrics, and Almagro’s tendency toward disciplinary problems. Anticipate a chess-like contest punctuated by physical duels, with the home side leveraging set-pieces and transitions for the decisive moment. If Almagro can channel their aggressiveness without overstepping refereeing limits, they may frustrate, but goalscoring remains their main limitation against such organized opposition.

How to watch San Martin Tucuman vs Almagro

When?
Kick-off: 14.06.2025, 22:00 CEST

Where?
Brann Stadion, Bergen

How to watch:
Tune into local Argentine broadcasters with online streaming via official Primera Nacional platforms (geo-restrictions may apply).

Favorite: San Martin Tucuman

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