Real Sociedad vs Osasuna Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Copa Del Rey - 13.01.2026

The stage is set at the Anoeta Stadium in San Sebastian as Real Sociedad welcomes Osasuna for a compelling Round of 16 clash in the Copa Del Rey 2025/26. Scheduled for January 13th, 2026 at 22:00 CEST, this fixture brings together two clubs with contrasting recent fortunes and high ambitions. Under the guidance of Pellegrino Matarazzo, Real Sociedad seek to harness their home advantage, while Alessio Lisci’s Osasuna arrives keen to punch above their weight in knockout football.

Among the outfield talents, Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad) has been in electric form with a goal and two assists in his last four matches, while Osasuna’s Ante Budimir stands out, having contributed three goals in his recent five outings a vital presence in their attack. Hot on the heels of these two, keep an eye on the creative pulse of Brais Méndez for Sociedad and the industrious midfield efforts of Jon Moncayola for Osasuna. Notably, Real Sociedad have conceded just one goal per match over their last five, reflecting new-found defensive solidity, whereas Osasuna’s higher foul and yellow card counts may signal vulnerabilities under pressure.

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Real Sociedad vs Osasuna predictions

My best bet: Real Sociedad to win (Home, ~1.95 odds)
The value leans toward Real Sociedad, primarily because of their consistent home record and recent ability to grind out results, exemplified by a win and a draw against well-organized sides like Getafe and Atletico Madrid. The team also boasts slightly superior shot conversion and maintains stability in midfield, with technical players such as Kubo and Méndez regularly influencing proceedings.
Osasuna, by contrast, have struggled for form with a 20 percent win rate in their last five, punctuated by narrow defeats and an evident struggle to control possession away from home. Their defensive line, prone to errors under pressing, could be in for a challenging evening against Sociedad’s fluid attacking setup.
In terms of discipline and control, Sociedad averages just 8 yellow cards and 57 fouls over their last five, compared to Osasuna’s 15 yellow cards and 60 fouls, suggesting a higher likelihood of disrupted rhythm and potential suspensions for the visitors. Expect Sociedad’s structured approach and balance to tip the scales.

Prop picks by me:

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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Reflecting on recent contests, Real Sociedad have largely held the upper hand, including two separate multi-goal victories in their last three meetings (4-1 in a friendly, 3-1 in the current La Liga campaign). Notably, Osasuna’s pair of 2-1 away wins in 2024 broke a brief pattern, underscoring their capacity for upsets when their counter-attacking structure clicks. Still, across competitive matches, Sociedad has outscored Osasuna 11 to 7 in the last six fixtures, with marginally better pass accuracy and a keener edge in set-piece situations.

🚨Read our full Real Sociedad vs Osasuna stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Real Sociedad: Unbeaten in four of the last five home fixtures.
• Osasuna: Only one clean sheet in the last seven matches.
• Kubo (Real Sociedad): Directly involved in 3 goals in 4 recent matches.
• Budimir (Osasuna): 3 goals in last 5 appearances.
• Osasuna: Averaging 3 yellow cards per game over last five, disciplinary concern.
• Sociedad: 60 total shots in last five, indicating offensive activity.
• Previous H2H: Sociedad has won 3 of past 4 cup or league meetings.

Real Sociedad vs Osasuna score prediction: 2-0

Considering form, home advantage, and tactical discipline, expect Sociedad to control proceedings. Kubo and Guedes provide the creative and scoring sparks, while the solid defensive axis led by Elustondo and Remiro can contain Osasuna’s focal point Budimir. Osasuna’s attacking duo has shown tenacity but often struggles on the road against structured opposition. A disciplined 2-0 win for the hosts seems the most logical outcome.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Real Sociedad the favourite

The bookmakers rightfully install Real Sociedad as favourites given their superior recent form and higher win percentage at home. Odds indicate a low-scoring affair, with ‘Under 2.5 goals’ tipped by sharp market movements. Osasuna’s volatility scoring fewer but conceding more on the road supports both the “Sociedad win” and “BTTS: No” markets as value plays.

Real Sociedad vs Osasuna Over/Under Analysis

• 4 of the last 5 Real Sociedad matches have seen Under 2.5 goals.
• 3 of last 5 Osasuna fixtures finished with fewer than 3 goals.
• No match between these sides has surpassed 4 goals since early 2024.
• Osasuna’s attack on the road averages just 1 goal per match in latest five outings.
• Sociedad defence at Anoeta has not conceded more than once in past 5 matches.

Real Sociedad Preview

Sociedad’s recent fixtures solidify their status as a robust cup competitor. Their most recent outing, a 2-1 home victory over Getafe, underlined both resilience and an evolving attack. Goals from Takefusa Kubo and Gonçalo Guedes ensured a quick tempo, while a sturdy midfield shield preserved their slender lead. Drawing Atletico Madrid and Levante in previous rounds showed tactical balance, negotiating high-intensity presses without conceding control. Notably, the defence anchored by Aritz Elustondo has maintained composure, with Remiro’s confidence in goal and a disciplined backline limiting clear opportunities for the opposition.

Real Sociedad possible starting eleven

Osasuna Preview

For Osasuna, inconsistency marks their latest round of matches. Their last 0-1 loss at Girona typified their struggles in chance creation away from Pamplona. While home games against Athletic Bilbao and Alavés produced spark particularly a commanding 3-0 win over Alavés Alessio Lisci’s men have managed just five goals in their previous five. Their discipline remains a concern, with 15 yellow cards and 60 fouls, while lead striker Ante Budimir offers a singular outlet but is often isolated. Osasuna’s midfield, marshaled by Jon Moncayola, works diligently, yet turnovers under pressure have hindered their transition play.

Osasuna possible starting eleven

The Verdict

Our expert pick is a Real Sociedad win, backed by superior tactical structure, greater attacking fluency, and defensive resilience at home. The expected winning probability, from the Tips.GG AI engine, stands at 48 percent for Sociedad, 29 percent draw, and 23 percent Osasuna. Discipline and ball retention are set to be the decisive factors expect Sociedad to turn those advantages into a ticket to the quarter-finals.

How to watch Real Sociedad vs Osasuna

• When? January 13th, 2026, 22:00 CEST
• Where? Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian
• How to watch: Local broadcast on Movistar+, worldwide streaming via select Copa Del Rey partners
• Favorite: Real Sociedad

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