Sofia Quijada
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Quilmes welcome Club Atletico Guemes to Estadio Centenario in a fixture between two sides sitting deep in the Primera Nacional 2026 table, though the gap in current trajectory is wide. Quilmes rank 21st with 30 points from 25 games, while Guemes prop up the entire 36-team division on 17 points. The reverse fixture earlier this season actually went to the visitors, a 2-1 win for Guemes, so history offers Mario Gómez’s side a small psychological cushion despite their dreadful away form since.
Aarón Spetale carries most of the attacking burden for Quilmes, logging 353 minutes across the last five matches without much reward, and his movement in behind will be the main outlet against a shaky Guemes backline. For the visitors, Juan Sanchez Sotelo is the player to watch, the lone forward who has actually found the net recently and someone who needs service if Guemes want to avoid a fourth loss in five.
Hot stat: Club Atletico Guemes have won just once in their last 15 league matches, drawing five and losing nine, the worst run in the entire Primera Nacional and the direct cause of their -18 goal difference, the poorest mark in the division by six goals.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera Nacional 2026, Regular Season (AR) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Centenario, Ciudad de Quilmes |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Quilmes vs Club Atletico Guemes prediction
We predict a Quilmes win, but the straight moneyline at around 1.42 offers little cushion for the risk. Our team leans toward Quilmes on the Asian handicap (-1), a market that better reflects the gulf between a mid-table home side and a team that has scored just 17 goals all season. Quilmes have generated 41 shots and 19 corners across their last five outings compared to Guemes’ 20 shots and 13 corners in the same span, a gap in output that should translate into control even on an off night.
Discipline also favours the hosts tactically: Quilmes picked up 11 yellow cards in their last five games against six for Guemes, suggesting a more physical, higher-tempo approach from the home side, while Guemes’ lower foul count often reflects a team sitting back rather than pressing. That passive setup, paired with a defense that has shipped multiple goals in four of its last five matches, points toward Quilmes generating enough volume to break through, even if their own recent finishing has been blunt.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Quilmes to win by 2+ goals (Asian Handicap -1) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 5.5 |
Team Analysis
Quilmes arrive off a jarring 0-3 defeat to Chacarita Juniors, their heaviest loss in weeks, and it snapped a run that had briefly looked promising after edging San Martin SJ 1-0. In between those results sit back-to-back 0-1 losses to Nueva Chicago and Temperley, plus a narrow 0-1 defeat to Deportivo Maipu. The pattern across all five matches is stark: Quilmes have scored just once in five outings, a single goal against San Martin SJ, and the Chacarita hammering exposed real fragility at the back that Emanuel Tripodi will need to address fast, even against a limited Guemes attack.
Guemes head into this one having lost 0-2 to Midland in their most recent outing, extending a run in which they have failed to score in three of their last five games. Before that, a 0-2 defeat to Atletico Atlanta and a 1-3 loss to Gimnasia y Tiro compounded a miserable stretch, only briefly interrupted by a 1-1 draw with San Martin Tucuman and a goalless stalemate against Atletico Rafaela. The goal drought and the leaky defense, conceding multiple goals in three of five, explain why Guemes sit rock bottom with the joint-worst points total in the league.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Quilmes | Club Atletico Guemes |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 2 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Quilmes vs Club Atletico Guemes stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Quilmes the favourite
- Moneyline Quilmes 1.43 | Club Atletico Guemes 7.38
- Draw 4.15
Sharp pricing from Pinnacle has Quilmes as heavy favourites, matching the bookmakers’ average implied probability of 64% for a home win. The draw at over 4.00 looks generous given Guemes’ current inability to hold onto results even when they avoid conceding first, and their price above 7.00 reflects a squad that has managed only three wins all season. Our team sees value in the home side closing the game out comfortably rather than in a tight, low-scoring draw.
Possible Starting Lineups
Quilmes possible starting eleven
- GK: Gonzalo Marinelli
- DF: Ariel Kippes, Joaquin Novillo, Nicolas Colazo, Martin Vallejos
- MF: A. Batista, Agustín Bolívar, Juan Yangali, A. Bindella, A. Lavezzi
- FW: Aarón Spetale
Marinelli has logged more minutes than Glellel in recent weeks and should keep the gloves in a 4-2-3-1 setup. Kippes anchors the back four after starting all of the last four matches, and Spetale leads the line as the only forward with consistent minutes and shot volume. Bindella’s versatility off the bench in four of five recent games makes him a likely starter in behind Spetale, given Tripodi’s need for more creativity after the Chacarita collapse.
Club Atletico Guemes possible starting eleven
- GK: Leandro Finochietto
- DF: Facundo Melillan, Marcelo Nicolas Benitez, Facundo Rizzi, Walter Juárez
- MF: Milton Gerez, Lucas Guiñazú, Gianluca Pugliese, Axel Pinto
- FW: Juan Sanchez Sotelo, S. Sala
Finochietto is an automatic pick after playing every minute of the last five games, and Melillan and Benitez form the defensive spine with identical playing time. Gómez’s 4-4-2 relies on Guiñazú’s energy in midfield to support the front two, Sanchez Sotelo and Sala, the club’s only players to score in this sample. Both forwards need more service than they have received if Guemes are to avoid a fourth defeat in five matches.
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Quilmes. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Quilmes should have enough at home to end their two-match winless run against a Guemes side that has won once in fifteen outings. The shot and corner numbers back the home side heavily, and Guemes’ inability to score in three of their last five away trips makes a clean sheet for Quilmes plausible, even with their own recent defensive dip. To be honest, the safest route is Quilmes to win combined with under 2.5 total goals, with the Asian handicap -1 offering better value for those wanting a bigger price on the same outcome.
