Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo Prediction: 29.05.2025 Croatian Cup Final Preview

As the curtains fall on the Croatian Cup 2024/25, all eyes will descend upon Stadion HNK Rijeka for a final steeped in history and tactical intrigue. Rijeka and Slaven Belupo have matched wits regularly in Croatian football, but this is no ordinary clash; both sides are chasing silverware, and for Rijeka, the chance to stamp their authority at home could not be more inviting. What adds spice to this fixture is their recent draws and intertwined fortunes in league and cup, with their previous cup encounter ending in a stalemate.

The midfield contest ought to be fierce, with Rijeka’s Niko Janković a dynamic contributor with three goals in his last four games set to test Slaven Belupo’s industry. Meanwhile, Slaven’s Ilija Nestorovski, hungry for goals and tireless in attack, looks primed to trouble the Rijeka backline. Mark my words, the interplay between these creative sparks could very well tip the balance.

One “hot stat” leaps off the page: Rijeka has scored in every one of their last five matches, with a tally of 10 goals during that stretch the highest output among Croatian Cup finalists this season.

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Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo prediction

For punters with a taste for value, the safest pick appears to be backing Rijeka to win. The home side’s recent scoring run, combined with their solid home record and cup pedigree, renders them deserved favourites. Slaven Belupo, despite flashes of attacking promise, have lacked consistency against the league’s stronger outfits only one win in their last six matches underscores this vulnerability.

Rijeka’s aggressive 4-2-3-1 has yielded high pressing, energetic transitions, and no lack of shots (69 in their last five games). However, the trade-off has been a rash of yellow cards (18) and a tendency to concede set pieces. Slaven Belupo, conversely, have matched Rijeka in build-up proficiency boasting the higher number of passes and better pass accuracy (2367 passes at 83% in recent games), but defending set pieces has been their Achilles’ heel.

Expect a lively duel where Rijeka’s relentless pressing meets Slaven’s more methodical patient build-up. Crucially, Rijeka’s discipline (72 fouls in five matches) may open up free kick opportunities for the visitors, although Slaven have yet to make these count in recent games. Ultimately, Rijeka’s firepower, home advantage, and superior form tilt the prediction in their favour though there’s every chance we’ll be treated to a tightly contested battle.

Team Analysis

Rijeka: The hosts come in buoyed by recent cup and league results, dispatching Slaven Belupo 2-0 in their most recent encounter with a clinical, high-intensity performance. Their previous five outings evidence a team in form, racking up 10 goals and only dropping points once. Notably, their pressing suffocated Slaven Belupo last time out, with Janković and Fruk particularly influential in pinning back opposition fullbacks.

Slaven Belupo: Slaven’s recent cup and league form has been less convincing, with only one win in their last six matches. Their last game against Rijeka was a 0-2 loss, highlighting defensive frailties and a lack of cutting edge up front. Still, with Nestorovski and Dolček up front, Slaven can never be underestimated their dramatic 4-0 rout of Gorica in the run-in is a reminder that they’re capable of finding goals when it clicks.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Rijeka the favourite

• Moneyline Rijeka 1.57 | Slaven Belupo 5.70
• Draw 3.95
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.06 | Under 2.5 1.78
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.07 | No 1.80

Bookmakers strongly favour Rijeka, who carry a 60 percent predicted win probability thanks to their superior form at home, quality in attack, and historic dominance over Slaven. The long odds for Slaven reflect both their recent struggles and defensive issues, though their tendency to produce the occasional upset makes the draw an option for the bold. For those seeking action, Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score both appeal, underpinned by both teams’ attacking orientation and open cup final football.

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Possible Starting Lineups

This lineup puts faith in Rijeka’s sturdy centre-backs (Radeljić and Majstorović) with Devetak and Goda offering width in a likely 4-2-3-1. The deeper pairing of Selahi and Petrović screens the back four, while Fruk and the effervescent Janković (three goals in four) will look to pull strings. Up front, Djouahra’s pace and Čop’s predatory instincts headline an attack designed to exploit vulnerable channels. Expect Fruk to roam between the lines with license to create he’s been the silent engine in this team.

Slaven Belupo are also likely to deploy their familiar 4-2-3-1, banking on consistency at the back with Bosec and Boras as aggressive fullbacks. The midfield is anchored by Agbekpornu and Cubelic, with Liber adding a dash of forward thrust. But it’s Nestorovski leading the line who commands attention his movement makes him the man to watch, well supported by Dolček and Sakota raiding from the flanks. If Slaven are to spring a surprise, their front trio must combine more effectively than in previous meetings.

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The Verdict

From the evidence at hand, Rijeka’s blend of home advantage, attacking swagger, and cup experience should see them edge a stubborn Slaven Belupo. As we’ve seen throughout this season, Rijeka thrive on big occasions, and with Janković conducting affairs and a clinical front line, we expect a lively, high-scoring affair with Rijeka emerging victorious possibly by a two-goal margin. That said, cup finals are notorious for dramatic twists, and with Slaven’s talented attackers, we can’t rule out nervy moments for the home side. Still, for pure value, the hosts tick all the right boxes for a long-awaited cup triumph.

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