Rafael Nogueira
A crucial clash awaits in the lower half of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série C regular season as Retro take on Londrina PR at Arena De Pernambuco. With Retro struggling to escape the relegation zone and Londrina showing greater consistency, this encounter could have significant ramifications for both sides’ campaigns. One notable subplot to watch: Londrina boast a win rate twice as high as Retro in 2025, putting extra pressure on the hosts to deliver in front of their home crowd.
Key players to watch include Londrina’s constant attacking threat, often orchestrated by their dynamic midfielders and supported by a clinical forward line, and Retro’s defensive leadership, especially at the back. While both teams have rotated goalkeepers in recent rounds, their outfield form will prove decisive here.
A “hot stat” worth highlighting: Londrina PR have scored four times in their last five matches while Retro failed to find the net, underlining the visitors’ superior attacking form in the run-up to this game.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série C 2025, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena De Pernambuco, Sao Lourenco da Mata |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.06.2025 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:00 CEST |
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Retro vs Londrina PR prediction
The smart value play for this match is to back Londrina PR on a Draw No Bet or Asian Handicap 0 outcome. With a recent win rate of 50% compared to Retro’s 20% over the last month, and sitting much higher in the standings, Londrina’s current form is hard to ignore. Retro have failed to score in their last three games, while Londrina have shown marked improvement in both attack and defense with just one loss in their previous five outings and solid results against top-half opponents.
Both teams average a moderate number of yellow cards (Retro 6, Londrina 4 in last five), suggesting a tense but not overly aggressive contest. Interestingly, neither team committed excessive fouls or saw red cards in their recent matches, but Londrina’s slightly superior ball retention and offensive production as seen in their higher shot count (24 to Retro’s 21) may translate to more control in midfield. Corners stand level (7 each in last five), pointing to a balanced match in set-piece opportunities. Expect Londrina to look for openings on the break, capitalizing on Retro’s goal drought and shaky recent form.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Londrina PR Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 10.5 |
Team Analysis
Retro recent form: Retro continued their downward momentum last time out, registering a goalless draw at home against Anapolis a side yet to win a league match all season. Their prior outings saw defeats to Guarani (0-2) and Botafogo PB (0-1), and just a single goal since early June. Creativity and finishing have deserted them, as echoed by the supporters’ frustration post-match: “We need more from our forwards, not just ball possession,” said coach Jeff Strasser. Defensive discipline remains a relative bright spot, but the lack of goals is becoming critical.
Londrina PR recent form: In contrast, Londrina PR have demonstrated resilience and offensive spark. A 2-1 win over Figueirense capped their last five matches, complemented by a hard-fought 2-4 loss to high-flying SER Caxias and a controlled 2-0 win over Confianca. Even in drawn encounters, such as the 1-1 against ABC, Londrina showcased tenacity and tactical organization. The consensus among fans: “Our teamwork is getting sharper this squad is finally gelling,” paraphrased from coach Eduardo Souza after their last home victory.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Retro | Londrina PR |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 21 | 24 |
| Corner kicks | 7 | 7 |
🚨Read our full Retro vs Londrina PR stats for more analysis.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Retro the favourite
- Moneyline Retro 2.25 | Londrina PR 3.00
- Draw 2.85
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.45 | Under 2.5 1.67
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.80
Despite recent form, the bookmakers narrowly favor Retro for their home advantage, but the odds imply a very competitive encounter. Londrina’s attractive Away price carries value given their superior win rate and form on both sides of the ball. Under 2.5 is strongly backed due to Retro’s goal drought and both teams’ recent record for low-scoring games.
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Given recent match continuity and player selections, expect coach Strasser to keep faith in his usual back four, supported by a midfield tasked primarily with ball recovery rather than creativity. With scoring woes up front, a 4-2-3-1 formation is likely, centering on a lone striker and hopeful wingers feeding off set pieces. Key to note: Retro’s defensive anchor will be pivotal, but the lack of conversion up top remains their Achilles heel. Watch out for attacking midfielder who often drifts between the lines in search of breakthroughs.
Londrina, meanwhile, will likely field a similar 4-2-3-1 setup, but with more freedom for their wide players and a strong attacking midfielder pulling strings just behind the striker. Expect the back line which has contributed to the team’s consistency to remain unchanged. After recent positive results, forward momentum built down the flanks will be a decisive factor. Keep an eye on their in-form winger, who can be the game-changer in tight encounters.
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Londrina PR. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Given current form and recent stats, my top pick is Londrina PR on Draw No Bet. Retro’s home advantage is negated by their lack of firepower and inability to convert chances, while Londrina have proven more dangerous in transition and boast a healthier points tally under pressure. Expect a hard-fought, possibly low-scoring game, but the visitors simply bring more attacking discipline and belief.
