Liam Duckstein
Two clubs with genuine European pedigree meet at the Azərsun Arena in Baku as Qarabag take on CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League Second Qualifying Round. Qarabag, under the long-serving Qurban Qurbanov, have made this stage almost routine in recent seasons, but the Bulgarian side arrive with four wins from their last six matches and a striker who has been in fine form. Ioannis Pittas has scored three goals across CSKA Sofia’s two most recent Europa League qualifying fixtures, making him the most dangerous figure Qarabag’s defence will face on the night.
For the hosts, Zakaria Sawo stands out immediately. The forward scored twice and added three assists across the last two competitive matches, a return that places him in a different category from the rest of Qarabag’s attacking options right now.
Hot stat: Zakaria Sawo contributed five direct goal involvements (2 goals, 3 assists) in just two matches for Qarabag, making him the most productive player across both squads in recent weeks.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Azərsun Arena, Baku |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia Prediction
Qarabag are the clear home favourites, and the bookmakers reflect that with win probabilities sitting near 59%. Playing at the Azərsun Arena gives them a familiar environment and Qurbanov’s side have historically performed well in these early European rounds. We predict a Qarabag win, with the most value found on the home side in the match result market.
Both teams have shown they can score. CSKA Sofia scored five goals across their last two Europa League qualifiers against Derry City, while Qarabag put six past Vestri in their two-legged tie. That attacking output from both sides points toward goals in this fixture.
Qarabag averaged 22 corner kicks across their last five matches, almost double CSKA Sofia’s 12. That territorial dominance suggests Qarabag will push forward aggressively and create pressure in wide areas. CSKA Sofia picked up four yellow cards in their last five games compared to Qarabag’s zero, which hints at a disciplinary difference that could matter in tight moments. CSKA Sofia’s tendency to foul may hand Qarabag set-piece opportunities in dangerous positions.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Zakaria Sawo to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Qarabag’s last five matches have produced a mixed picture in terms of results but a positive one in terms of attacking output. They beat Vestri 3-0 in both legs of their first qualifying round, with Sawo, Abdellah Zoubir, Renaldo Cephas, and Pedro Bicalho all finding the net across those games. The heavier 6-2 loss to FC Kharkiv Metalist 1925 and the 1-0 defeat to Ferencvaros are the blemishes, though those opponents carried significantly higher quality. Qarabag’s 4-0 win against Tirol earlier in the preparation period also confirmed they can be clinical when given space.
CSKA Sofia come in with genuine momentum. Hristo Yanev’s side defeated Derry City 3-2 and 2-1 in consecutive legs, with Pittas leading the attack and Bruno Jordão contributing from midfield. Their 3-0 win over Marek earlier in July showed defensive solidity alongside attacking efficiency. The 0-0 draw with Slavia Sofia in their most recent domestic outing was the only match where they failed to score, and that came against a side ranked well above average in Bulgarian football. CSKA Sofia have won four of their last six matches and carry real confidence into this trip.
🚨Check out our dedicated Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Qarabag the Favourite
- Moneyline Qarabag 1.58 | CSKA Sofia 5.11
- Draw 3.99
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The odds across major bookmakers tell a consistent story. Qarabag are priced around 1.57 to 1.72 depending on the platform, with Pinnacle offering 1.58, which reflects the 59% win probability assigned by the market. CSKA Sofia at 5.11 on Pinnacle represent a steep ask for a side that has shown quality in qualifying. The draw at 3.99 is the least attractive option given both teams’ recent scoring rates. To be honest, the home win at around 1.57-1.65 offers reasonable value when you factor in Qarabag’s home advantage, their corner dominance, and Sawo’s current form.
Possible Starting Lineups
Qarabag Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Mateusz Kochalski
- DF: Matheus Silva, Bence Várkonyi, Bruno Langa, Badavi Huseynov
- MF: Marko Janković, Pedro Bicalho, Samuel Lobato
- FW: Abdellah Zoubir, Zakaria Sawo, Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski
Mateusz Kochalski has started both recent competitive fixtures and is the first-choice goalkeeper. Matheus Silva and Bence Várkonyi have each played the full 180 minutes across those two matches, making them near-certain starters at the back. Qurbanov looks likely to deploy a 4-3-3 shape, consistent with recent games. Zakaria Sawo is the key man to watch, and pairing him with Zoubir and Malinowski gives Qarabag pace and directness across the front line.
CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Dimitar Evtimov
- DF: David Samuel Custódio Lima, Facundo Rodriguez, Ángelo Martino, Tamimou Ouorou
- MF: Stefano Sensi, Bruno Jordão, Isaac Solet Bomawoko
- FW: Ioannis Pittas, Santiago Godoy, Joel Zwarts
Dimitar Evtimov has started the Europa League qualifying legs and is the clear number one, with Fedor Lapoukhov serving as backup. Facundo Rodriguez and Ángelo Martino each picked up a yellow card in recent games, which is worth watching given the physical nature of European qualifying ties. Stefano Sensi, the former Inter Milan midfielder, brings technical quality to the midfield and has registered an assist in his recent appearances. Hristo Yanev will likely stick with the 4-3-3 system that has served CSKA Sofia well through qualifying. Pittas is the focal point of the attack and the player most capable of punishing any defensive lapse from Qarabag.
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CSKA Sofia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a Qarabag win with both teams scoring. The hosts carry more firepower on paper right now, with Sawo in outstanding form and a corner count that suggests sustained pressure in attacking areas. CSKA Sofia are not here to sit back and absorb, though. Pittas has scored in consecutive qualifying legs and will look to test Kochalski at least once.
The disciplinary gap is notable. Qarabag have collected zero yellow cards across their last five matches, while CSKA Sofia have accumulated four. That suggests Sofia’s defenders may struggle to contain Qarabag’s pace without picking up bookings. Set pieces could decide this tie, and Qarabag’s 22 corners from recent matches give them a platform to exploit.
Our pick is Qarabag to win, with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Zakaria Sawo to score anytime is the standout value bet on the card.
