Samsunspor vs Shkendija Prediction: 26.02.2026 UEFA Conference League Knockout

The stage is set for a fascinating UEFA Conference League knockout clash as Samsunspor host Shkendija at the storied Samsun 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. Both clubs approach this fixture in contrasting moods: Samsunspor, buoyed by a tight 1–0 away win in the first leg, eye consistency, while Shkendija yearn to overturn a slender deficit with their distinctive attacking flair. The subplot? Both teams have demonstrated surprisingly divergent approaches in their recent matches—will pragmatism outmuscle adventure on Turkish soil?

Key players to keep an eye on include Samsunspor’s prolific forward Marius Mouandilmadji, whose knack for timely goals offers Fink’s side an edge, and midfield orchestrator Olivier Ntcham, whose creativity and ball progression will be vital. For Shkendija, watch out for their energetic frontman Besart Ibraimi and the workmanlike Ronaldo Romario Webster, both pivotal to sparking an early fightback.

Perhaps the ‘hot stat’ worth noting: Samsunspor attempted a whopping 93 shots in their last five matches—a testament to their attacking tenacity when playing at pace.

🏅Best bets for Samsunspor vs Shkendija at WinSpirit with a Welcome bonus 100% up to 100$ and 25% Freebet💰

Samsunspor vs Shkendija prediction

The best value prediction leans towards a home win for Samsunspor. Their greater squad depth, superior xG in recent matches (particularly at home), and sharper defensive organisation—conceding just once across their last two European ties—stand out. Shkendija’s away record is solid domestically, but the gulf in Conference League experience and the slight deficit make it a difficult ask, especially away in Turkey’s hostile atmosphere.

Both teams show a penchant for direct play: Samsunspor average 14.2 total shots per game and enjoy dictating tempo—evidenced by their impressive pass accuracy (approximately 87 percent in the last five). However, that attacking zest comes with defensive vulnerabilities, as shown by 11 yellow cards and 71 total fouls in five fixtures. Shkendija favour controlled transitions—fewer cards (just 3 yellows) and fouls (20 over five matches), but they generate fewer shooting chances (24 shots in five), relying on efficient finishing. Expect a match where Samsunspor’s aggression might draw cards and result in set-piece drama, while Shkendija’s discipline could offer them a counter-punch.

Team Analysis

Samsunspor:
Their recent run has been mixed—2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats in the last 6, yet the side rebounded with a crucial 1–0 win over Shkendija last time out. The 4-2-3-1 shape gives them a solid base, with Mouandilmadji’s four goals in six up top and Ntcham’s link play in midfield pivotal. They registered 93 shots and 71 fouls over their latest five matches, indicating an aggressive, front-foot style but sometimes at the expense of structure. Defensively, Rick Van Drongelen and Lubomír Šatka provide steel, limiting clear chances. The clean sheet against Karagumruk in a 0-0 draw further cements their home resilience.

Shkendija:
Shkendija, for their part, have shown a knack for dramatic sequences: coming off a narrow defeat to Samsunspor, they edged Sileks 2–1 and hammered Tikves 4–1 in their prior outings. Jeton Bekjiri favours an adaptive 4-2-3-1, but the side’s total of six goals in five signals attacking competence. Concerns lie in overall shot creation and pass accuracy—just 404 passes in their last five, at an 81 percent completion rate. Fewer fouls and cards reflect composure, yet they may struggle imposing control in a high-intensity away tie. Baboucarr Gaye in goal has flashed reliability, though he faces a stiff test against Samsunspor’s directness.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Samsunspor vs Shkendija stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Samsunspor the favourite

• Moneyline Samsunspor 1.32 | Shkendija 9.20
• Draw 5.10
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.85
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.45 | No 1.50

Bookmakers clearly see Samsunspor as favourites, with the home odds hovering near 1.32 and Shkendija out at 9+. This reflects Samsunspor’s robust defensive record at home and their attacking output. The Under 2.5 odds (1.85) are intriguing given both teams’ conservative approach last time out, while BTTS ‘No’ favours a scenario where Shkendija struggle to break the hosts’ lines. For those who believe in cup drama, the draw—priced generously—is tempting, but the gulf in squad efficiency says otherwise.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

Possible Starting Lineups

Samsunspor possible starting eleven

Thorsten Fink will likely lean on a trusted 4-2-3-1 setup, with Van Drongelen and Šatka forming the spine at the back and Holse’s energetic link play further up. Mouandilmadji’s sharp eye for goal should ensure Samsunspor maintain attacking thrust. Ntcham provides guile and defensive work-rate in midfield, while watch for Holse’s creative drive. This mix promises balance, with an adventurous flavour on the flanks.

Shkendija possible starting eleven

Bekjiri should persist with the 4-2-3-1, hoping Ibraimi leads the counter charge up front. Gaye is the standout in goal, with Zejnulai anchoring a backline that must resist Samsunspor’s whirlwind attacks. Webster is tasked to orchestrate from deep, while Spahiu and Alhassan marshal transitions. Tamba’s physicality could unsettle on set pieces. Expect Shkendija to sit deeper and look to spring forward at opportune moments.

Best football betting sites and Bonuses

My take on the Match

We fancy Samsunspor to win again, potentially by a two-goal margin. The Turkish side’s assertive style, home advantage, and Mouandilmadji’s thriving form should make the difference. Shkendija have the discipline to frustrate, but their creative limitations on the continent likely see them chasing shadows for periods. Expect a pulsating first half, with Samsunspor perhaps sealing it late, fuelled by their energetic midfield and clinical striker.

More useful links for football fans

• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG