Rafael Nogueira
Criciuma sit top of the Série B table with 19 points from 13 games and arrive at Moisés Lucarelli as clear favourites. Ponte Preta, sitting 17th with just 3 wins in 23 league outings this year, have failed to score in their last two matches and conceded 11 goals in their last five.
The gap in form is stark. Criciuma’s attack has been led in part by Rómulo Otero, who already has a goal and leads the squad in shots across recent appearances, while Waguininho adds a direct threat up front with 6 offsides in 149 minutes, a sign of constant movement in behind. For Ponte Preta, Elvis in midfield is one of the few players carrying any creative burden, though his output has been minimal against higher-quality opposition.
Hot stat: Criciuma have taken 27 shots across their last single tracked match compared to Ponte Preta’s 11, and their pass accuracy total of 573 out of 713 dwarfs Ponte Preta’s 193 out of 252, reflecting a dominant possession-based style that punishes sides who struggle to hold shape.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:00 CEST |
Ponte Preta vs Criciuma Prediction
Criciuma to win is the standout call here. They are the only team in the top half of the standings with a genuine claim to the title race, their last five results show four wins and a draw in league play, and they are travelling to a Ponte Preta side that has lost four of their last five and has not scored in two straight games. The 1.55–1.62 range on Criciuma across bookmakers reflects genuine probability, and we predict a Criciuma win with confidence.
Ponte Preta commit fouls frequently, averaging 21 in a single match window, while Criciuma rack up 28, meaning this match will see plenty of set-piece situations. Criciuma’s 9 corner kicks versus Ponte Preta’s 4 in the last tracked match points to their territorial dominance. Ponte Preta’s yellow card count of 3 versus Criciuma’s 6 suggests the visitors play with more aggression, which can disrupt the hosts’ already fragile structure. With Ponte Preta’s pass accuracy sitting so low, they are likely to spend long stretches defending and struggling to build any sustained pressure.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Criciuma to win to nil |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Ponte Preta’s recent run is alarming. Their last five results read: W, L, L, D, L, L, L, L, D, L, L reading from right to left in the form string, and their two most recent matches produced a 0-2 defeat to Fortaleza and a 0-0 draw with Botafogo SP before that. In the 0-2 loss to Fortaleza, they managed just 11 shots with no goals and only 4 corners. Coach Márcio Zanardi has a squad that lacks the depth to compete for three points against a top-half side. Their goal difference of -6 on the season, with only 5 goals scored in 12 games, is a damning indicator.
Criciuma have been the most consistent side in the division. Their 1-0 win over Sport Recife in their last outing was the fifth time in their last six matches they have either won or drawn. Eduardo Baptista has the team well-organised defensively, conceding just 7 goals in 13 games, and they have shown the ability to grind out results with discipline. The 1-0 wins over Sport Recife and Sao Bernardo in their last two matches show a team that does not need to be spectacular to get results. Their interception count of 21 in the tracked data reflects a high defensive work rate, and with 9 corners in recent play, they generate consistent pressure from wide areas.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Ponte Preta | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 11 | 27 |
| Free kicks | 16 | 25 |
| Corner kicks | 4 | 9 |
| Total fouls | 21 | 28 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 77% | 80% |
| Interceptions | 3 | 21 |
🚨 Check out our dedicated Ponte Preta vs Criciuma stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Criciuma the Favourite
- Moneyline Ponte Preta 6.22 (Pinnacle) | Criciuma 1.55 (Cloudbet/Rocketplay)
- Draw 3.40–3.68
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — approx. 2.10 | Under 2.5 — approx. 1.72
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — approx. 2.20 | No — approx. 1.65
The Criciuma odds in the 1.55–1.62 range are fair given the form gap. Ponte Preta at 6.00+ is a speculative punt at best, given they are winless in their last two and have not scored in those games. The draw at 3.60 is not attractive either, as Criciuma have only drawn once in their last five league matches. We see value in the Criciuma win and in the “No” on BTTS given Ponte Preta’s scoring drought.
Possible Starting Lineups
Ponte Preta Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Kevyson
- DF: Danilo Barcelos, LUCAS CUNHA, Thalys, Sergio Palacios, Marcio Silva
- MF: Elvis
- FW: Jonathan Cafú, David da Hora, Rodrigo Araújo da Silva Filho, Diego
Ponte Preta have been deploying a 3-4-3 shape, and Zanardi is likely to stick with it here. Danilo Barcelos and Sergio Palacios provide cover on the flanks in the wing-back roles, while Elvis is the primary creative outlet in midfield, though his output has been limited. David da Hora and Jonathan Cafú offer pace in the forward line but have struggled to convert chances. This is a squad under pressure, with limited rotation options.
Criciuma Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Airton
- DF: Rodrigo Fagundes, Luciano Castan, César Martins, Willean Bernardo, Marcelo Hermes
- MF: Fellipe Mateus, Jean, Rómulo Otero
- FW: Waguininho, Romarinho
Criciuma also line up in a 3-4-3, with Airton reliable in goal, having made 7 saves in two matches. The back three of Castan, César Martins and Rodrigo Fagundes has been solid, with Fagundes recording 5 interceptions across two games. Rómulo Otero is the player to watch, operating as an advanced midfielder with 8 shots and a goal in recent appearances. Waguininho’s movement causes problems for defenders and he scored in the last match. Eduardo Baptista is expected to name a similar XI to the one that beat Sport Recife.
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Criciuma. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Criciuma are the clear pick here. They lead the Série B table, have won their last two matches 1-0, and are travelling to a Ponte Preta side that has scored zero goals in its last two games and carries a -6 goal difference on the season. The stats back up the favouritism: Criciuma out-shot their last opponent 27 to 11, won the interceptions battle 21 to 3, and generated more than double the corners. We predict a Criciuma win, with the “to win to nil” market offering the best value given Ponte Preta’s attacking impotence. Under 2.5 goals is also sensible, as Criciuma have scored exactly one goal in each of their last two wins, keeping games tight rather than chasing big scorelines.
