Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo Prediction: 24.01.2026 1. HNL 2025/26 Preview

The 1. HNL encounter between Rijeka and Slaven Belupo on January 24, 2026, promises a crucial clash in the context of the league’s mid-table race. While both sides are separated by just a single point in the standings, Rijeka’s historical home advantage and recent uptick in form add extra spice to this fixture. A tactical battle is on the cards, with both coaches – Víctor Sánchez for Rijeka and Mario Gregurina for Slaven Belupo – likely to prioritize defensive stability while searching for creative breakthroughs.

Key players to watch include Rijeka’s versatile midfielder Tiago Dantas, who has recently contributed both in goals and buildup play, and Slaven Belupo’s creative force in the center of the park, who will look to orchestrate quick transitions and capitalize on any defensive lapses. Both teams will need their defensive lines well-drilled to stifle these influencers.

A “hot stat” worth noting: In Rijeka’s last five home matches, they have conceded just one goal, illustrating outstanding defensive discipline at Stadion HNK Rijeka.

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Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo prediction

Rijeka is the bookmakers’ clear favorite, priced as low as 1.53 for the outright win, a reflection of both their home record and their more consistent performances this term. The best value match prediction here is Rijeka to win, possibly with a -1 Asian Handicap for increased odds. The reasoning is threefold: Rijeka boasts a strong defensive line, rarely conceding at home; recent matches show a growing attacking cohesion, particularly from midfield; and Slaven Belupo’s away form, despite resilience, has often lacked the firepower to break down well-organized sides.

When we look at team styles, Rijeka is disciplined (averaging just two yellow cards per match), highly organized in ball circulation (over 400 passes per game with strong accuracy), and maintains a measured tempo. This control limits sloppy fouls (under 15 per game) and gives them chances to win the midfield battle. Slaven Belupo, on the other hand, adopts a 4-2-3-1 shape centered around defensive solidity and counter-attacks but struggles in transition against structured pressing units.

Team Analysis

Rijeka’s recent games: Rijeka has put together a solid run, winning 2-1 against Istra 1961 in their previous match. The win showed effectiveness in converting limited opportunities (10 total shots), resilience at the back, and good ball retention – their pass accuracy was well above 85 percent. Earlier, a 0-2 loss to Koper was a reality check, primarily due to defensive lapses, but they shook that off with a 1-0 win over Gorica, focusing on defensive tightness and compactness in midfield. Consistency in formation (3-4-1-2) gives Víctor Sánchez’s side a clear identity.

Slaven Belupo’s recent games: Slaven Belupo comes in after a 2-4 home defeat to Lokomotiva Zagreb, a match that exposed their vulnerability to high-pressing sides and quick transitions. Yet, earlier results, including a 2-2 draw with Vukovar 1991 and a convincing 4-1 win against KF Arsimi, indicate a squad unafraid to commit numbers forward but sometimes lacking defensive discipline (notably in multi-goal matches). Their 4-2-3-1 formation relies heavily on midfield partnerships to disrupt opposition rhythm.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Rijeka the favourite

• Moneyline Rijeka 1.53–1.57 | Slaven Belupo 5.20–6.00
• Draw 3.75–4.06
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.12 | Under 2.5 1.69
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.01 | No 1.77

The odds heavily favor Rijeka, and with good reason: a much stronger home record, greater squad depth, and a tendency to control midfield in these fixtures. The value on the draw, priced as high as 4.06, does represent the possibility of a low-scoring, tightly-contested match if Rijeka cannot break through early. Slaven Belupo offers potential as a high-odds outsider, but their inconsistency in big away matches tempers enthusiasm for an upset.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

Possible Starting Lineups

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My take on the Match

Given recent form, tactical discipline, and a reliable defensive core, Rijeka should edge this contest at home. Slaven Belupo’s defensive shape may frustrate, but Rijeka’s attacking quality and depth – especially in midfield – look set to tip the balance. My main pick: Rijeka to win with a clean sheet, and for punters seeking higher returns, the -1 Asian Handicap holds value. This is a must-watch match for those who appreciate tactical battles and measured football with moments of individual brilliance.

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