Levi Rothermund
Riga FC welcome Vardar to Skonto Stadium for the second leg of their UEFA Conference League 2026/27 Second Qualifying Round tie. The Latvian side hold a narrow 3-2 advantage from the first leg, meaning Vardar need to score at least twice and keep Riga out to advance. That is a tall order against a team that has won five of its last seven matches and sits among the more convincing performers in this qualifying round. The tie is very much alive, but Riga’s home record and overall quality make them the clear favourite to close this out.
One player to watch for Riga is midfielder Iago Siqueira, who has been in exceptional form, contributing five goals and an assist across the last five matches. His ability to arrive late into the box makes him hard to track. For Vardar, forward Goran Zakarić is the most dangerous outlet, with one goal and three assists in his last four appearances, and he will be central to any Macedonian comeback attempt.
Hot stat: Riga FC have scored 12 goals across their last five matches, averaging 2.4 per game, while also generating 84 total shots in that same period.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Skonto, Riga |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Riga FC vs Vardar Prediction
Riga FC winning this match is the most straightforward and well-supported outcome here. They lead the tie, they are playing at home, the bookmakers price them at roughly 69% probability, and their recent form backs that up. Winning the match outright at odds around 1.30-1.34 is reasonable value given the circumstances.
We think the more interesting angle is the total goals market. Both legs of this tie have produced goals from both sides, and Vardar need to attack. Riga are not particularly cautious in possession either, averaging over 2 goals per game in their last five. An over 2.5 goals line makes sense, and Both Teams to Score lands as a genuine option given Vardar’s attacking need and Riga’s occasional defensive vulnerability shown in recent 3-2 scorelines.
Riga have accumulated 17 yellow cards across five matches, suggesting they can be aggressive in the press. Vardar picked up 13 cards of their own and committed fouls at a notable rate in the first leg. That physical edge to this tie could mean set pieces play a role, and with Riga generating 28 corner kicks in five matches compared to Vardar’s 15, the home side will look to create danger from wide areas repeatedly.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Iago Siqueira to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Riga FC have been the most consistent side in this tie and in their recent domestic run. Over the last 30 days they have won five of seven matches, and their season-long record of 22 wins from 31 games reflects a team that knows how to close out results. In the first leg they came from behind and found a way to win 3-2, which says something about their character. Before that, they beat Tukums 2000 3-1 and defeated Ararat-Armenia 3-2 in a high-quality Europa qualifier. The only real blemish was a 0-2 home defeat to Ararat-Armenia in the first leg of that earlier tie, but they responded well. Adrian Gula’s side operates in a 4-3-3 structure that gives them width and plenty of midfield runners, and that system has produced goals consistently.
Vardar come into this second leg having beaten Bregalnica Stip 2-0 in their most recent domestic match, which at least provides some confidence. Their record over the last 30 days shows three wins, two losses, and one draw from six games, which is decent but not dominant. The 2-3 first-leg defeat here hurt, and their earlier results against KuPs showed inconsistency, losing 0-2 before winning 2-0 in the return. Cristian Fabbiani deploys a 3-5-2 shape that gives them width through the wing-backs and can cause problems when the press is high. Diego Castañeda has scored twice in three appearances and will need to be sharp if Vardar are to produce the comeback they need.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have only met once before this tie, in the first leg just days ago. The stats below reflect that match.
| Statistic | Riga FC | Vardar |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Riga FC vs Vardar stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Riga FC the Favourite
- Moneyline Riga FC 1.34 | Vardar 8.10
- Draw 4.90
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Riga at 1.34 is short but fair given the context. They lead the tie, they are at home, and Vardar are ranked significantly lower. The draw at 4.90 is not particularly attractive because Vardar would still need to win the eventual aggregate or force extra time, and a draw here only benefits Riga. Vardar at 8.10 reflects how much they need to do. Honestly, the best approach is pairing the Riga win with over 2.5 goals, since Vardar have to attack and Riga have the quality to punish them on the counter.
Vardar. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Riga FC Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Marcis Kazainis
- DF: Andrés Salazar, Raivis Jurkovskis, Baba Musah, Antonijs Černomordijs
- MF: Karl Gameni Wassom, Ahmed Ankrah, Orlando Galo Calderon
- FW: Iago Siqueira, Muhammed Badammosi, Raki Aouani
Riga’s 4-3-3 shape relies heavily on the midfield trio to control tempo. Wassom provides defensive cover and pass accuracy, while Calderon and Siqueira push forward with real intent. Siqueira is the standout name, five goals in five matches is a remarkable return for a midfielder, and he will look to exploit any space Vardar’s wing-backs leave behind. Badammosi offers a physical presence up front, and Jurkovskis’s two assists from right back suggest he contributes significantly in transition.
Vardar Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Davor Taleski
- DF: Georgije Jankulov, Matic, Nenad Miskovski
- MF: Boban Nikolov, David Babunski, Filip Duranski, Miguel Pires
- FW: Goran Zakarić, Diego Castañeda, Ian Lucas Puleio Araya
Fabbiani’s 3-5-2 morphs into a three-man attack when Vardar push forward, which they will need to do from the first whistle here. Zakarić is the creative hub, linking play from deep positions and contributing three assists recently. Castañeda is the most direct goal threat with two goals in three games. Matic has picked up three yellow cards in four appearances, so he is one booking away from suspension and may need to be cautious, which could limit Vardar’s aggression in midfield.
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Riga. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Riga FC should win this and advance. Their first-leg victory was not a fluke. They generated more shots, more corners, and more dangerous moments than Vardar, and their squad depth gives Gula more options to manage the game. Vardar will push forward early and may create some chaos, but Riga’s midfield control through Wassom and Siqueira should absorb that pressure and hit back on the break.
We think this ends 2-1 or 2-0 to Riga, confirming their progression to the next round. The over 2.5 goals line lands as the primary betting recommendation, with Both Teams to Score as a solid secondary option given Vardar’s attacking obligation. Iago Siqueira scoring anytime is the value pick at whatever price the market offers, given his current form is simply too consistent to ignore.
