Sofia Quijada
Few fixtures in La Liga carry the gravitas of a late-season clash at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, and this contest on April 21, 2026, promises plenty. Real Madrid, led by Álvaro Arbeloa, currently second in the standings and eager to challenge eternal rivals Barcelona, face a determined Alavés side guided by Quique Sánchez Flores. Scheduled to kick off at 22:30 CEST, the match sits at a pivotal juncture in the La Liga 2025/26 campaign, with both teams eyeing vital points for distinctly different ambitions—Madrid to keep title hopes alive, Alavés to stave off relegation threats.
All eyes will be on Kylian Mbappé, whose explosive pace and technical prowess have repeatedly unlocked stubborn defenses for Los Blancos, and Toni Martínez of Alavés, one of the visitors’ most clinical finishers this season. These duels within the larger battle could prove decisive, especially as both players bring recent goalscoring form.
A “hot stat” to note: Real Madrid have scored nine goals in their last five matches but have also seen their defensive line breached nine times—an uncharacteristic vulnerability for the Bernabéu giants in the closing stretch of the campaign.
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Real Madrid vs Alavés predictions
Me best bet: Real Madrid to win and Over 2.5 goals. The rationale here is crystal clear—while Real Madrid’s attacking options are among Europe’s best, their recent defensive lapses are equally notable. Alavés, meanwhile, have shown the ability to find the net with regularity, scoring in each of their last four outings, and recent H2Hs have consistently delivered at least three goals. Expect Real Madrid to claim the three points, but not without drama at the back.
Examining the teams’ recent discipline and playing style, Real Madrid average roughly 9.6 fouls and 1.8 yellow cards per game over their last five, signaling a willing physical edge but not reckless indiscipline. Their possession-heavy approach (high pass accuracy at 88 percent) should see them control tempo, but defensive transitions remain a concern. Alavés, with a slightly lower pass accuracy, deploy a pragmatic, counter-attacking 4-4-2 with moderate aggression, as their 8 cards in five games and 41 fouls suggest, but rarely tip over into chaos. Expect Alavés to look for quick transitions, hoping to exploit any lapses in Madrid’s shape.
- ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
- 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
- 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5
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Real Madrid vs Alavés Most recent H2Hs
| Statistic | Real Madrid | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2, 1, 3 | 1, 0, 2 |
| Total shots | 17, 14, 11 | 8, 7, 9 |
| Free kicks | 12, 10, 11 | 9, 8, 10 |
| Corner kicks | 8, 7, 6 | 4, 3, 4 |
| Total fouls | 13, 9, 11 | 11, 8, 12 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 88, 85, 87 | 79, 80, 77 |
| Interceptions | 5, 7, 6 | 7, 6, 8 |
| Offsides | 3, 1, 2 | 1, 2, 1 |
Recent meetings reflect Madrid’s dominance but hint at competitive exchanges—each match decided by a single goal or less, with Alavés repeatedly capable of disrupting Madrid’s rhythm with clever counter-attacks. The 3-2 thriller in 2024 stands out as evidence that Madrid’s defensive lines are not impenetrable, while Alavés’ resilience, especially in the latter stages, is a recurring theme.
🚨Read our full Real Madrid vs Alavés stats for more analysis.
Key Stats
- Real Madrid have scored in 11 consecutive La Liga home games.
- Alavés have drawn three of their last four league matches, but are winless in their last six away games.
- Kylian Mbappé and Toni Martínez have scored a combined five goals in their last six league appearances.
- Real Madrid’s pass accuracy over the last five matches stands at an elite 88 percent.
- Alavés have conceded at least twice in four of their last five league games.
