Sofia Quijada
San Martin Tucuman host Almagro at Estadio La Ciudadela in a Primera Nacional clash that pits 9th place against 32nd. The gap in the standings is significant, with San Martin sitting on 21 points from 12 games compared to Almagro’s 12 from the same number of matches. What makes this fixture interesting is how Almagro arrived here: they beat Atletico Rafaela 1-0 last time out, snapping a run of poor form just before facing one of the stronger sides in the division.
San Martin’s Diego Diellos, who contributed an assist in the last match, provides creativity from the front line and will be key to unlocking Almagro’s defensive shape. For the visitors, midfielder Julian Vitale logged the full 90 minutes against Rafaela and is the engine that keeps Almagro’s press organized.
Hot stat: San Martin Tucuman’s only defeat in their last 12 league matches came against Agropecuario, a side ranked far below them in the global club rankings, which underlines the home side’s consistency in this campaign.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera Nacional 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio La Ciudadela, San Miguel de Tucuman |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:00 CEST |
San Martin Tucuman vs Almagro Prediction
San Martin Tucuman are the clear pick here. They hold a 5W-6D-1L record this year, with that one loss being a narrow 2-0 defeat to Agropecuario. Their home advantage at La Ciudadela, combined with Almagro’s league record of just 3 wins from 12 and a -7 goal difference, makes the hosts very hard to oppose. The bookmakers agree, pricing San Martin at around 1.61-1.64 across most books.
Both teams favor a 4-4-2 shape, so the midfield battle will be compact and physical. San Martin averaged 5 yellow cards in their most recent available match data, suggesting they press aggressively and are not shy about fouling. Almagro, with 3 yellow cards in their last recorded match, are slightly more disciplined, but their 6 corner kicks in that game shows they do create wide pressure. San Martin’s lower foul count in that same data window points to a team that wins the ball more cleanly, which is an advantage in tight, transitional matches.
Almagro have scored in only 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded 14 goals in 12 league games. San Martin’s attack has found the net 13 times in 12 games. A low-scoring home win is the most logical outcome.
- We predict San Martin Tucuman to win at odds around 1.61-1.64 (Pinnacle, bet365, Vave)
- We predict Under 2.5 goals given both sides’ recent scoring patterns
- We predict BTTS: No, with Almagro struggling to find the net consistently
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | San Martin Tucuman to win to nil |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
San Martin Tucuman have been one of the more consistent sides in the Primera Nacional this season. Their most recent match ended in a 1-0 win over Patronato, a result that extended their unbeaten run in the league. Before that, they played out a 0-0 draw with Tristan Suarez and a 2-1 victory over Atletico Rafaela, showing they can grind results when needed. The 5-6 loss to Banfield stands out as an anomaly, but that was a Copa Argentina fixture against top-flight opposition, not a league game. In league action, San Martin have been solid, conceding just 8 goals in 12 matches while scoring 13. Coach Alejandro Orfila has built a team that is hard to break down at home and effective on the counter.
Almagro’s recent form tells a different story. Their 1-0 win over Atletico Rafaela last week was only their second win in their last eight matches. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Temperley, lost 0-1 to Deportivo Maipu, and suffered a heavy 1-6 defeat to Gimnasia Jujuy. That Jujuy result is telling: Almagro gave up 6 goals in a single game, pointing to serious defensive fragility. They have conceded 14 goals in 12 league matches and scored just 7. Coach Carlos Mayor has a squad that lacks depth and consistency, and travelling to San Miguel de Tucuman to face a top-half side makes this a very difficult assignment.
🚨 Check out our dedicated San Martin Tucuman vs Almagro stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: San Martin Tucuman the Favourite
- Moneyline San Martin Tucuman 1.61-1.64 | Almagro 5.60-8.00
- Draw 3.05-3.44
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds market is firmly behind San Martin Tucuman. At 1.61-1.64, there is not enormous value in the straight win, but Pinnacle’s 1.64 is the best available and reflects the true probability better than the outlier at 1.57. Almagro at 5.60-8.00 is a wide range, with bet365 offering the most generous 8.00 for an away win, though the underlying form does not support backing the visitors. The draw at 3.10-3.44 is a reasonable price given San Martin’s tendency to draw, but their home record and Almagro’s poor away form make it less attractive.
Possible Starting Lineups
San Martin Tucuman Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Nahuel Manganelli
- DF: E. Parnisari, Victor Salazar
- MF: Santiago Briñone, Nicolas Eduardo Castro, J. Juárez
- FW: Diego Diellos, Gonzalo Rodríguez
Based on available data, Nahuel Manganelli starts in goal, with Parnisari and Salazar anchoring the defensive line. Salazar picked up a yellow card in the last match, so he will need to be careful. Santiago Briñone is a key figure in midfield, also carrying a booking, and his ability to win the ball and distribute quickly suits San Martin’s counter-pressing style. Diego Diellos, who registered an assist against Patronato, is the most likely creative outlet up front. San Martin are expected to line up in their familiar 4-4-2 formation.
Almagro Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Emiliano Gonzalez
- DF: Gonzalo Asis
- MF: Julian Vitale, Franco Bustamante, Julian Marchioni
- FW: Joel Orlando, Enzo Martinez
Emiliano Gonzalez holds the goalkeeper position after logging 90 minutes in the Rafaela match. Julian Vitale, Franco Bustamante, and Julian Marchioni form the midfield core, with all three playing close to full matches in the last outing. Joel Orlando and Enzo Martinez lead the attack, though Martinez was substituted at the 60-minute mark last time, suggesting he may be used more sparingly here. Almagro will also set up in a 4-4-2, making this a mirror match tactically, where individual quality and home atmosphere are likely to decide the outcome.
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Almagro. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
San Martin Tucuman are in a strong position in the Primera Nacional, sitting 9th with games in hand on several teams above them. Their defensive record of just 8 goals conceded in 12 league games is the best argument for a clean sheet here. Almagro arrive having won only once in their last eight matches before the Rafaela result, and that single win does not mask a season-long pattern of defensive fragility and poor away performances. The head-to-head record also favors San Martin, who have won the most recent meeting in this edition of the Primera Nacional. We predict a San Martin Tucuman win to nil, with the home side controlling possession and limiting Almagro to very few genuine chances. The 4-4-2 vs 4-4-2 setup means the game could be tight in midfield, but San Martin’s superior quality and home support should be enough to see them through. Our recommended bet is San Martin Tucuman to win, with the best odds available at Pinnacle (1.64).
