Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo Prediction: 25.05.2025 1. HNL Preview

As the 1. HNL regular season draws to an exciting close, Rijeka faces Slaven Belupo at Stadion HNK Rijeka in a match that’s more than just a battle for three points. Rijeka, neck and neck with Dinamo Zagreb at the top of the table, know that a home victory could be pivotal for their title ambitions. Meanwhile, Slaven Belupo, with a solid if unspectacular season, arrive aiming to claim a result against one of Croatia’s dominant forces. Interestingly, the last encounter at this ground ended in a 1-1 draw, showing that Belupo are far from pushovers on their travels.

Keep an eye on Rijeka’s Duje Čop, whose recent form and ability to break down tightly set defences could be vital here. For Slaven Belupo, Ilija Nestorovski’s sharp movement and eye for goal offer a genuine threat, especially on the counter. In a match where discipline and precision will be tested, set-piece specialists could make the difference.

Hot Stat: In their last five matches, Slaven Belupo have earned 27 corner kicks—an indication of their proactive attacking play and tendency to pressure opposing defences late in matches.

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Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo prediction

The bookmakers mark Rijeka as clear favourites and rightfully so: their 46% season win rate, home advantage, and excellent defensive record (only 21 goals conceded in 35 matches) are imposing. The stats reveal a disciplined side, with an organized backline and a midfield that controls possession—averaging over 70% pass accuracy in their latest games. Slaven Belupo, however, have shown resilience and a knack for carving out results against higher-ranked teams, chiefly by capitalizing on set-pieces and counters, as demonstrated by their league-high corner tally over the last five fixtures.

Given the attacking strength of Rijeka at home and Belupo’s aggressive wide play, the most valuable pick here is Rijeka with an Asian Handicap (-1). This bet is supported by Rijeka’s underlying offensive numbers and their need to keep pace at the top, while Slaven’s recent defensive lapses (conceding five to Dinamo Zagreb not long ago) highlight their vulnerability against top-tier opposition.

Stylistically, Rijeka play in a 4-2-3-1 setup, focusing on high ball retention, quick transitions, and intense pressing—though their 15 yellow cards in the last five games suggest an aggressive, sometimes overly committed approach. Slaven Belupo, mirroring the same formation, are more open, with fewer yellows (6 in five matches), but their higher interception numbers (39 vs 28 for Rijeka) speak to a willingness to soak up pressure and win the ball in key areas.

Team Analysis

Rijeka Recent Games: Despite some mixed form in their last seven matches (2 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw), Rijeka have recently shown steel in defence and efficiency in attack. Their tight 1-2 loss to Hajduk Split showed their ability to compete at high levels, even in adversity—they conceded only two goals against a top side and matched them for much of the match. Prior to that, a hard-fought 1-0 win over Sibenik highlighted Rijeka’s efficiency and ability to eke out results when needed.

Slaven Belupo Recent Games: Slaven Belupo come into this game on the back of an emphatic 4-0 win over Gorica, a display of attacking intent and execution. However, inconsistency has plagued their campaign, as evidenced by a heavy 0-5 defeat to Dinamo Zagreb and a disappointing 1-4 home loss to Osijek in recent weeks. Nonetheless, their ability to force a 1-1 draw in the last meeting with Rijeka will give them belief, especially if they manage to disrupt Rijeka’s rhythm from set-plays.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Rijeka the favourite

• Moneyline Rijeka 1.29 | Slaven Belupo 9.20
• Draw 4.90
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.75 | Under 2.5 1.90
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.20 | No 1.66

Rijeka’s price clearly reflects their home form and superior defensive rhythm. The spread between Rijeka and Slaven Belupo in the odds signals how much faith bookmakers have in Rijeka’s ability to control this fixture. Under 2.5 goals and ‘both teams to score – No’ offer value, considering Rijeka’s efficient, methodical style and Belupo’s tendency to struggle in front of goal against the elite. Bettors looking for an upset might be attracted by Belupo’s huge price, but recent results indicate a well-managed, disciplined Rijeka should prevail.

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Possible Starting Lineups

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The Verdict

My main prediction is a Rijeka win, most likely by a narrow margin such as 1-0 or 2-0. The data points firmly to Rijeka’s home dominance and ability to manage high-pressure matches. Expect an assertive start from Rijeka, with solid ball retention and well-organized pressing, especially through their midfield. Slaven Belupo’s wide play and set-piece threat could keep Rijeka honest, but given Rijeka’s defensive record and Belupo’s inconsistencies away from home, anything other than a home win would be a surprise. If you’re seeking value, the Asian Handicap -1 for Rijeka and an under on total goals stand out as the top choices in this matchup.

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