Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction: 23.04.2026 Turkish Cup Quarterfinals Preview

As the Turkish Cup Quarterfinals reach their climax, Samsunspor host Trabzonspor at the Samsun 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in a fixture that captures the essence of Turkish football’s passion and unpredictability. While Trabzonspor enter with a stronger season record, Samsunspor’s recent resurgence and home advantage set the stage for a finely balanced contest. Notably, both teams employ a familiar 4-2-3-1 setup, promising a tactical battle in midfield and on the flanks.

Key players to keep an eye on include Samsunspor’s creative midfielder Carlo Holse, who has netted three goals in his last three appearances and brings a dynamic threat going forward, and Trabzonspor’s physical striker Paul Onuachu, whose presence in the box and aerial prowess can tilt the balance in high-pressure moments. The midfield battle between Samsunspor’s Antoine Makoumbou and Trabzonspor’s Ozan Tufan could prove decisive, with both players dictating tempo and distribution.

The “hot stat” heading into this clash: Samsunspor have outshot their opponents 60 to 41 in their last five matches, a clear indicator of their offensive intent at home.

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Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor prediction

For punters and passionate fans alike, the most compelling value in this matchup lies in the “Both Teams to Score – Yes” market. Samsunspor have scored in all of their last five matches and conceded in four of those, while Trabzonspor have shown resilience but allowed goals against strong opposition. The underlying numbers — Samsunspor’s 60 shots in five matches versus Trabzonspor’s 41 — reinforce the expectation of an open game, especially given the stakes and both sides’ proclivity to commit players forward.

Samsunspor average nearly 12 fouls and two yellow cards per match in recent outings, reflecting their aggressive pressing style, while Trabzonspor maintain more discipline with five yellow cards across their last five. Both teams favor controlled possession, but Samsunspor’s 1968 passes to Trabzonspor’s 1250 in the last five matches signal a willingness to build patiently from the back. However, neither side is immune to defensive lapses — both have conceded in key matches, and Samsunspor’s 27 corners won indicate a strong set-piece threat. Expect fireworks, tactical nuances, and a result that could swing on a single moment of brilliance or a defensive slip.

Team Analysis

Samsunspor: Thorsten Fink’s side come into this tie on the back of a morale-boosting 2-1 win over Besiktas, showcasing their ability to convert chances and withstand pressure from elite opponents. Prior wins against Eyupspor and a competitive 2-2 draw with Konyaspor underline their attacking potential, but a 1-4 loss to Rizespor is a reminder of their defensive vulnerabilities. Across their last five, Samsunspor have scored seven and conceded eight, leaning on the creativity of Holse and the industry of Makoumbou in midfield. Their home form is bolstered by a vocal crowd, and their high pressing, as seen in 59 fouls and 10 yellow cards, shows a willingness to disrupt opponents’ rhythm.

Trabzonspor: Managed by Fatih Tekke, Trabzonspor’s most recent outings paint a picture of consistency. A 1-1 draw with Basaksehir and Alanyaspor suggests a conservative approach against solid teams, but their 2-1 win over Galatasaray stands out as a statement result. With a 12-3-2 record this year and just five yellow cards in their last five, Trabzonspor pair defensive solidity with patient build-up play. They’ve scored four and conceded three in their last five, with Onuachu and Tufan pivotal in the attacking third and Savić marshalling the back line. The team’s lower corner count (13) hints at a more measured approach, relying on efficiency rather than volume.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Trabzonspor the favourite

• Moneyline Samsunspor 2.62 | Trabzonspor 2.42
• Draw 3.43
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.98 | Under 2.5 1.78
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.88 | No 1.92

The bookmakers narrowly favor Trabzonspor, reflecting their superior win rate (71 percent this year) and higher ranking in Turkish football. However, odds on both teams are close, highlighting Samsunspor’s home advantage and recent form. The market expects goals, with Over 2.5 hovering near evens and BTTS priced similarly. This suggests that while Trabzonspor are marginal favorites, punters see genuine upset potential — a testament to Samsunspor’s home resilience and attacking output.

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Possible Starting Lineups

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My take on the Match

Given both teams’ attacking strengths and recent defensive inconsistencies, I expect a high-tempo match with chances at both ends. Trabzonspor’s edge in experience and recent form makes them slight favorites, but Samsunspor’s home advantage and creativity could force extra time or a late twist. My main pick is “Both Teams to Score – Yes” with a lean towards Trabzonspor to edge it, either in regular time or on penalties. This tie has all the ingredients of a classic: tactical intrigue, individual brilliance, and the relentless energy that defines Turkish Cup football.

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