Portugal Women vs Belgium Women Prediction: 11.07.2025 UEFA European Women's Championship

As the curtain falls on the Group B stage of the UEFA European Women’s Championship 2025, Portugal Women face Belgium Women at Brann Stadion in Bergen. Both teams find themselves in urgent need of points after lackluster starts, and this match promises to be a crucial decider for their tournament fate. Not only is pride on the line, but with both squads demonstrating defensive frailties and flashes of individual brilliance, fans can expect a tightly-contested and tactically engaging clash.

Two players warrant close attention in this showdown. For Portugal, center-back Diana Gomes has been instrumental, notching the team’s only goal across their group fixtures and anchoring a defense tested by Europe’s elite. On Belgium’s side, Tessa Wullaert stands out with her creative engine — she has registered 2 assists in two matches and remains the pivotal figure orchestrating attacks and set pieces.

Hot stat: Portugal are still winless in their last nine competitive games, highlighting a concerning trend in closing out matches, while Belgium have conceded 7 goals in their group, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities that could define this match.

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Portugal Women vs Belgium Women Prediction

Given the recent form, match context, and tactical setups, the best value bet here is a Portugal Women win, possibly by a narrow margin. Portugal have shown more defensive organization in midfield despite being battered by Spain, and their tendencies to control possession (629 passes over their last two matches) could be decisive. Meanwhile, Belgium’s back line has been porous, shipping 7 goals in group play, which suggests Portugal’s attack, modest as it is, will find opportunities. Still, expect a tight affair as neither side has displayed consistent attacking prowess.

Discipline could play a pivotal role: Portugal have accrued just one yellow card and focused on a methodical passing approach, but their 18 fouls indicate pressure points in midfield. Belgium, with three yellow cards and 15 fouls, show a more direct style but risk disruptions from suspensions. Both teams have averaged 5 corners in their last five matches, suggesting set pieces may offer scoring opportunities. Ultimately, Portugal’s structure and marginally superior technical play make them favorites for a nervy but vital win.

Team Analysis

Portugal Women’s recent run highlights a resilience to bounce back from adversity. Their 1-1 draw versus Italy (w) provided glimpses of their passing game despite conceding early control, and Diana Gomes’ goal confirmed their threat from set pieces. With 12 total shots across their previous two games, Portugal have shown the ability to work openings, but a 0-5 defeat to Spain (w) underlined limits when exposed to high pressing. Still, Francisco Neto’s 4-3-3 demonstrates balance, and improved defensive positioning should serve them well in this fixture.

Belgium Women, managed by Ives Serneels, arrive at this match under noticeable pressure after defeats to both Spain (2-6) and Italy (0-1). Their defense has conceded at least two goals in six of their last eight matches, despite moments of efficiency on the counter. Notably, Tessa Wullaert’s versatility and Janice Cayman’s composure have kept Belgium competitive in midfield, but disjointed play at the back and only two goals scored across the group signal a side struggling to translate control to results. A switch to a more compact 5-3-2 could offer defensive stability, but the lack of finishing quality remains their Achilles’ heel.

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🚨Read our full Portugal (w) vs Belgium (w) stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Portugal the favourite

• Moneyline Portugal (w) 1.84 | Belgium (w) 3.94
• Draw 3.88
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.16 | Under 2.5 1.76
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.03 | No 1.77

Portugal (w) are priced as favorites, primarily due to a marginally better group stage showing and historical head-to-heads. Bookmakers recognize Belgium’s potential to surprise, but their porous defense influences high odds for a clean sheet. The under on total goals is favored, reflecting both team’s attacking challenges. BTTS tilts toward “No,” matching the attacking stats and recent results for each squad.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Portugal (w) possible starting eleven

Portugal are expected to stick with their tried and tested 4-3-3, balancing defensive security with offensive options. Diana Gomes not only marshals the backline but also offers a set-piece threat. In midfield, Fatima Pinto brings energy and control, while Andreia Norton looks to link play with the front trio. Up top, Jessica Silva’s movement on the flank could be a difference-maker. Expect Francisca Nazareth Sousa to operate as a false nine, creating overloads in midfield and space out wide.

Belgium (w) possible starting eleven

Belgium are likely to continue with their pragmatic 5-3-2, providing extra cover at the back but relying on transition play and Tessa Wullaert’s creativity in midfield. Sari Kees and Amber Tysiak will be tasked with nullifying aerial threats, especially from Portugal’s set pieces. Hannah Eurlings provides a direct threat up front, while Lisa Lichtfus remains their most reliable option between the posts. The key battle will be Belgium’s ability to transition quickly from defense to attack, leveraging the width provided by Cayman and Deloose.

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My take on the Match

The stakes could not be higher. For Portugal Women, this must-win scenario suits their measured, tactical style—patience in buildup, reliance on key midfielders and a penchant for set pieces through Diana Gomes. Belgium Women, chasing their first points and showing a tactically flexible approach, may try to unsettle the rhythm with counterattacks and direct play. My main pick is a Portugal (w) win, likely under 2.5 total goals; expect a calculated, nervy contest with few clear-cut chances but decisive moments from set plays or transitional errors. The team that better manages midfield battles and limits costly fouls should progress, but Portugal’s poise gives them the decisive edge. This is where experience and discipline will tell.

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