Liam Duckstein
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Rakow Czestochowa host Hajduk Split in the second leg of their UEFA Conference League 2026/27 Playoffs tie, with the aggregate score locked at 2-2 after a tense first meeting. Everything is still to play for. Dawid Kroczek’s side will lean on home support at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, but Gonzalo García’s Croatian outfit have the slightly stronger recent form and carry genuine attacking threat into this fixture.
Two players to watch are Rakow striker Mahir Emreli, who leads his team with three goals in the last five matches and adds a consistent shot threat, and Hajduk’s Michele Šego, who has scored four goals across the same stretch and is clearly in the form of his season.
A hot stat worth flagging: Hajduk Split have generated 97 total shots across their last five matches, significantly outpacing Rakow’s 71 in the same window. That volume of attacking intent, combined with 16 goals scored compared to Rakow’s seven, tells a clear story about where the attacking momentum sits heading into this second leg.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27 – Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Czestochowa |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Rakow vs Hajduk Split Prediction
With the tie level at 2-2 on aggregate and no away goals rule in play, this second leg is effectively a standalone match. Rakow play at home and the bookmakers price them as slight favourites, but their last 30 days tell a mixed story of three wins, three losses, and two draws. Hajduk arrive with four wins from eight in the same period and a 57% win rate across the full season compared to Rakow’s 37%.
We predict this match produces goals. Both teams have shown they can score and concede, the first leg ended 2-2, and neither side has the defensive solidity to shut things down completely. The value lies in backing both teams to score and targeting over 2.5 goals. Hajduk’s attacking output has been consistently higher, and Rakow will need to push forward at home, which opens space at the back.
Rakow commit fewer fouls on average across their last five matches, with 20 compared to Hajduk’s 45, and their pass accuracy sits at a comparable level. Hajduk’s disciplinary record is heavier, picking up 16 yellow cards and 2 red cards in five games, which creates the possibility of the match turning on a key moment of recklessness. Rakow’s more controlled approach could serve them well in tight moments, but Hajduk’s higher passing volume and shot creation numbers suggest they will create more chances overall.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hajduk Split to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Rakow come into this second leg carrying some uncertainty from recent domestic results. They beat Hammarby 1-0 in European action before this tie, but dropped points in a 0-0 draw with Hammarby in the first leg of that earlier round and lost 1-2 to both Cracovia and Slask Wroclaw in the Polish league. Their form sequence shows a side that can produce good results but is prone to inconsistency. The first-leg draw with Hajduk fits that pattern. Mahir Emreli remains the most reliable attacking presence, and Lamine Diaby Fadiga adds pace and directness from forward areas. The midfield is experienced, with Jean Carlos and Oskar Repka providing passing structure, but Diedounne Gaucho Debohi’s seven fouls in five matches is a yellow card risk in a high-pressure knockout tie.
Hajduk Split enter this second leg in sharper form. Their most recent league fixture, a 4-0 win over Osijek, was a dominant display that underlined their attacking confidence. Before that, they drew 2-2 with Rakow in the first leg and beat Gorica 2-1 and Zalgiris 4-0 in earlier European action. The only blemish was a 2-2 draw with Istra 1961 in the league. Gonzalo García has a team that presses high, generates a high volume of shots, and scores goals across multiple contributors. Michele Šego, Marko Livaja, and Abdoulie Sanyang all carry a goal threat, while Adrion Pajaziti controls the midfield tempo with high pass accuracy and consistent pressing. Two red cards in the last five games do represent a risk, but their attacking depth means they can absorb those disruptions.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Rakow | Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 71 | 97 |
| Free kicks | 28 | 42 |
| Corner kicks | 23 | 31 |
| Total fouls | 20 | 45 |
| Interceptions | 20 | 11 |
| Offsides | 2 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Rakow vs Hajduk Split stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Rakow the Favourite
- Moneyline Rakow 2.04 | Hajduk Split 3.35
- Draw 3.35
Rakow’s home advantage drives the slight edge in the moneyline market, with most books pricing them between 1.86 and 2.10. Hajduk’s odds ranging from 2.48 to 3.85 reflect the market’s recognition that the Croatian side have real quality, but away knockout football against a motivated home team adds risk. The draw odds around 3.00 to 3.65 are worth noting given the first leg ended 2-2 and neither side has been dominant in recent weeks. To be honest, the draw at those prices is not without appeal, but the overall attacking output of both teams makes going under 2.5 goals a poor bet. The best value here sits in the goals markets rather than the match result.
Possible Starting Lineups
Rakow Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Kacper Trelowski
- DF: Bogdan Racovitan, Stratos Svarnas, Jerzy Napieraj
- MF: Michael Ameyaw, Jean Carlos, Oskar Repka, Diedounne Gaucho Debohi, Vladyslav Kochergin, Patryk Makuch
- FW: Mahir Emreli
Kacper Trelowski takes the gloves with nine saves across the last five matches, making him the clear first-choice goalkeeper. Racovitan and Svarnas form a dependable defensive base, with Svarnas also contributing a goal this period. The midfield is heavily populated in a 4-2-3-1 shape, reflecting Rakow’s tendency to control the middle of the pitch. Mahir Emreli leads the line as the most productive attacker, and Lamine Diaby Fadiga provides a useful option off the bench if Rakow need a goal. Patryk Makuch and Erick Otieno offer energy and creativity in the wider areas. Dawid Kroczek will likely set up compactly and look to hit on the counter, particularly in the first half.
Hajduk Split Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Toni Silic
- DF: Dario Marešić, Alec Van Hoorenbeeck, Luka Hodak, Dario Melnjak
- MF: Adrion Pajaziti, Alberto del Moral, Andelo Šutalo, Rokas Pukstas
- FW: Michele Šego, Marko Livaja
Toni Silic has been consistent in goal with five saves across recent matches. The back four is well-organised, with Dario Marešić providing 187 passes and a solid defensive presence alongside the energetic Alec Van Hoorenbeeck. Adrion Pajaziti anchors the midfield and is the engine of Hajduk’s press. Rokas Pukstas adds goals and assists from a box-to-box role. Up front, the partnership of Michele Šego and Marko Livaja is the most dangerous in this fixture, combining for seven goals in five matches. Gonzalo García will set up in a 4-2-3-1 and look to press Rakow high, using the wide areas to create crossing opportunities. Abdoulie Sanyang offers an effective impact option from the bench with three assists to his name.
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Rakow. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
This is a genuinely open tie. Rakow hold home advantage and will be motivated to finish the job in front of their own supporters, but Hajduk Split are the better-performing team across the season and carry far more attacking firepower on paper. The first leg produced four goals between two teams that both press forward when the moment demands it.
We predict both teams to score and the match to go over 2.5 goals. Hajduk’s shot volume and goal output in recent weeks is hard to ignore, and Rakow’s defensive record does not suggest they can keep a clean sheet against this level of opponent. Perhaps the most interesting market is Hajduk scoring in both halves, given their attacking consistency across the last five fixtures. Rakow are capable of nicking a result at home, but the aggregate picture and Hajduk’s overall quality point toward the Croatian side advancing. We lean toward a Hajduk Split win or a draw that sends the tie to extra time, with goals on both sides throughout.
