Sofia Quijada
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Pumas U.N.A.M. and Queretaro meet at the Estadio Olímpico Universitario in Matchday 4 of the Liga MX 2026 Apertura, with both sides sitting level on 6 points after three rounds. The gap between them is razor-thin on the table, but their underlying numbers tell a different story: Pumas carry a significantly stronger year-long record (45% win rate across 33 matches) compared to Queretaro’s 28% across 25. Keylor Navas in goal for Pumas adds a layer of experience that could prove decisive, while Queretaro’s Ali Ávila leads all attackers in this fixture with 4 goals in the last 5 matches and poses a genuine threat on the counter.
Hot stat: Queretaro attempted 78 total shots across their last 5 games, nearly 45% more than Pumas’ 54, yet scored only 6 goals to Pumas’ 8, pointing to a finishing efficiency gap that could matter in a tight home game.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga MX 2026 Apertura, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Pumas U.N.A.M. vs Queretaro Prediction
Pumas are the clear home favorite at odds around 1.82, and the bookmakers’ 51% win probability reflects that reasonably. Playing at the Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Pumas have the structural advantage of a tighter, more accurate passing game: 1,618 pass accuracy units versus Queretaro’s 1,294 in the last 5 matches. Their ability to control possession and build through midfield makes them better suited to dictating tempo at home.
Queretaro’s style is more direct and foul-heavy: 70 total fouls across 5 games versus Pumas’ 64, combined with 16 yellow cards to Pumas’ 9. That disciplinary profile can disrupt Pumas’ rhythm in the first half but tends to open space in transitions, which suits Pumas’ front line. Queretaro also committed 51 free kicks conceded versus Pumas’ 37, giving Pumas set-piece opportunities that Navas and the experienced squad can capitalize on.
Both teams have shown they can score freely in this tournament: Pumas put 7 past opponents in 3 Liga MX games, Queretaro scored 5. With both sides attacking and Queretaro’s defensive discipline questionable given their yellow card rate, both teams scoring is a strong lean. We predict a Pumas win with both teams getting on the scoresheet.
- Best value bet: Pumas U.N.A.M. to win
- Both teams to score: Yes
- Over 2.5 goals
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Queretaro to receive 3+ yellow cards |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Pumas have had a demanding recent schedule that included friendlies or cup clashes against MLS opposition. Their last match ended in a 3-4 loss to Columbus Crew, and before that they fell 0-2 to FC Cincinnati and 0-3 to Charlotte. Those results dragged their last-30-days record to 2 wins and 4 losses. Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior leads the attack with 3 goals in 5 games and Robert Morales adds 1 goal and 3 assists, making them the most productive duo in recent outings. Positively, Pumas did beat Juarez 5-1 and Toluca 2-1 in Liga MX, showing they can perform when the competition is domestic.
Queretaro’s recent form mirrors Pumas’ in record (2 wins, 4 losses in 30 days) but the context differs. They lost 4-6 to Los Angeles and 0-3 to Seattle Sounders in their most recent outings, both heavy defeats against MLS sides. Their Liga MX results are more encouraging: wins over UANL Tigres (3-2) and Pachuca (2-1) in the previous Apertura rounds. Santiago Homenchenko has been their most active midfielder with 1 goal and 1 assist, and Ali Ávila leads the line with 4 goals across 5 games. The concern is their defensive exposure: they conceded 11 goals in their last 3 matches combined.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Pumas U.N.A.M. | Queretaro |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 4 |
The last four meetings between these sides produced 11 goals total for Pumas and 4 for Queretaro, with Pumas winning three of the four fixtures. The most recent clash ended 1-1 in the 2026 Clausura, but Pumas won 2-0 in the 2025 Apertura and 2-0 again in the 2024 Apertura. Queretaro’s only win came in the 2025 Clausura (3-2), when they were heavy underdogs at 28% probability.
🚨Check out our dedicated Pumas U.N.A.M. vs Queretaro stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Pumas U.N.A.M. the Favourite
- Moneyline Pumas U.N.A.M. 1.82 | Queretaro 4.10
- Draw 3.55
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The moneyline on Pumas at 1.82 (Stake, BCGame, Roobet) represents fair value given their home advantage, stronger passing structure, and superior head-to-head record. Pinnacle sits highest at 1.84, making it the sharpest line available. Queretaro at 4.10 to 4.36 reflects their underdog status accurately, and the draw at 3.55 to 3.75 is not particularly attractive given how open both teams have been defensively. The BTTS market is worth targeting given both sides’ recent tendency to concede.
Possible Starting Lineups
Pumas U.N.A.M. Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Keylor Navas
- DF: Nathanael Ananias, Álvaro Angulo, Rubén Duarte, Ángel Azuaje
- MF: Victor Arteaga, Pedro Vite, Rodrigo López, Adalberto Carrasquilla
- FW: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior, Robert Morales
Pumas are expected to line up in their preferred 4-2-3-1 shape under Esteban Solari. Keylor Navas is the undisputed starter and his 12 saves in 5 games show he remains active and sharp. Nathanael Ananias anchors the back line with the most passes among defenders. In midfield, Victor Arteaga stands out with 9 interceptions and 1 goal, while Rodrigo López provides the creative link with 1 assist and strong passing volume. Up front, Olávio leads the scoring with 3 goals and Robert Morales offers the assist threat, having registered 3 in 4 appearances.
Queretaro Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Guillermo Allison
- DF: Diego Reyes, Lucas Abascia, Daniel Parra, Paulo Victor
- MF: Santiago Homenchenko, Carlo Garcia, Enzo Giménez, Erik Duenas
- FW: Ali Ávila, Mateo Coronel
Queretaro will likely mirror with a 4-2-3-1 under Esteban González. Guillermo Allison starts in goal with 14 saves across 5 games. The defensive four features Lucas Abascia and Daniel Parra, both of whom have accumulated 3 and 2 yellow cards respectively, making them booking risks against Pumas’ attacking movement. Santiago Homenchenko is the engine in midfield with 18 shots, 1 goal, and 1 assist. Ali Ávila leads the line with 4 goals in 5 games and 16 total shots, making him the primary danger man Pumas must contain.
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Pumas U.N.A.M.. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a Pumas U.N.A.M. win with both teams scoring. The home side’s passing precision, set-piece opportunities generated by Queretaro’s foul-heavy defending, and a head-to-head record that heavily favors Pumas all point in one direction. Queretaro’s Ali Ávila is dangerous enough to get on the scoresheet, which makes the clean sheet unlikely for either side. A 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline for Pumas looks the most probable outcome, and at 1.82 on the moneyline, Pumas represent the strongest single-bet option on the card.
