Sofia Quijada
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Racing Club sit dead last in the Clausura table with just five points from nine games, yet bookmakers still send them out as clear favourites against a Sarmiento Junin side that occupies sixth place. That gap between reputation and current form is the story of this fixture. Racing have lost three straight matches and shown little going forward, while Sarmiento arrive on the back of a strong month with three wins in their last five outings. We predict the market has this one wrong, and the numbers below explain why.
Marcos Rojo remains Racing’s defensive anchor and the closest thing to a goal threat from the back line, having contributed a goal in recent weeks despite the team’s struggles up front. For Sarmiento, Junior Marabel is the player to watch, with two goals and an assist in his last four appearances and the form to punish a shaky Racing rearguard.
Hot stat: Racing Club fired 74 shots across their last five league matches and scored only five goals, a conversion rate barely above 6%. Sarmiento needed just 43 shots to score six times in the same span, nearly double the efficiency. That gulf in finishing tells us more about this matchup than the table position does.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Argentine Primera Division 2026, Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Juan Domingo Perón, Buenos Aires |
| 🗓️ Date: | 19.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:15 CEST |
Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin prediction
Backing the heavy favourite here feels risky given Racing’s season, so our value pick leans toward Sarmiento Junin on the double chance market, covering both a draw and an away win. Sarmiento have won three of their last five, sit above Racing by eleven points, and boast a much sharper attack in terms of shot conversion. Racing’s home advantage and superior passing volume keep them competitive, but their inability to finish chances makes a clean win far from guaranteed.
Racing dominate the underlying numbers on paper, averaging around 81% pass accuracy compared to Sarmiento’s 67%, and they have taken 21 corners against Sarmiento’s 11 across their last five matches each. That territorial control has not translated into results, evidenced by 11 yellow cards in five games, a sign of frustration mounting as chances go begging. Sarmiento foul less (47 vs 52) and play a more direct, efficient game, which should let them threaten on the counter even without the ball for long stretches.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Junior Marabel to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Racing Club’s last match ended in a 1-2 home defeat to Huracan, extending a run that now reads three losses in a row. In our preview of Huracan vs Racing Club we called Draw No Bet on Huracan as the smarter angle over backing Racing outright, and the 2-1 result went in Huracan’s favor, so that call landed. Before that setback Racing had drawn with Boca and beaten Belgrano, but the overall pattern across the last five games shows a team that creates plenty of chances (74 shots) without the cutting edge to convert them, which explains their bottom of the table position with just five points from nine rounds.
Sarmiento Junin’s most recent outing produced a 1-1 draw at home against Belgrano, snapping a stretch of good form that included wins over Estudiantes Rio Cuarto, Estudiantes LP and Huracan. Despite the draw against Belgrano, Sarmiento remain sixth with 16 points and a positive goal difference of three. Their attack has scored 16 goals in nine league games, the joint highest tally alongside Union de Santa Fe among the mid table pack, and their away form gives them a genuine chance of causing an upset here.
🚨Check out our dedicated Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Racing Club the favourite
- Moneyline Racing Club 1.65 | Sarmiento Junin 5.20
- Draw 3.65
Racing’s odds around 1.65 look generous for a team without a win in their last three, and that price seems built on reputation and home advantage rather than current output. Sarmiento’s 5.20 looks a bit long given their superior form and goal output, which is exactly why the double chance angle appeals more to our team than either side’s outright price.
Possible Starting Lineups
Racing Club possible starting eleven
- GK: Facundo Cambeses
- DF: Gonzalo Escudero, Ezequiel Cannavo, Alfonso Espino, Marcos Rojo
- MF: Matías Kranevitter, Diego Ortegoza, Leonel Pérez, Gastón Lódico
- FW: Matko Miljevic, Tomás Conechny
Racing should stick with their favoured 4-4-2, leaning on Rojo’s experience at the back and the pairing of Miljevic and Conechny up front, the only two forwards to find the net in the last five matches. Ortegoza’s set piece work stands out given his seven free kicks taken recently, so expect Racing to lean on dead ball situations to break Sarmiento down.
Sarmiento Junin possible starting eleven
- GK: Thyago Ayala
- DF: Juan Manuel Insaurralde, Renzo Orihuela, Gastón Arturia, Nicolas Pasquini
- MF: Cristian Zabala, Santiago Salle, Mauricio Martínez, Julian Mavilla, Manuel García
- FW: Junior Marabel
Sava’s 4-2-3-1 shape puts Marabel as the focal point up top, supported by Mavilla and Martínez who both scored in recent weeks. Orihuela’s six interceptions in five games make him key to breaking up Racing’s passing rhythm through the middle, and Sava should trust the same spine that produced three wins in the last five games.
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Sarmiento Junin. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Racing Club’s shot volume and home comfort keep them dangerous, but three straight losses and a conversion rate under 7% make them a shaky favourite. Sarmiento arrive sharper in front of goal and better disciplined, with Marabel carrying real threat. We predict Sarmiento avoid defeat here, and perhaps sneak all three points, making the double chance and BTTS Yes combination the smarter route for this one. To be honest, fading the home side’s price is the clearest angle on the board this round.
