Roma vs Atalanta Prediction: 05.09.2026 Serie A

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Two of Serie A’s most in-form sides open the 2026/27 season with a third-round meeting that already carries table-topping weight. Roma sit first on goal difference after a stunning 8-0 aggregate across their opening two games, while Atalanta trail only marginally in fifth with six points of their own. What makes this fixture particularly interesting is the coaching swap: Gian Piero Gasperini, the man who built Atalanta into a European force, now leads Roma, and Maurizio Sarri takes the opposite dugout. The tactical familiarity on both sides could either cancel each other out or produce a very open game.

Paulo Dybala is the standout name in Roma’s attack, registering five assists and one goal across the last five matches, bringing a creativity level that few Serie A midfielders can match. On the other side, Nikola Krstović has been Atalanta’s most direct threat, leading their forward line with eight shots and one goal in four appearances, and his physical presence will test Roma’s back three from the first whistle.

Roma’s hot stat is difficult to ignore: they have scored 14 goals in their last five matches, an average of 2.8 per game, with Donyell Malen alone netting five of them.

Roma vs Atalanta Prediction

Roma are the clear value pick here. Playing at home, scoring freely, and carrying the momentum of back-to-back 4-0 wins in Serie A, they have every reason to press for another dominant result. Atalanta have been solid without being spectacular, winning their last two league games 1-0 against teams ranked well below Roma’s level. The gulf in attacking output is significant, and Sarri’s side has managed just four goals across five matches compared to Roma’s 14.

Gasperini knows Atalanta’s defensive shape better than anyone, and that knowledge should help Roma exploit the spaces that Sarri’s system leaves on the flanks. Roma’s 3-4-2-1 allows the wing-backs to push high, which directly targets the areas where Atalanta have been most exposed in recent outings. We predict Roma to win this match.

Roma average 12.4 shots per game across their last five matches against Atalanta’s 8.6. Roma also commit more fouls (55 vs 42) and earn more free kicks (62 vs 49), which points to a more aggressive, high-intensity style. With seven yellow cards to Atalanta’s two, Roma play on the edge, but that same intensity drives their attacking output. Atalanta’s low card count reflects a more passive, structured approach that may struggle to contain Roma’s wide runners. The combination of Roma’s home advantage and Atalanta’s limited firepower makes the under 3.5 total goals a reasonable alternative, though Roma’s attacking form pulls us toward the over 2.5 line.

Team Analysis

Roma have been in superb form across all competitions. Their last five matches produced 14 goals, including a 4-0 demolition of Lecce and a 4-0 win over Fiorentina in their opening Serie A fixtures. The only blemish was a 0-3 home loss to Brighton in what appears to have been a pre-season or cup context, and even that sits within a run that also included a 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund. The depth of Roma’s squad is evident: multiple players across the forward and midfield lines contribute goals, and their press is relentless.

Atalanta’s recent record is tighter and more controlled. They won 1-0 against Bologna in their most recent outing, and their last five results include a 2-1 win over Sassuolo, a 1-0 victory against Athletic Bilbao, and two encounters with Hapoel Tel Aviv, one won 1-0 and one drawn 0-0. The pattern is clear: Sarri’s Atalanta grind out results rather than blow teams away. They average under one goal per game in those five matches, which makes them a hard team to back in a fixture against Roma’s attack.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

The recent head-to-head record heavily favours Atalanta, who have won three of the last four meetings and kept Roma to just two goals across those games. Roma have not beaten Atalanta in their last four attempts, which adds a layer of doubt to the home side’s odds.

🚨Check out our dedicated Roma vs Atalanta stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Roma the favourite

• Moneyline Roma 1.91 | Atalanta 4.08
• Draw 3.54
• Over/Under Over 2.5 – check your bookmaker | Under 2.5 – check your bookmaker
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes – check your bookmaker | No – check your bookmaker

The bookmakers price Roma as clear favourites at around 1.91 with Pinnacle, which aligns with the 51% win probability consensus. Atalanta at 4.08 looks generous given their recent wins, but their head-to-head dominance and low-scoring style keep us from backing them outright. The draw at 3.54 reflects a real possibility given Atalanta’s ability to stifle attacks, but Roma’s home record this season makes it hard to ignore the value on a Roma win. To be honest, the Atalanta price at several bookmakers above 4.00 may tempt those who follow the h2h trend, but we lean toward Roma’s current momentum.

Possible Starting Lineups

Roma Possible Starting Eleven

Gasperini looks set to continue with the 3-4-2-1 that has served him so well. Mile Svilar is the undisputed first choice between the posts after 21 saves across five matches. The back three of Mancini, Hermoso, and Ndicka provides experience and ball-playing ability, with Hermoso also contributing one goal and one assist. In the engine room, Cristante and Koné give Roma physicality and range, while Dybala and Soule operate as the creative double pivot behind Malen, who has been Roma’s deadliest finisher with five goals in five games.

Atalanta Possible Starting Eleven

Sarri mirrors the 3-4-2-1 shape, with Carnesecchi as first choice after 17 saves across four appearances. The defensive block of Scalvini, Kossounou, and Kolašinac has been disciplined and well-organised, conceding just once in their last four Serie A games. Éderson and Gaetano sit as the midfield pivot, with Bellanova and Zappacosta providing width. Samardzic and Zalewski offer creativity behind Scamacca, who remains Atalanta’s primary target. Krstović is a genuine threat off the bench if Sarri needs a more direct option late in the game.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Roma’s attacking numbers this season are in a different class to anything Atalanta have produced. Fourteen goals in five games, a 62-shot volume across those matches, and a 17-corner average per game all point to a team that dominates possession phases and creates chances at will. Atalanta are disciplined and hard to break down, but they have scored just four goals in the same period and will face a coach who knows their system inside out.

The head-to-head trend is the one factor that gives us pause. Atalanta have beaten Roma in three of the last four meetings, including a 2-0 win at the Olimpico last season. Sarri’s defensive structure has clearly troubled Roma in recent years. Still, the current form gap is too wide to ignore, and Gasperini’s familiarity with Atalanta’s tendencies should help Roma find the right answers. We predict a Roma win with both teams scoring, making the Roma win and BTTS combination the best value on the board.

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