Portugal (w) vs Italy (w) Prediction: 07.07.2025 UEFA European Women's Championship

The Group B showdown at Brann Stadion in Bergen on July 7, 2025, pits Portugal (w) against Italy (w) in a pivotal UEFA European Women’s Championship encounter. With both sides looking to boost their progression hopes, Portugal is eager to respond after a heavy defeat to Spain, while Italy aims to maintain their momentum after a convincing win over Belgium. This match not only serves as an opportunity for redemption and confirmation but also showcases contrasting play styles and strategic approaches, promising a fascinating tactical battle between Francisco Neto’s and Milena Bertolini’s evolving squads.

Keep a close eye on Jessica Silva’s attacking movement for Portugal, alongside Italy’s dynamic midfielder Arianna Caruso, whose knack for arriving late in the box and dictating the midfield tempo proved decisive in the opener. One notable trend: Italy attempted 17 total shots in their last match against Belgium, underlining their attacking intent and technical edge a sharp contrast to Portugal’s struggles in creating clear-cut opportunities.

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Portugal (w) vs Italy (w) prediction

Given Portugal’s recent difficulties in both attack and defense having conceded five to Spain and failing to score in their last two matches Italy appears the superior side in form and execution. With Italy coming off a disciplined 1-0 victory over Belgium, Bertolini’s squad looks organized in defense (posting five corners and limiting Belgium to just a handful of chances) and possesses the midfield creativity to unlock Portugal’s rearguard.

Portugal’s 5-4-1 formation has not translated into defensive solidity, as they’ve leaked goals and struggled to advance the ball out of midfield. Italy, operating primarily in a 4-4-1-1 setup, mixed pressing and structured build-up, which helped them create more shots on target and manage the game tempo. Both sides show a penchant for physicality Italy accumulated three yellow cards and eight fouls against Belgium, while Portugal committed five fouls but offered less offensive threat. Expect Italy’s superior possession game (268 passes, 17 total shots) to dominate, and their creative core to make the difference.

Team Analysis

Portugal (w) enters the match on the back of a demoralizing 0-5 loss to Spain, following a goalless draw with Nigeria. Their inability to put shots on target only 7 total shots in the last match speaks to struggles in chance creation. Despite switching between midfield options like Tatiana Pinto and Fatima Pinto, linking midfield to attack has been a recurring challenge. Defensively, the 5-4-1 shape has yet to provide the expected solidity, conceding a combined 15 goals in their last three European opponents (Spain, Belgium, and England). Francisco Neto must instill greater discipline if Portugal is to compete.

Italy (w) meanwhile, is riding high after their 1-0 victory over Belgium, following a solid spring campaign that included wins over Denmark and Wales and a narrow defeat to Sweden. Their match against Belgium featured an organized backline, with Salvai and Linari anchoring the defense and Caruso scoring the lone goal. Italy’s tactical flexibility, shifting from a compact 4-4-1-1 to a more aggressive approach as needed, kept Belgium pinned in their own half for much of the encounter. Bertolini’s emphasis on ball retention and pushing wide players like Lisa Boattin and Lucia Di Guglielmo forward in transition remains central to Italy’s progress on the continental stage.

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🚨Read our full Portugal (w) vs Italy (w) stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Italy (w) the favourite

• Moneyline Portugal (w) 4.90 | Italy (w) 1.67
• Draw 3.98
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.01 | Under 2.5 1.78
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.18 | No 1.62

As the odds suggest, Italy (w) is a clear favorite with a probability of victory above 55 percent, according to leading bookmakers. Portugal’s long odds stem from both their poor recent results and limited goal-scoring threat. Italy’s tighter defense and creative midfield further tilt the scales. While draws are possible in tournament football, expect Italy’s superior quality and form to shine through against a struggling Portugal side. For those seeking value, Italy (w) -1 Asian Handicap and Under 2.5 are particularly appealing, reflecting the Italians’ typical game management and Portugal’s attacking limitations.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Portugal is expected to line up in their familiar 5-4-1, prioritizing defensive stability with Pereira in goal, protected by experienced defenders like Carole Costa and Diana Gomes. The midfield quartet revolves around energetic players such as Tatiana Pinto and Andreia Jacinto. Up front, Jessica Silva brings mobility and technical skill, hoping to capitalize on counter-attacks, though support from midfield will be crucial for her effectiveness.

Italy looks set to deploy a 4-4-1-1, built on continuity from their opening win. Giuliani continues in goal with Salvai and Linari forming a well-drilled central pairing. In midfield, playmaker Caruso will be partnered by Giugliano and Severini, complemented by Cantore’s wide runs. Up front, veteran Girelli leads the line, ably supported by Bonansea operating in a free role. This lineup offers balance, pressing power, and the creative spark needed against Portugal’s deep block.

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My take on the Match

Based on the available data, recent form, and tactical trends, my pick for this encounter is an Italy win, potentially covering the -1 Asian Handicap. Portugal’s defensive frailties and difficulty generating high-quality chances render them underdogs here. Italy’s composure, experience, and attacking cohesion led by Caruso and Girelli should allow them to dictate the tempo from midfield, keep pressure on the Portuguese backline, and eventually break through. I expect a professional, disciplined performance from Milena Bertolini’s team, securing three points and strengthening their position in Group B.

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