Rijeka vs Osijek Prediction: 23.04.2025 1. HNL 2024/25 Preview

As we approach the tail end of the regular season in the Croatian 1. HNL, Rijeka find themselves leading the chase not only for the top spot, but for a statement win that could cement their campaign as a resounding success. Facing Osijek — currently languishing in 9th place — this encounter at Stadion HNK Rijeka shapes up as a defining moment for both clubs. Rijeka must maintain momentum with Hajduk Split breathing down their necks, while Osijek desperately search for points to stave off relegation concerns. The question for all observers: can Rijeka’s consistency continue against an Osijek team in the throes of a five-game losing streak?

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Rijeka vs Osijek prediction

Prediction: Rijeka to win convincingly.

Simply put, momentum is everything at this stage of the season. Rijeka’s blend of tactical discipline and attacking sharpness, under Radomir Djalovic, has proven too much for most league rivals, especially at home. Their 60% win rate over the last five matches — coupled with three clean sheets — underscores a team in control of both rhythm and territory. Meanwhile, Osijek under Simon Rozman have been out of sorts, losing their last five games, with defensive lapses and a worrying lack of goal threat.

The discipline edge also goes to Rijeka, who have committed fewer fouls (43 to Osijek’s 50) in their last five matches and shown more focus in ball progression and interceptions. Both teams favour a 4-2-3-1 setup, but Rijeka’s midfield — anchored by the likes of Toni Fruk — is considerably more effective in retaining possession (1008 passes, 74% accuracy, vs Osijek’s slightly higher 1265 passes but only 79% accuracy), and carrying the ball forward decisively.

The rationale for the Hot Tip is seen in Osijek’s lack of attacking edge (only 2 goals in their last 5) and Rijeka’s defensive prudence — they’re unlikely to throw caution to the wind. With both sides disciplined but Osijek hardly finding the net of late, a low-scoring home win seems probable. Expect plenty of set pieces and corners as Rijeka press forward, but don’t bank on Osijek troubling the scoreboard.

Team Analysis

Rijeka’s form and last games:

Rijeka’s recent home form signals a team that knows how to manage tight games. Their last five matches show three wins — including marginal 1-0 victories over Lokomotiva Zagreb and Varazdin — and two losses that came against lower-rated teams, perhaps signaling occasional lapses in concentration. Consistency in formation (4-2-3-1) and the reliability of contributors like Toni Fruk (2 goals, 1 assist) and solid defending from Mladen Devetak have kept Rijeka competitive.

Osijek’s form and last games:

Osijek, in stark contrast, are enduring a nightmare. Five straight losses, coupled with alarming defensive leaks (conceding 13 goals in that span), have left morale low and the margin for error non-existent. They’ve failed to score in three of those five and looked especially vulnerable against attacking sides like Dinamo Zagreb (0-2) and Sibenik (1-4). Their midfield, often overrun and unable to shield the back line, has contributed to a steep decline in results.

Most recent H2Hs: Rijeka dominates

🚨Read our full Rijeka vs Osijek stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Rijeka the favourite

These odds paint a clear picture: bookmakers give Rijeka over 60% implied win probability — well deserved given their recent form and Osijek’s struggles. Osijek are priced as long outsiders, a reflection of their five-game losing streak and lack of offensive spark. The Under 2.5 line is favoured, aligning with both teams’ recent output (low scoring games and tight defense on Rijeka’s part). The Both Teams To Score (BTTS) market tips toward ‘No’, reflecting Osijek’s scoring woes.

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Key Players to Watch

Rijeka: Toni Fruk (MF) – 4 games, 2 goals, 1 assist (last 5). The creative spark for Rijeka, Fruk’s sharp movement, and ability to break lines with late runs make him the main threat — especially against an Osijek side that struggles to track runners from midfield.
Osijek: Petar Pusic (MF) – 4 appearances, 1 assist, and a pass accuracy over 80%. If Osijek are to fashion anything meaningful, much will depend on Pusic’s composure and vision under pressure.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Rijeka’s squad selection is both pragmatic and purposeful. Zlomislić anchors the back line while Majstorović and Devetak offer both steady defending and distribution. The midfield diamond, led by Fruk, orchestrates most attacking sequences. Expect a fluid 4-2-3-1 with Menalo and Djouahra stretching the lines and Duje Čop’s poaching instincts up front. If Fruk manages to find pockets of space, Osijek’s defense will face a torrid night.

For Osijek, Malenica’s presence in goal is indispensable given recent defensive frailty, while Jurišić, Jelenic, and Guedes must be at their sharpest to mitigate Rijeka’s wide threat. Pusic and Dantas have the task of retaining possession and launching counters. Up front, Hernani and Jakupović — both still searching for consistency — must capitalize on any transition chances in a likely 4-2-3-1. However, the big challenge remains: holding midfield together under Rijeka’s press while minimizing leaks at the back.

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The Verdict

Rijeka’s form, tactical stability, and home-field edge render them clear favourites. Expect them to dictate tempo, limit Osijek’s opportunities, and grind out a controlled win — quite possibly by two clear goals. With Osijek’s confidence at rock bottom and their attack sputtering, every metric, from discipline to creativity, tilts toward the home side. Our main pick is a Rijeka win with a potential clean sheet; anything less would be a surprise.

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