Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino Prediction: 23 June 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

Ponte Preta host Novorizontino at Moisés Lucarelli in Campinas in a mid-table Série B clash that carries real stakes for both sides. Ponte Preta sit 15th with 7 points from 6 games, while Novorizontino occupy 11th with the same points tally but a better goal difference. Novorizontino striker Robson has scored 3 goals in 4 appearances this season and is the most dangerous attacker on the pitch, while Ponte Preta’s Elvis has contributed a goal and an assist from midfield and will be key to unlocking any space behind the visiting defense. A standout stat: Ponte Preta have earned just 3 wins in 16 matches this year, a 19% win rate that underlines their struggle for consistency at home.

Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino Prediction

Novorizontino are the clear value pick here. They have won 4 of their last 8 matches, lost just once in that stretch, and carry a 52% win rate across 25 games this year. Ponte Preta, by contrast, have scored only 3 goals in their last 5 matches and are yet to win at home in this Série B campaign. The bookmakers agree, pricing Novorizontino as heavy favorites, and the underlying numbers support that view.

In terms of style, Ponte Preta commit 60 fouls and collect 11 yellow cards across 5 matches, making them one of the dirtier sides in the division. That level of fouling tends to disrupt rhythm and invite set-piece danger. Novorizontino, with 52 fouls and only 7 yellows, play a more disciplined game, and their 938 accurate passes against Ponte Preta’s 863 shows a clear edge in ball retention. Their superior passing accuracy should allow them to control tempo and exploit Ponte Preta’s disorganized defensive shape, which has already conceded 6 goals in 6 league games.

• We predict Novorizontino to win this match.
• We lean toward Under 2.5 goals, given Ponte Preta’s attacking output of just 35 shots across 5 games.
• Both Teams to Score: No, with Ponte Preta’s attack struggling to create meaningful chances.
• Corners: Under 9.5, as both teams average relatively modest corner counts across recent matches.

Team Analysis

Ponte Preta’s last 5 league outings have produced zero goals scored across all five results, with draws against Juventude (0-0), Cuiaba (0-0), Botafogo SP (0-0), CRB (0-0), and Londrina PR (0-0). Their form reads LLLDLLLWLLDLLWW from left to right, with the two recent wins doing little to mask a side that has been blanked repeatedly. The attacking line featuring Jonathan Cafú and David da Hora has generated only 3 goals across these 5 games combined, with 4 red cards also disrupting their defensive structure. Sergio Palacios has picked up a red card, and William Pottker carries 2 yellows across just 2 appearances, which raises discipline concerns if Novorizontino press high and force mistakes.

Novorizontino arrive in better shape. Their most recent match against Nautico ended in a draw, but prior to that they beat Goias and recorded a 2-2 draw with Chapecoense where Robson scored. Their form line of WLLWDLDWDDWWDWL shows a team that rarely collapses. Matheus Henrique has contributed a goal and 11 shots across 4 games from midfield, and Juninho has added 2 goals in 4 appearances, giving Enderson Moreira multiple goal threats beyond Robson. Goalkeeper Jordi has made 12 saves across 4 matches, suggesting Novorizontino’s defense is tested but holds firm.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

Ponte Preta and Novorizontino have met three times recently, with Ponte Preta winning two of those encounters. Their most recent meeting in the 2025 Campeonato Paulista ended 1-0 to Ponte Preta, and in the 2024 Série B they split the two legs, with Novorizontino winning 2-1 away and Ponte Preta winning 1-0 at home. The head-to-head record is close, but Novorizontino’s current form and squad depth make them the more reliable pick for this fixture.

🚨Check out our dedicated Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Novorizontino the Favourite

• Moneyline Ponte Preta 5.05 | Novorizontino 1.72
• Draw 3.30

The Bovada line of 1.72 on Novorizontino is reasonable given their form and the context of this match. Ponte Preta at 5.05 reflects their poor season record and goalless streak accurately. The draw at 3.30 is tempting given the 0-0 results Ponte Preta keep accumulating, but Novorizontino’s attacking output, 9 goals and 58 shots in 5 matches, suggests they have enough quality to break through. To be honest, the 1.72 on Novorizontino represents decent value given the gap in quality between these two sides right now.

Possible Starting Lineups

Ponte Preta Possible Starting Eleven

Márcio Zanardi has been consistent with his 4-2-3-1 shape, and this lineup reflects the players with the most appearances across the last 5 matches. Diogo Silva is the clear first-choice goalkeeper with 21 saves across 4 games. Elvis is the player to watch in midfield, providing both a goal and an assist and covering ground effectively. Sergio Palacios carries a red card from recent games and is a disciplinary risk at right back. William Pottker, despite just 2 appearances, has shown attacking intent with 6 shots and could push for a start up front.

Novorizontino Possible Starting Eleven

Enderson Moreira also favors 4-2-3-1, and the players listed here are those with consistent minutes across the last 5 matches. Robson is the standout, with 3 goals and 9 shots in 4 games, and he remains the primary goal threat. Matheus Henrique adds energy and shooting volume from midfield with 11 shots and a goal. Maykon Kesley is a reliable presence at right back with 360 minutes played and 8 free kicks won. Patrick Marcos mirrors that consistency on the opposite flank. Jordi in goal has been solid with 12 saves and will need to be alert only if Ponte Preta find any rhythm from set pieces.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Novorizontino are the pick for this match. Their 52% win rate across 25 games this season, their disciplined pressing style, and a three-pronged attack featuring Robson, Juninho, and Matheus Henrique give them a clear edge over a Ponte Preta side that has scored just 3 goals in 5 matches. Ponte Preta’s foul-heavy approach, 60 fouls and 4 red cards in 5 games, will leave gaps that Novorizontino’s patient ball movement can exploit. We predict a narrow Novorizontino win, with Under 2.5 goals as the secondary play given Ponte Preta’s offensive output, perhaps the lowest in the Série B this season.

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