Levi Rothermund
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Leipzig welcome Hamburg to the Red Bull Arena with the table already telling a brutal story. HSV sit rock bottom without a single point or goal in the league this season, while Leipzig arrive nursing a strange midweek hiccup of their own, a 1-4 loss to Como that nobody in Saxony saw coming. This one looks lopsided on paper, but Leipzig’s home form hasn’t been flawless either, and that gives the fixture a small edge of intrigue.
Watch Antonio Nusa for the hosts. He’s scored twice and fired 15 shots across his last five appearances, and against a Hamburg backline that has shipped seven goals in two league games, he could feast. On the other side, Albert Grönbaek is basically carrying Hamburg’s attack alone right now, with two goals in his last three outings while teammates around him have gone quiet.
Hot stat: Hamburger SV have failed to score in either of their two Bundesliga matches this season, and across their last five games in all competitions they’ve managed just 3 goals from 26 total shots. Leipzig, by comparison, have fired 96 shots and scored 12 times over the same stretch. That gap is about as wide as it gets in top-flight football.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:30 CEST |
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV prediction
We think Leipzig win this comfortably, and honestly the value isn’t really in the moneyline at such short odds. It’s in the goals markets. Hamburg have conceded seven without reply in their opening two league fixtures, and their away form this year reads as one of the worst in the division. Leipzig, even coming off that odd Como defeat, still average well over two goals scored per match domestically.
Leipzig commit fouls at a moderate rate (44 in their last five) but keep the ball far more, completing passes at close to 88% accuracy compared to Hamburg’s roughly 82%. That gap in possession control usually translates into more shots, more corners, and more chances for Hamburg’s tired defense to crack again. Hamburg’s discipline hasn’t been terrible card-wise, only 3 yellows in five matches, but a side under this much pressure tends to pick up bookings once it starts chasing the game.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | RB Leipzig to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Leipzig’s last five results have been a mixed bag: a 3-0 win over Gladbach, a 6-0 demolition of Eintracht Trier, but also losses to Bayern Munich, Werder Bremen, and most recently a jarring 1-4 defeat to Como. That last result stands out. Losing by three goals to a side rated well below their level suggests either heavy squad rotation or a genuine defensive wobble worth monitoring heading into this weekend.
Hamburg’s picture is grimmer. Their last five games brought only two wins, against Verl and Toulouse, sandwiched between losses to Lille, Borussia Dortmund, and a humbling 0-5 defeat to Mainz in their most recent outing. Zero goals across their first two league matches this season paints a team that’s struggling to create anything meaningful up front, and that trend looks set to continue against a much sharper Leipzig side.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: RB Leipzig the favourite
- Moneyline RB Leipzig 1.34 | Hamburger SV 6.97
- Draw 5.21
Bookmakers put Leipzig at roughly 69% to win this one, with the draw sitting at 18% and Hamburg trailing at just 13%. Given Hamburg’s scoring drought and Leipzig’s raw attacking numbers this season, those figures look fair, maybe even slightly generous toward Hamburg. We wouldn’t be shocked if the gap widens further once markets react to Hamburg’s latest defensive collapse.
Possible Starting Lineups
RB Leipzig possible starting eleven
- GK: Maarten Vandevoordt
- DF: David Raum, Willi Orbán, Castello Lukeba, Ridle Baku
- MF: Nicolas Seiwald, Ezechiel Banzuzi, Antonio Nusa, Brajan Gruda, Johan Bakayoko
- FW: Tidiam Gomis
Demichelis has leaned on a 4-2-3-1 in recent weeks, and the personnel above reflects the players who’ve featured in all five recent matches. Nusa is the one to watch in the number ten role, he’s been directly involved in Leipzig’s sharpest attacking moves lately. Gomis leads the line but often drops deep to link play rather than sit as a pure target man.
Hamburger SV possible starting eleven
- GK: Daniel Heuer Fernandes
- DF: David Moller Wolfe, Sebastiaan Bornauw, Jordan Torunarigha, Shafiq Nandja
- MF: Nicolai Remberg, Nicolás Capaldo, Louis Pepe Lemke
- FW: Bakery Jatta, Patson Daka, Albert Grönbaek
Polzin keeps faith in a 4-3-3 shape, but with the goal tally this poor, expect changes if things start going wrong early. Grönbaek is pushed forward as the team’s main creative outlet since he’s the only player producing consistent numbers. Daka’s movement up top will be tested hard against a much stronger Leipzig back line.
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Hamburger SV. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We’re backing Leipzig here, and not by a small margin. Hamburg haven’t scored a league goal all season and their away form this year has been close to unwatchable. Leipzig’s Como slip was odd, but domestically their attack keeps producing, and Hamburg’s defense keeps leaking. Our call is Leipzig to win, over 2.5 total goals, and BTTS No, since Hamburg’s finishing has looked non-existent for weeks now.