Real Madrid vs Alavés score prediction: 3-1
Expect fireworks in the Spanish capital, with Real Madrid asserting their supremacy but conceding at least once. Kylian Mbappé’s pace and inventiveness, coupled with the midfield drive of Valverde, should generate a plethora of chances. For Alavés, watch for Toni Martínez’s aerial threat and the energetic running of Angel Pérez Hidalgo as key sources of danger. While Madrid’s attacking depth is hard to look past, vulnerability in transition remains—so a consolation Alavés goal seems on the cards.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Real Madrid the favourite
| Moneyline | Real Madrid 1.30 | Alavés 9.50 | |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 5.80 | |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 1.57 | Under 2.5 2.35 | |
| BTTS (both teams to score) | Yes 2.05 | No 1.75 | |
Bookmakers are resounding in their favoritism for Real Madrid, with win probability estimates at 74 percent, leaving Alavés as significant outsiders. These odds reflect both sides’ form and table positions, but also the weight of the Bernabéu factor. The slim value on a Madrid win indicates that betting markets anticipate a routine victory, yet with over 2.5 goals at 1.57 and BTTS at 2.05, there remains space for a high-scoring affair driven by Madrid’s offense and fleeting vulnerabilities at the back.
Real Madrid vs Alavés Over/Under Analysis
- Four of the last five Real Madrid home matches have surpassed 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in each of Alavés’ last four league matches.
- Real Madrid average 1.8 goals per match at home this season.
- Alavés have not kept a clean sheet in their last six away fixtures.
- Expect Over 8.5 corners, given Madrid’s attacking volume and Alavés’ reliance on set pieces for offensive production.
Alaves. Source: Official Facebook
Real Madrid Preview
Real Madrid enter the fixture on the back of a bruising run—losing narrowly to Bayern Munich (3-4) in Europe and drawing 1-1 with Girona in their most recent La Liga outing. The Blancos started the month with a statement 3-2 victory over Atletico but have since displayed intermittent lapses, evidenced by consecutive defeats against Mallorca and Bayern. Despite the stumbles, their attacking depth, led by Mbappé and Vinícius, remains world-class. Ball control is immaculate, as their 88 percent passing accuracy over the last five matches attests. The risk, as ever, comes in defensive transitions, with opponents capitalizing on aggressive forward play to find joy on the counterattack. With the Bernabéu crowds roaring, expect Madrid to impose their rhythm early, seeking to overwhelm Alavés with high tempo and quick combinations through midfield.
Real Madrid possible starting eleven
- GK: Andriy Lunin
- DF: Daniel Carvajal, Éder Militão, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ferland Mendy
- MF: Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, Jude Bellingham, Aurelien Tchouameni
- FW: Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius
Alavés Preview
Alavés arrive at the Bernabéu with resilience in their DNA. Their formline is punctuated by draws (three in their last four matches: 3-3 vs Real Sociedad, 2-2 vs Osasuna, 1-1 vs Villarreal) and a spirited 4-3 triumph over Celta. Coach Quique Sánchez Flores has molded a pragmatic unit, adept at absorbing pressure and springing rapid counters—especially via the in-form Toni Martínez and the tireless Angel Pérez Hidalgo. While their defense has shown cracks—conceding nine goals in five games—they are never out of contests, and their midfield, marshaled by Antonio Blanco and Jon Guridi, excels in high-press situations. The Bernabéu will test their composure, but expect Alavés to target transitional moments, especially as Madrid push numbers forward.
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Nahuel Tenaglia, Victor Parada, Jonny Otto, Jon Pacheco
- MF: Jon Guridi, Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras, Angel Pérez Hidalgo
- FW: Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé
Our prediction: Who Wins?
On behalf of the TipsGG expert team, our main pick is a Real Madrid win with over 2.5 goals scored. Madrid’s home firepower, combined with Alavés’ defensive frailty, point to a likely outcome of 3-1 or 3-2. The collective experience and creativity of Madrid’s midfield—especially Bellingham and Valverde—should ensure consistent dominance in possession and territory. The winning probability, calculated by our dedicated AI prediction engine, stands at 74 percent for Real Madrid, 16 percent for a draw, and 10 percent for Alavés.
Real Madrid. Source: Official Facebook
How to watch Real Madrid vs Alavés
- When? April 21, 2026
- Kick-off time. 21:30 CEST
- Where? Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid
- How to watch: La Liga broadcasters, official streaming partners
- Favorite: Real Madrid
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