Rijeka vs Hajduk Split Prediction: 26.04.2026 1. HNL Preview

The 1. HNL encounter between Rijeka and Hajduk Split on April 26, 2026, is shaping up to be a pivotal battle in the race for European spots. Both teams enter the fixture under new management—Víctor Sánchez for Rijeka and Gonzalo García for Hajduk Split—adding an extra layer of tactical intrigue. Rijeka, currently fourth in the standings, are eager to close the gap on their Dalmatian rivals, while Hajduk Split sit second and look to secure their place in continental competition. With both sides favoring the 4-2-3-1 formation and a history of closely contested matches, this clash promises to deliver both tactical nuance and individual brilliance.

Key players to watch include Rijeka’s midfield dynamo Tiago Dantas, who has found the net twice in his last three outings and orchestrates much of Rijeka’s forward play, and Hajduk Split’s talismanic forward Marko Livaja, whose three goals in his last three appearances mark him as a constant threat. Both will be central to their teams’ ambitions on the day.

A hot stat from recent matches: Hajduk Split have completed a remarkable 2303 passes in their last five games, nearly 800 more than Rijeka, highlighting their possession-based approach under García.

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Rijeka vs Hajduk Split prediction

Given the recent form, squad strengths, and stylistic tendencies, Hajduk Split appear to hold a slight edge. Their 59% win rate this year and superior passing statistics point to a team comfortable in possession and capable of controlling the tempo. Rijeka, on the other hand, have struggled for consistency, particularly in front of goal, managing just two wins in their last five. However, the home advantage and their ability to create chances (69 shots in the last five matches) cannot be overlooked.

In terms of discipline, Rijeka have accumulated more yellow cards (9) and fouls (49) than Hajduk Split (5 yellows, 48 fouls) in their last five matches, indicating a slightly more aggressive approach. Hajduk Split’s efficiency in maintaining possession and avoiding cautions may help them dictate play and avoid dangerous set-piece scenarios. Expect a competitive contest with both sides pushing for a result, but Hajduk Split’s attacking options and ball retention give them a marginal edge.

Team Analysis

Rijeka have had a mixed run lately, winning only two of their last five matches. Their most recent outing ended in a disappointing 0-1 home defeat to Varazdin, where they struggled to break down a disciplined defense and lacked clinical finishing. Prior to that, Rijeka drew 2-2 against league leaders Dinamo Zagreb, showcasing resilience but also defensive frailties. Across these games, their midfield has shown promise, particularly Tiago Dantas, but the attack has often lacked bite, and defensive lapses have proven costly. The team’s higher yellow card count and tendency to commit fouls underline a willingness to disrupt opponents, though this could be a double-edged sword.

Hajduk Split arrive in better form, with two wins, one draw, and a single loss in their last four fixtures. However, their latest result—a 0-1 defeat at home to Osijek—exposed some vulnerabilities in breaking down compact defensive units. Before that, they posted a solid 2-2 away draw with Slaven Belupo and a narrow 1-0 win over Gorica, reflecting a team that grinds out results even when not at their best. Key performers such as Marko Livaja and Adrion Pajaziti have stepped up, and their disciplined defensive line (just five yellow cards in five games) has provided a stable platform for the attack to flourish.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Rijeka vs Hajduk Split stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Hajduk Split the favourite

• Moneyline Rijeka 2.82 | Hajduk Split 2.56
• Draw 3.12
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.05 | Under 2.5 1.75
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.90 | No 1.85

Bookmakers narrowly favor Hajduk Split, reflected in their slightly shorter odds compared to Rijeka. The draw remains a live option due to both teams’ tendency to play closely fought matches, as seen in previous head-to-heads. The odds on under 2.5 goals suggest expectations of a tightly contested, low-scoring encounter—something supported by both teams’ defensive records and the importance of this fixture in the race for European football. Both teams to score is a toss-up, but the data leans slightly towards “No,” given recent defensive solidity from Hajduk Split.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Rijeka possible starting eleven

• GK: Martin Zlomislić
• DF: Stjepan Radeljić, Ante Majstorović, Mladen Devetak, Justas Lasickas
• MF: Tiago Dantas, Alfonso Barco, Amer Gojak, Merveil Ndockyt, Toni Fruk
• FW: D. Adu-Adjei

Rijeka are expected to stick with their familiar 4-2-3-1 setup, leveraging the passing and creativity of Tiago Dantas and the goal threat of Toni Fruk. The back line, anchored by Majstorović and Radeljić, will need to stay compact against Hajduk’s dynamic forwards. Adu-Adjei’s work rate up front is crucial for pressing from the front, while Fruk’s recent goal-scoring exploits make him one to watch. The midfield duo of Barco and Gojak offer both steel and progression.

Hajduk Split possible starting eleven

• GK: Toni Silic
• DF: Zvonimir Šarlija, Dario Marešić, Dario Melnjak, Simun Hrgovic
• MF: Niko Kristian Sigur, Filip Krovinović, Adrion Pajaziti, Rokas Pukstas
• FW: Marko Livaja, Roko Brajkovic

Hajduk Split will likely mirror the 4-2-3-1 formation, with Šarlija and Marešić forming a disciplined partnership at the back. The creative heartbeat is provided by Pajaziti and Krovinović, while Livaja leads the line with his proven finishing ability. Brajkovic’s energy on the flank and Sigur’s industry in midfield are both integral to controlling transitions. The balance of technical skill and tactical discipline in this lineup could be decisive.

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My take on the Match

Given the balance of quality, recent form, and tactical approaches, my main pick is Hajduk Split Draw No Bet. They have demonstrated superior control in midfield and greater discipline defensively, while Marko Livaja’s form gives them a reliable attacking outlet. Rijeka’s home form and ability to generate shots means they can’t be discounted, but a lack of consistent finishing and a propensity for picking up cards make them the riskier side here. Expect a game of fine margins, potentially decided by a single moment of brilliance or a defensive lapse.

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