Rafael Nogueira
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Ponte Preta host Sao Bernardo at the Moisés Lucarelli in what is a relegation-zone fixture for the home side. Ponte Preta sit bottom of the Série B table with just 10 points from 21 games, having conceded 43 goals, while Sao Bernardo occupy 16th place with 24 points. Sao Bernardo have already beaten Ponte Preta 3-0 in the reverse fixture this season, and the bookmakers give the visitors a 66% win probability here.
Sao Bernardo’s Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes leads the attack with 3 goals in the last 5 matches and 9 shots in that span, making him the most dangerous forward on the pitch. For Sao Bernardo’s engine room, Romisson has registered 3 assists across 5 appearances, consistently creating chances from midfield. Ponte Preta’s lack of a comparable creative or clinical presence is stark by comparison.
Hot stat: Ponte Preta have scored just 1 goal across their last 5 matches while conceding heavily, shipping 12 goals in that run, including a 0-6 defeat to Vila Nova.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:30 CEST |
Ponte Preta vs Sao Bernardo Prediction
Sao Bernardo are the clear pick here. They have scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches compared to Ponte Preta’s 1, and their shot volume (70 vs 44) shows a team that generates far more attacking threat. Ponte Preta have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and have not won in 30 days. Sao Bernardo’s win in the reverse fixture by 3 goals adds further weight. We predict a Sao Bernardo win, and given Ponte Preta’s defensive fragility, the away side scoring over 1.5 goals is a strong value angle.
Ponte Preta commit 78 fouls in 5 matches to Sao Bernardo’s 63, suggesting a side that struggles to contain opponents without resorting to foul play. Ponte Preta also carry 11 yellow cards in that window versus just 4 for Sao Bernardo, which creates a risk of disruption in their defensive shape. Sao Bernardo’s superior pass accuracy (1,882 out of 2,227 passes completed) reflects a composed, possession-oriented side that will be comfortable dictating tempo at the Moisés Lucarelli. Ponte Preta’s 880 accurate passes from 1,279 attempted tells a different story, a team that struggles to build play and is likely to cede control in midfield.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Sao Bernardo to win & Over 1.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Ponte Preta’s recent form is alarming. Under Gilson Kleina, the club has gone winless across their last 5 league outings, with 4 defeats and 1 draw. They were beaten 0-2 by both America MG and Avai, then suffered a humiliating 0-6 loss to Vila Nova. A 1-1 draw at Nautico briefly interrupted the slide, but a 0-2 defeat to Ceara confirmed the pattern. They have scored just once in those 5 games and their defensive numbers are the worst in the division, having conceded 43 goals in 21 matches total. With only 2 wins all season, their situation is desperate.
Sao Bernardo’s recent run under Vinícius Bergantin is more mixed but shows greater capability. They won 3-1 against Operario PR in their most recent home fixture, demonstrating clinical finishing when the opportunity arises. A 1-1 draw against both Nautico and Fortaleza, plus a 1-2 defeat to Goias, round out a 5-match stretch of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their season record of 10 wins from 37 matches, a 27% win rate, places them comfortably ahead of Ponte Preta’s 10% win rate. Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes’s 3 goals in the last 5 matches make him the standout performer.
🚨Check out our dedicated Ponte Preta vs Sao Bernardo stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Sao Bernardo the Favourite
- Moneyline Ponte Preta 7.50 | Sao Bernardo 1.41
- Draw 4.20
Sao Bernardo’s odds of around 1.38-1.42 across most books reflect their genuine superiority in this fixture. Ponte Preta at 7.00-8.00 is not a price worth chasing given their form and defensive record. The draw at 4.20 is similarly unattractive, as Ponte Preta have shown little ability to hold teams. Sao Bernardo at odds around 1.40 offers limited upside but represents the safest route, and pairing it with a “Sao Bernardo to win & Over 1.5 goals” market improves value without straying into reckless territory.
Possible Starting Lineups
Ponte Preta Possible Starting Eleven
- DF: Lucas Cunha, Diego
- MF: Elvis, André da Silva Lima, Murilo Henrique Cavalcante
- FW: David da Hora
Ponte Preta’s available squad data is limited, but André da Silva Lima has been the most consistent midfield presence with 4 appearances and 158 passes. David da Hora leads the forward line with 4 appearances and 1 assist, though his goal return is zero. Kleina has favoured a 4-2-3-1 shape, but the personnel available make it difficult to see where a goal is going to come from. LUCAS CUNHA anchors the defence and is one of the more reliable figures in the backline.
Sao Bernardo Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Alex Alves
- DF: Jemerson, Pará, Mário Sérgio Valerio
- MF: Romisson, Foguinho, Hyoran, Lucas Eduardo Lima da Silva
- FW: Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes, Pedro Vitor Ferreira da Silva, Felipe Garcia
Bergantin deploys a 4-2-3-1 system and has a settled squad. Jemerson is the defensive anchor with 301 passes and 450 minutes played across 5 matches, providing composure from the back. Romisson’s 3 assists and Hyoran’s 10 shots make the midfield unit genuinely threatening. Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes is the key man up front with 3 goals in 5 games and Pedro Vitor Ferreira da Silva adds a secondary goal threat with 1 goal from 10 shots. Alex Alves starts in goal with 12 saves recorded, showing he is active despite playing for the better side.
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Ponte Preta. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Sao Bernardo win this match. Ponte Preta are statistically the worst team in the Série B this season, with a -28 goal difference, a 10% win rate, and just 1 goal scored in their last 5 games. Sao Bernardo have already beaten them 3-0 this season and carry more quality in every department, from pass accuracy to shot creation to goal threat. We predict a Sao Bernardo victory, with Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes the most likely to get on the scoresheet. Backing Sao Bernardo to win and both teams not to score reflects the reality of Ponte Preta’s attacking poverty.
