Rafael Nogueira
Ponte Preta host Cuiaba at Moisés Lucarelli in Campinas in a relegation-zone battle neither side can afford to lose. Both clubs sit in the bottom four of the Série B table, with Ponte Preta on 8 points and Cuiaba just ahead on 13. The hosts have conceded 20 goals in 11 league matches, the joint-worst defensive record in the division, making this a fixture where Cuiaba’s ultra-cautious approach, seven draws in eleven games, could prove decisive. Elvis is the player to watch for Ponte Preta, contributing a goal and an assist across his last three appearances and operating as the creative hub in the 4-2-3-1 shape. For Cuiaba, João Basso stands out at the back, recording 141 passes and 5 interceptions in three games, anchoring a defense that has conceded just 5 goals all season.
Hot stat: Cuiaba have drawn 7 of their 11 league matches this season, and in their last five games they have scored just 2 goals while keeping four clean sheets. Expect low scoring.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas, Brazil |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
Ponte Preta vs Cuiaba Prediction
Cuiaba are the more consistent side right now. They are unbeaten in three of their last five matches and have won their most recent fixture 2-0 against CRB. Ponte Preta, on the other hand, have won zero of their last five games, losing four and drawing one. The hosts have also conceded 14 goals across those five matches, which is alarming at home.
We predict Cuiaba to win or draw this match. The draw market is particularly attractive given Cuiaba’s tendency to grind out results, but their momentum after the CRB win gives them the edge to take all three points. The bookmakers’ 40% win probability for Cuiaba at odds around 2.39-2.40 represents genuine value, especially with Ponte Preta’s defensive collapse in recent weeks.
Cuiaba average 47 fouls per five games compared to Ponte Preta’s 42, and Ponte Preta have collected 12 yellow cards to Cuiaba’s 7. This suggests Ponte Preta play with more desperation and aggression, which often leads to conceding dangerous set-piece situations. Cuiaba’s 36 free kicks earned in the same period adds another avenue for them to threaten. Ponte Preta hold 71.4% pass accuracy compared to Cuiaba’s 78.8%, reflecting a more controlled and structured away side. That control could stifle Ponte Preta’s limited attacking output, three goals in five games, and keep this match tight.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Cuiaba Double Chance (Draw or Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Ponte Preta have been in freefall. Coach Edson’s side lost 0-3 to Sao Bernardo, 1-3 to Sport Recife, and 1-4 to Londrina PR before being beaten 2-4 by CRB. Their only point in the last five came from a 0-0 draw with Botafogo SP. The defense has been the core problem, shipping 14 goals in five matches against opponents ranging from mid-table to fellow strugglers. Offensively, only Elvis and David da Hora have contributed, with one goal each. The squad lacks depth and confidence, and playing at home has not provided the expected boost given their home record.
Cuiaba have been far more solid under Eduardo Barros. Their last five games include a 1-1 draw with Criciuma, back-to-back goalless draws against Athletic Club and Novorizontino, a 0-1 defeat to Nautico, and then a confident 2-0 win over CRB. They have kept three clean sheets in five games, scoring only twice, but their defensive organization is clearly a priority. João Pedro Vilardi Pinto grabbed a goal in that run and Rodrigo Antonio Rodrigues has been active in attack with 8 shots across three games. The system is built to be hard to break down, and it has worked consistently.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Ponte Preta | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
| Total shots | 33 | 43 |
| Free kicks | 39 | 36 |
| Corner kicks | 21 | 16 |
| Total fouls | 42 | 47 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 71.4% | 78.8% |
| Interceptions | 26 | 21 |
| Offsides | 4 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Ponte Preta vs Cuiaba stats page for more info.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Cuiaba the Favourite
- Moneyline Ponte Preta 3.50 | Cuiaba 2.39
- Draw 2.65
The odds on Cuiaba at 2.39 reflect their stronger recent form, but considering they have drawn 7 of 11 league games, the draw at 2.65 also holds value. Ponte Preta at 3.50 is a fair price given their current form, but backing them to win outright is hard to justify. The Cuiaba double chance, covering both a draw and a Cuiaba win, is the most sensible entry point for this match. Bettors comfortable with lower returns can also look at Under 2.5 goals given both teams’ scoring records.
Possible Starting Lineups
Ponte Preta Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Diogo Silva
- DF: Danilo Barcelos, David Braz, Marcio Silva, Weverton
- MF: Elvis, LUCAS CUNHA, Léo Gomes
- FW: David da Hora, William Pottker, Jonathan Cafú
Ponte Preta are likely to line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1, with Diogo Silva in goal after three appearances. Danilo Barcelos and Marcio Silva provide the most experience at the back. Elvis is the key man in midfield, the only player with both a goal and an assist in the last five games. David da Hora leads the attacking line and will need support from Pottker and Cafú on the flanks to put any pressure on Cuiaba’s organized defense. The two red cards collected in the last five games are a concern and Edson may emphasize discipline.
Cuiaba Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Marcelo Carne
- DF: Marlon, João Basso, Gabriel Knesowitsch, Railan Ferreira
- MF: Raul Lô Gonçalves, João Pedro Vilardi Pinto, Nino Paraíba
- FW: Yamil Asad, Rodrigo Antonio Rodrigues, João Carlos
Cuiaba deploy a 4-3-3 with Marcelo Carne as the established starter, accumulating 8 saves over three matches. Marlon and João Basso are the pillars of the defense, with Basso particularly impressive in distribution, 141 passes and 119 accurate. Raul Lô Gonçalves covers ground effectively in midfield with 124 passes and 3 interceptions. Rodrigo Antonio Rodrigues leads the press up front with 8 total shots and 8 fouls drawn, making him a constant irritant for opposing defenders. Eduardo Barros will look to control the midfield and hit on the counter.
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Cuiaba. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
The numbers tell a clear story here. Ponte Preta have not won in five matches, concede freely, and carry two red cards in recent games. Cuiaba are not a spectacular side, but they defend well, press with purpose through Rodrigo Antonio Rodrigues, and have just beaten CRB with a clean sheet. Their pass accuracy of 78.8% versus Ponte Preta’s 71.4% suggests they will control large portions of this match.
We predict a Cuiaba win or draw, with Under 2.5 goals as the strongest market. To be honest, a 1-0 or 0-0 scoreline fits everything we know about both teams right now. Cuiaba’s double chance at around 1.59-1.87 depending on the bookmaker is the value play, and pairing it with Under 2.5 goals makes for a well-reasoned combination bet.
