Liam Duckstein
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Roma return to league duty at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday night unbeaten in Serie A and sitting third, yet the week left a mark. A 2-3 defeat to Manchester United in midweek snapped the rhythm just before Round 11 brings Sassuolo to town. Alberto Aquilani’s side sit 17th with eight points, winless in five, and they have just shipped four at home to Fiorentina. History points to a grind, because both league meetings last season ended 2-0 and 1-0 to Roma with clean sheets. Current form argues otherwise: Roma’s last five matches produced 28 goals, and Sassuolo have conceded 14 across their last four.
Two names shape this fixture. Keep an eye on Donyell Malen, because four goals and two assists from 20 shots in five matches make the Dutch forward Roma’s sharpest weapon, and a defense conceding 2.6 per game should grant him space. Armand Lauriente answers for Sassuolo with two goals, a dozen shots and 12 free kicks won over the same stretch.
The standout number sits with the hosts. Roma have scored 18 goals across their last five matches, with at least four goals in four of those games, and their matches averaged 5.6 total goals in that run. Sassuolo managed just seven goals and conceded 17 in their own five.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season (Italy) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Olimpico, Rome |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:45 CEST |
Roma vs Sassuolo prediction
Our primary call is a Roma win paired with over 2.5 goals, and we rate it the best value on the board. The outright home price of 1.27 to 1.32 is fair but thin, because the market already hands Roma a 74 percent win probability. The goals angle offers genuine padding. Roma’s last five games averaged 5.6 total goals, Sassuolo’s 4.8, and every one of Sassuolo’s last four defeats came by at least two goals. Roma have scored 2.8 per league round, the best attack in Serie A, against the division’s worst defense. To be honest, even a flat Roma display tends to create chances against a back line this open, so the win-plus-goals combo is where our money goes.
Discipline and tempo shape the script. The foul counts sit nearly level, 52 for Roma and 53 for Sassuolo across five matches, with eight yellow cards apiece and a single red for the visitors, so expect a physical but controlled contest with frequent stoppages. Roma convert territory into volume: 91 shots, 31 corners and 2,822 passes in five games, comfortably clear of Sassuolo’s 47 shots and 18 corners. Passing accuracy is almost identical at roughly 86 percent, which means the gap is ambition, not distribution. Sassuolo have strayed offside 16 times in five matches while running the channels, and Lauriente’s 12 free kicks won show how they manufacture set-piece chances.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Roma -1.5 Asian handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 goals |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 corners |
Team Analysis
Roma’s month holds one blemish. The 2-3 loss to Manchester United on Tuesday followed a 5-2 dismantling of Udinese, a 4-2 win over Cagliari, a 3-3 draw with Napoli and a 4-0 rout of Slovan Bratislava. The league record stays spotless: seven wins and three draws, 28 goals scored, a league-best +18 goal difference and only ten conceded. In our preview of Manchester United vs Roma we called a Roma win with both teams scoring, and the 2-3 result went against us. Nothing in the underlying numbers suggests a slide, since 18 goals, 91 shots and near-86 percent passing accuracy across the last five matches point to a side built to overwhelm.
Sassuolo’s recent results read like a distress call. Last time out they fell 2-4 at home to Fiorentina, a fourth straight defeat after a 2-6 beating by Lazio, a 0-2 loss to Como and a 2-4 defeat against Frosinone. The 1-1 draw with Milan is the only point from the last five rounds, and 14 goals conceded in the previous four tells the defensive story. The attack keeps chipping away, 16 league goals this term, and Lauriente and Berardi give Aquilani genuine outlets. In our preview of Sassuolo vs Fiorentina we backed Fiorentina to win a high-scoring game with both teams scoring, and the 2-4 result delivered it.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Roma won both league meetings last season and kept a clean sheet in each, 2-0 in January and 1-0 the previous October. Those were controlled, low-event games against a more compact Sassuolo. The current version of the visitors concedes almost three per round, so a repeat of that restraint looks unlikely.
| Statistic | Roma | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Roma vs Sassuolo stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Roma the favourite
- Moneyline Roma 1.32 | Sassuolo 9.75
- Draw 6.40
These quoted prices convert to roughly 74 percent for Roma, 15 percent for the draw and 11 percent for Sassuolo, which matches the bookmakers’ consensus to the decimal. Most books cluster between 1.25 and 1.32 on the hosts and 8.50 to 9.75 on the visitors, and one outlier quoting 1.09 on Roma is not worth a second glance. The draw sits at 5.75 to 6.40 and only appeals if you fear a midweek hangover in Rome. We see the 1X2 as correctly priced rather than generous, so the goals and handicap markets carry our stake.
Possible Starting Lineups
Roma possible starting eleven
- GK: Pierluigi Gollini
- DF: Wesley, Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Mario Hermoso
- MF: Marten de Roon, Bryan Cristante, Matias Soule, Rodrigo Mora, Niccolò Pisilli
- FW: Donyell Malen
Gasperini’s 4-2-3-1 picks itself on minutes. De Roon has logged 403 minutes as the screening hub with Cristante beside him, Wesley brings width from deep, and the Mancini-Ndicka axis sits in front of Gollini, who has 16 saves in four starts. Soule, Mora and Pisilli form the creative band behind Malen, whose 20 shots in five games mark him as the main finisher. Ghilardi, Balerdi and Molina all push for starts after chipping in with goals, so squad depth is not a concern for the hosts.
Sassuolo possible starting eleven
- GK: Stefano Turati
- DF: Duje Ćaleta-Car, Cas Odenthal, Sebastian Walukiewicz
- MF: Fali Cande, Nemanja Matić, Darryl Bakola, Josh Doig
- FW: Domenico Berardi, Armand Lauriente, Sebastiano Esposito
Aquilani’s 3-4-2-1 leans on experience through the spine. Matić has 250 passes and eight interceptions in five games and screens the back three with Bakola, while Cande and Doig patrol the flanks, Doig’s 353 minutes the highest among the defenders. Berardi and Lauriente float behind Esposito and carry nearly all of the creative burden, with Lauriente’s 12 shots the team high. Turati keeps the gloves on 270 minutes ahead of Murić, and Berardi’s three yellow cards in five matches flag a disciplinary watch.
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Sassuolo. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a 3-1 Roma win. The table frames it: 24 points and +18 against eight points and -10, the league’s best attack against its worst defense. Roma’s back line is no fortress, ten conceded in five, so both teams to score stays live and Lauriente or Berardi should convert one of their openings. Sassuolo’s four straight defeats, each by two goals or more, make the -1.5 handicap a natural companion to the home win. Malen, Soule and Mora against a defense leaking 2.6 per game settles the direction. Roma to win, over 2.5 goals, and another loud night at the Olimpico.
