Liam Duckstein
Roma hosts Fiorentina at Stadio Olimpico on May 4, 2026 in a match where both sides seek vital points for their respective Serie A ambitions. Roma’s position in the top six means every match is crucial for European qualification, while Fiorentina hovers above the relegation battle, desperate for a positive result. This clash stands out because both coaches, Gian Piero Gasperini and Paolo Vanoli, have shown tactical adaptability recently. Another subplot is Donyell Malen’s current goal-scoring streak for Roma, which meets the creativity of Fiorentina’s Jack Harrison, both of whom will play major roles in their teams’ attacking plans.
Roma’s Donyell Malen is in superb form, having scored 4 goals in his last 4 matches, while Jack Harrison has contributed a goal and assist for Fiorentina across their recent fixtures. Both will be pivotal, but goalkeepers like Mile Svilar and David De Gea might have the final say.
Hot stat: Fiorentina have collected 16 yellow cards in their last 5 games, a sign of their combative style—this may shape the flow of play and disciplinary risks.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Olimpico, Rome |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Roma vs Fiorentina prediction
We predict Roma will take the three points. Roma’s home record, attacking output, and league position all point toward a strong showing. They have scored 8 goals in their last 5 games and rarely drop points at the Olimpico. Donyell Malen’s finishing has been decisive, and Roma’s midfield, led by Bryan Cristante and Neil El Aynaoui, controls possession with efficiency.
Fiorentina’s recent form is less convincing—they’ve drawn or lost three of their last five Serie A games and managed only 4 goals in that span. Their aggressive play brings frequent fouls and bookings, which can disrupt rhythm and create dangerous set-piece opportunities for Roma. Roma’s own fouls and yellow cards are relatively low compared to Fiorentina, suggesting a more controlled approach. Both teams average solid pass accuracy, but Fiorentina’s tendency for physical contests could see them undermined by suspensions or in-game cautions.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Roma to win & Over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Roma’s recent matches showcase steady progress. Their last fixture, a 2-0 victory over Bologna, underlined their attacking clarity and defensive improvement. Malen and Hermoso have been clinical, while the team limited Bologna’s chances and dominated possession. Previous games included a 1-1 draw with Atalanta and a convincing 3-0 win over Pisa, highlighting a squad that can both grind out results and overpower weaker opposition.
Fiorentina, on the other hand, played to a goalless draw against Sassuolo in their latest outing. The Viola controlled large spells but struggled for a cutting edge in attack. Defensive discipline was visible, yet the lack of goals remains a concern. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Lecce, beat Crystal Palace 2-1 in European play, and edged Lazio 1-0, but have also suffered a heavy 0-3 defeat to Crystal Palace. This inconsistency has left them mid-table, with form questions remaining.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Roma | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Free kicks | 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks | 19 | 21 |
| Total fouls | 41 | 61 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 83.6 | 83.8 |
| Interceptions | 42 | 27 |
| Offsides | 5 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Roma vs Fiorentina stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Roma the favourite
- Moneyline Roma 1.66 | Fiorentina 5.20
- Draw 4.10
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.85
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.84 | No 2.02
Bookmakers clearly back Roma as favourites, with odds reflecting their higher win rate, stronger league position, and attacking form. Fiorentina’s longer odds mirror their inconsistent performances and low scoring run. The draw sits at a mid-range value, reasonable given Fiorentina’s penchant for stalemates, but Roma’s superior home numbers shift the probability further in their favor. Over 2.5 goals offers value, supported by Roma’s offensive streak and Fiorentina’s defensive lapses. Both teams to score is rated likely, considering Fiorentina’s sporadic attacking flashes and Roma’s recent defensive concessions.
Possible Starting Lineups
Roma possible starting eleven
- GK: Mile Svilar
- DF: Zeki Çelik, Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Mario Hermoso, Daniele Ghilardi
- MF: Bryan Cristante, Neil El Aynaoui, Niccolò Pisilli, Lorenzo Pellegrini
- FW: Donyell Malen
This lineup is built on recent appearances and form. Svilar stays in goal. The defensive unit of Çelik, Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso, and Ghilardi provides a blend of composure and aerial strength, ideal for Gasperini’s preferred 3-4-2-1. Cristante and El Aynaoui anchor the midfield, with Pisilli and Pellegrini offering creativity and energy ahead. Donyell Malen, the current top scorer, is the focal point up front and a player to watch for decisive moments.
Fiorentina possible starting eleven
- GK: David De Gea
- DF: Luca Ranieri, Marin Pongracic, Domilson Dodo, Pietro Comuzzo
- MF: Rolando Mandragora, Cher Ndour, Nicolo Fagioli, Jacopo Fazzini
- FW: Jack Harrison, Albert Gudmundsson
Fiorentina’s likely formation remains the 3-4-2-1. De Gea brings experience to the back line. Ranieri, Pongracic, Dodo, and Comuzzo form a disciplined defensive group. The midfield will rely on Mandragora’s passing and Ndour’s box-to-box movement. Harrison and Gudmundsson are tasked with sparking attacks, both offering a goal threat. Harrison, in particular, is set for a major influence on the flanks.
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Fiorentina. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Roma to outscore Fiorentina, leaning on recent momentum, home advantage, and Donyell Malen’s clinical finishing. Fiorentina’s discipline problems and lack of attacking consistency put them at a disadvantage, despite flashes of quality from Harrison and Gudmundsson. Expect a fast-paced match, with Roma dictating tempo and exploiting Fiorentina’s aggressive tendencies. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score stand out as secondary picks for punters seeking added value.
