Roma vs Cremonese Prediction: 22.02.2026 Serie A

On 22 February 2026, Stadio Olimpico prepares to host a clash that pits Roma’s European pedigree against Cremonese’s determined resolve, marking a mid-season encounter in Serie A that could see significant ramifications for both ends of the table. While Roma hold a strong fourth position and have proven resilient against higher-rated opponents, Cremonese arrive having not yet tasted victory in 2026—a desperate run that belies their capacity for defensive scrapping and occasional surprises.

All eyes will gravitate naturally to Roma’s creative fulcrum Lorenzo Pellegrini, whose consistency and midfield command could prove vital, while up front, Donyell Malen offers explosive pace and finishing that Cremonese will struggle to contain. On the visitors’ side, Jamie Vardy brings not only experience but also an ability to pounce on defensive lapses—a trait Roma’s backline can’t afford to neglect for even a moment.

The “hot stat” ahead of this matchup? Roma have fired off a whopping 60 shots in their last five outings—an attacking intent that contrasts starkly with Cremonese’s solitary goal and suggests this battle may be fought on one front more than the other.

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Roma vs Cremonese prediction

Roma enter as overwhelming favourites, courtesy of their dominant home record and clear superiority in nearly every metric—be it shots, possession, or goals scored. Most bookmakers give them about a 70% chance of victory, and for good reason: while their last outing ended 2-2 against a strong Napoli, the Giallorossi have shown impressive resilience, scoring six in their last five and maintaining solid discipline in midfield.

Cremonese, meanwhile, continue to labour at both ends—just one goal in five matches tells its own story, and spells out why their win probability sits at a mere 10%. Roma’s press in their 3-4-2-1 is likely to suffocate Cremonese’s 3-5-2 build-up, while the visitors’ relatively high yellow card count and difficulty asserting control (only 54% pass accuracy in that stretch) speak to a team under siege and forced into reactive, physical football.

Given these trends, the best value pick is Roma on the Asian Handicap (-1.5). Roma’s average of 12 shots per match, their diverse attacking threats, and a defensively rigid shape give them a strong chance of not only winning, but doing so by two or more goals.

Hard tackling has contributed to Cremonese’s yellow card tally, but they lack the ball progression or efficient pressing to consistently turn such aggression into meaningful counter-attacks. Roma’s tactical approach—driven by Gasperini’s preference for controlled, possession-heavy football—should keep the visitors penned back, yielding high corner counts and, in realistic terms, few real chances for Cremonese. Set pieces may prove their best hope, but even those have produced little of late.

Team Analysis

Roma recent results and current form
Roma’s last five matches reflect a team capable of dictating play and adapting under pressure: a thrilling 2-2 away at Napoli, a clinical 2-0 win at home over Cagliari, and gritty draws against Milan and Panathinaikos that showcased both their offensive variation and defensive organisation. Despite a slip-up with a surprise home defeat to Udinese, the Giallorossi’s approach remains proactive—evident in both their ball control (81% pass accuracy) and persistent threat in the final third.

Cremonese recent results and current form
Cremonese’s recent stretch paints a tougher picture: no wins from their last five, goalless against Genoa and Verona, with defeats to Inter, Atalanta, and Sassuolo revealing underlying issues in breaking down disciplined backlines. Despite moments of defensive grit—holding Genoa to a 0-0—Davide Nicola’s men have simply not found a way to turn defensive structure into genuine attacking threat, with their solitary goal from five outings symptomatic of their broader struggles.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Roma vs Cremonese stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Roma the favourite

• Moneyline Roma 1.36 | Cremonese 9.30
• Draw 5.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.87 | Under 2.5 1.95
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.08 | No 1.72

These odds make it clear that Roma are bookmakers’ darlings—and rightly so. With their attacking fluency, home support, and far superior tactical structure, it’s no surprise. Cremonese’s upset potential is reflected in the long odds on an away win. The modest Over/Under and BTTS lines underline expectations that Roma will control proceedings, leaving Cremonese reliant on rare counter-attacking chances.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Roma possible starting eleven

Roma’s 3-4-2-1 formation under Gasperini thrives on control in midfield, with Cristante and Pellegrini central to recycling possession and launching forward runs. Malen spearheads the attack, ably supported by Soule’s movement and technical craft. Mancini is a leader at the back, and the wingbacks provide width and support both in defence and during overlapping surges. Expect Roma to set a high tempo from the off, with Malen and Pellegrini the likeliest to tip the balance.

Cremonese possible starting eleven

Cremonese’s 3-5-2 is designed to congest the midfield and protect their box. Audero’s shot-stopping will need to be at its sharpest, while Baschirotto and Bianchetti must anchor a backline often left isolated against quicker forwards. Vardy remains the potential X-factor; if Cremonese can spring him behind Roma’s lines, his pace could offer a glimmer of hope. Still, their main challenge will be resisting Roma’s relentless waves of attack.

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My take on the Match

Our main pick: Roma to win with the -1.5 handicap. The Giallorossi’s combination of attacking intent, creative midfield play, and home dominance should simply prove too much for a Cremonese side craving stability but struggling for goals and confidence. Even football, with its penchant for surprises, seems almost obliged here to go with the statistical grain: Roma are primed to keep the pressure on Serie A’s leading trio, and this fixture offers a perfect platform to re-assert their Champions League credentials.

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