Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo Prediction: 03.08.2025 1. HNL

As the Croatian top division’s new campaign takes shape, the fixture at Stadion HNK Rijeka between Rijeka and Slaven Belupo stands out as a litmus test for both sides. Rijeka, a club with perennial ambitions, faces a Slaven Belupo outfit enjoying a strong vein of form and eager to prove last season’s progress was no mere flash in the pan. Notably, both sides lean into attack-minded 4-3-3 systems, suggesting a midfield battle brimming with tactical intrigue and plenty for the neutral to savour.
An eye should be kept on Rijeka’s creative midfielder Amer Gojak – who broke the deadlock with a vital goal recently – and Slaven Belupo’s marksman from their 6-2 demolition job over Mladost DG, whose confidence could ripple into this tie. Goalkeepers might not take the headlines on past evidence, but outfield duels and sharp finishers promise excitement here.
Equally instructive is Rijeka’s recent unbeaten run against Slaven, yet the hot stat is this: Slaven Belupo boasts a tremendous 71% win rate from their last seven matches, signalling they cannot be regarded as mere underdogs.

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Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo prediction

Bookmakers strongly favour Rijeka at home, and it’s not a surprise given both recent history and a squad stacked with local quality. Still, Slaven Belupo are carrying momentum – five wins from their last seven, buoyed by a hefty goal haul and growing self-belief. The best value pick here is Rijeka to Win & Over 2.5 Goals. Why? Rijeka has a pedigree for controlling matches in their own backyard, have netted in all but one of their last five, and Slaven, for all their wins, have conceded in four of their last five outings. This points towards an open contest where both sides have opportunities, likely producing goals at either end.
Tactically, both teams operate with a three-man midfield, favouring possession play rather than launching into reckless challenges – Rijeka have averaged just one yellow card per game recently, Slaven even fewer. Strikingly, Rijeka’s 82% pass accuracy sets them up to dictate tempo. However, discipline will be crucial: Rijeka’s defenders, such as Devetak and Orec, have picked up a couple of yellows each across recent matches, and reckless tackles could give Slaven set-piece opportunities. Expect a game with plenty of ball movement and attacking transitions, possibly resulting in more corners and chances than outright bruising midfield duels.

Team Analysis

Rijeka come off the back of a 1-1 away draw at Ludogorets, part of a mixed bag in pre-season and continental qualifiers. Their recent run (draw-draw-loss-win-loss-win) exposes a side hunting for rhythm, but notable is their resilience: even when edged out, they’re hardly blown away. The draw against Ludogorets saw Rijeka execute their familiar 4-3-3 shape, with Gojak probing and Devetak offering bite down the flank, but missed chances—just one goal from sixteen shots—highlight a conversion worry that Coach Radomir Djalovic must address.

Slaven Belupo have been tearing through friendlies and cup ties, peppering goals with ruthless efficiency. Their 4-2 thrashing of Rudes and a spectacular 6-2 against Mladost DG stand out; however, they’re also susceptible at the back, evident from heavy losses like 0-4 to Osijek. Coach Mario Gregurina’s side is direct, pressing high and inviting fast breaks. Their best form has come when forward momentum is sustained—expect them to come out swinging, especially if Rijeka’s defence chances a high line.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Rijeka vs Slaven Belupo stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Rijeka the favourite

• Moneyline Rijeka 1.51 | Slaven Belupo 6.26
• Draw 4.01
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.80

Bookies’ odds lean heavily toward Rijeka taking all three points, and with good reason: their home advantage, superior squad cohesion, and historical dominance in head-to-heads. The Over 2.5 goals odds are telling—both sides are not shy in front of goal lately, but Slaven’s increased attacking firepower also makes the BTTS line tempting. There’s genuine upset potential if Rijeka turn profligate, but most indicators back them staying in control while conceding at least once.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Rijeka possible starting eleven

Rijeka will likely stick to their recent 4-3-3 template, maximising width and capitalising on technical midfielders like Gojak, whose late runs break defensive lines. Radeljić and Majstorović anchor a back four disciplined but prone to occasional lapses. Gojak is the one to watch for breaking stalemates, while Menalo offers pace and unpredictability out wide. With Zlomislić between the sticks, expect solid distribution to launch quick transitions.

With limited confirmed data on Slaven Belupo’s squad, we expect manager Mario Gregurina to continue with a forward-thinking 4-3-3 that’s yielded impressive recent returns. Their front three are in good form, feeding off sharp midfield service, and the defence, while leaky at times, can suffocate weaker attacks. The left winger who netted a brace versus Mladost DG deserves spotlight, routinely stretching defences and creating overloads.

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My take on the Match

Weighed up, Rijeka’s strength at home and track record of dispatching Slaven Belupo—coupled with their pressing needs to start the season assertively—make them fair favourites. Yet this Slaven side has evolved: adventurous, confident, and less fearful of reputations. The smart money is on Rijeka to win, with goals in tow, but don’t be shocked if the visitors rattle the hosts and find the net. It all points to a contest that could help define both teams’ intent for the campaign ahead and further intensify this intriguing Croatian rivalry.

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