Racing Santander vs Alavés Prediction: 12.09.2026 La Liga Preview

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Racing Santander welcome Alavés to El Sardinero in a fixture that pits a struggling home side against one of the surprise packages of the early La Liga campaign. Alavés sit second in the standings after four rounds, level on points ambition with the traditional heavyweights, while Racing occupy 13th spot with just four points from the same number of games. The two clubs met in a pre-season friendly only weeks ago and shared the points 1-1, a result that offers little insight given the different squad rotations typical of that stage. What stands out here is the gap in current form: Alavés have won three of their last four matches, Racing have won only two of their last six.

Sergio Canales remains the creative pulse of the Racing midfield, and his set-piece delivery has produced a free-kick goal already this season, so his link-up with striker Yassir Zabiri, who has netted three times in his last four appearances, will be central to any home comeback. For Alavés, Lucas Boyé has been lethal in recent weeks with four goals in just three outings, and Mariano Díaz adds a further goal-and-assist threat that has driven the visitors’ 75% winrate over their last four matches.

Hot stat: Alavés have scored 10 goals across their last five matches compared to Racing’s 7, and the visitors have not lost a single game in their last four outings, a stretch that includes a 5-2 demolition of Osasuna.

Racing Santander vs Alavés prediction

Racing sit 13th with a negative goal difference and only one win from their last six matches, while Alavés arrive as the form team of the division, unbeaten in four with a 75% winrate over the last month. We predict Alavés to leave Santander with at least a point, and the double chance market on the visitors offers the cleanest value given the disparity in current momentum. Perhaps the pre-season friendly draw between these two sides flatters Racing more than their league form suggests.

Racing’s defense has conceded eight goals in four league games and their 3-5-2 setup has looked porous against pace on the counter, exactly the kind of threat Boyé and Mariano Díaz provide. Alavés commit slightly more fouls per game (58 to Racing’s 60, fairly close) and have picked up 10 yellow cards over their last five outings against Racing’s 9, so the discipline gap is minimal, but Alavés’ higher shot volume (54 to 45) and superior pass accuracy suggest they control matches more consistently. Expect goals at both ends given each side’s tendency to leak chances defensively.

Team Analysis

Racing’s recent run reads as inconsistent: a 2-3 loss to Rayo Vallecano, a battling 3-2 win over Elche, and a 0-1 defeat to Getafe sandwiched around a 2-2 draw with Villarreal. Their last league outing against Rayo showed the same pattern that has cost them points all season, taking a lead only to concede late, this time shipping the winner after going 2-1 up. The pattern of conceding in bunches, 8 goals in 4 matches, is a real concern heading into this one.

Alavés, by contrast, have been ruthless in front of goal. Their 5-2 win over Osasuna was built on clinical finishing from Boyé and Mariano Díaz, backed by a defense that has kept things tight against lesser sides. The 1-0 win over Villarreal before that showed they can also grind out results when chances are scarce, a sign of a squad comfortable in multiple game states.

🚨Check out our dedicated Racing Santander vs Alavés stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Racing Santander the favourite

• Moneyline Racing Santander 2.40 | Alavés 2.78
• Draw 3.50
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.85
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.75 | No 2.00

Bookmakers lean slightly toward Racing thanks to home advantage, but the gap between 2.40 and 2.78 is thin and does not reflect the difference in current form. To be honest, we think this line undervalues Alavés given their unbeaten run and superior attacking numbers, which is exactly why the double chance market on the visitors looks like the sharper play here.

Possible Starting Lineups

José Alberto López is expected to stick with the 3-5-2 that has featured in each of the last five matches. Canales pulls the strings from a deeper role, while Zabiri’s pace up top gives Racing a direct outlet against a high Alavés back line.

Quique Sánchez Flores has kept faith with a 4-4-2 shape all season, and it suits the strike partnership of Boyé and Mariano Díaz, who between them account for seven goals and three assists in the last five games. Sivera’s reliability in goal, 13 saves across four matches, gives the side a solid base to build from.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Racing’s home comfort at El Sardinero counts for something, but the numbers point firmly toward Alavés. Twelve league points from four matches, a 75% winrate in the last month, and a front two scoring at will make the visitors the more reliable side on current evidence. We predict a tight, goal-filled game that ends level or with an Alavés win, backed by Boyé or Mariano Díaz finding the net again. Racing’s leaky defense, eight goals conceded in four league games, makes BTTS and over 2.5 goals our preferred markets alongside the double chance on the away side.

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