Poland (w) vs Denmark (w) Prediction: 12.07.2025 UEFA European Women's Championship

Group C of the UEFA European Women’s Championship 2025 climaxes as Poland face Denmark on 12 July at Bergen’s Brann Stadion. Both sides arrive with their European dreams hanging by a thread: Poland are seeking their first points and goals of the tournament, while Denmark, tipped as favourites, will want to salvage pride and potentially progress. Beneath the scoreless records lurk teams with more depth and potential than recent results suggest can Poland’s disciplined approach unhinge the Danes, or will Denmark’s technical superiority finally translate into three crucial points?

The spotlight, naturally, falls on Ewa Pajor for Poland and Pernille Harder for Denmark two forwards of European pedigree, each possessing the ability to change the game in a blink. Pajor, despite Poland’s attacking woes, remains their most potent threat, while Harder’s leadership and attacking acumen keep Denmark’s hopes flickering even after 180 minutes without a win. Their match-up is a true test of who can rise above Group C adversity.

Here’s one stat you can’t ignore: Poland haven’t scored a single goal or earned a single point in group play contrastingly, Denmark have at least found the net but are yet to secure any points. A drought-breaking result is inevitable for at least one side whose ambition will break this cycle?

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Poland (w) vs Denmark (w) prediction

Given both teams’ modest attacking output and defensive vulnerability, the best value prediction leans towards Denmark (w) to win and for this to be a low-scoring affair. Denmark, driven by a technical edge, more creative midfield and consistently higher ball retention 510 average passes to Poland’s 569 albeit with better vertical play should have enough to edge a Poland side that has struggled dearly in front of goal. Denmark’s 4-3-3 is set up to create width and overloads, whereas Poland’s 4-2-3-1 tends to collapse into a defensive shell under sustained pressure.

Looking deeper, fouls and cards could play a decisive role: Poland have averaged 13 fouls and 3 yellow cards in their last five matches, compared to Denmark’s more physical 19 fouls but only 2 cards. That discipline could count in Denmark’s favour if the game becomes cagey. Denmark also win more corners (7 vs 6) and carry an ever-so-slightly better ball progression metric. All indicators point to Denmark finally turning possession into goals and result, barring a shock Polish rearguard action.

Team Analysis

Poland (w) – Recent Games
Poland’s last outing saw them outclassed 3-0 by Sweden a fixture where their already blunt attack was stifled to just 6 shots, and forced into a rearguard riddled with 13 fouls and 3 yellow cards. Prior, a 0-2 defeat to Germany reflected similar issues: promising buildup play dissipating in the final third, with Pajor frequently isolated and forced wide. Notice they haven’t scored in the group stage, registering just 0.56 expected goals across two matches. In contrast, friendly victories against lower-ranked Ukraine and Romania (4-0 and 3-0) flashed their attacking potential but these were matches with less pressure and more room to experiment.

Denmark (w) – Recent Games
Denmark come off a tight 1-2 defeat to Germany, where despite losing, they produced stretches of incisive attacking play and briefly matched the pre-tournament favourites for tempo and intent. Their 0-1 loss to Sweden underscored attacking frustrations, with only 15 shots and a lack of end product. Amalie Vangsgaard remains their sole goalscorer this campaign reflecting a side that has created enough chances (xG of 1.20 per match) but has been wasteful. Recent heavy defeats to Sweden (1-6) in friendlies seem a distant memory, yet highlight defensive lapses that Poland could potentially exploit if only they can muster the ambition.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Poland (w) vs Denmark (w) stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Denmark (w) the favourite

• Moneyline Poland (w) 5.00 | Denmark (w) 1.55
• Draw 4.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.15 | Under 2.5 1.75
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.20 | No 1.62

The bookmakers favour Denmark (w) for good reason the Danes have greater attacking coherence, a far more experienced spine, and a wider threat palette up front. Poland’s attacking figures are worrying, and while their discipline and defensive structure are respectable, there’s little to suggest a sudden offensive turnaround. Odds for under 2.5 goals reflect both teams’ recent scoring struggles; likewise, the leaning towards ‘No’ for BTTS looks a sound bet, given Poland’s scoring drought and Denmark’s tendency to edge tight, low-scoring affairs.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Poland (w) possible starting eleven

Poland will likely retain their familiar 4-2-3-1 structure, with Szemik a sure starter in goal after consistent performances under pressure. Dudek and Wos anchor the back line, while Pawollek and Matysik offer midfield stability. All eyes are on Pajor to end Poland’s drought she remains their most dynamic forward despite lack of goals. The wingers must offer more support to avoid Pajor being isolated as in previous matches.

Denmark (w) possible starting eleven

Denmark will stick to their attacking 4-3-3, with Larsen in goal and a seasoned back line spearheaded by Veje and Pedersen. In midfield, Holmgaard and Snerle provide the engine, with Harder, Vangsgaard, and Bruun forming a potent if recently misfiring front three. Harder’s tactical flexibility makes her the player to watch: she’s their creative heartbeat, and alongside the aerial strength of Vangsgaard, can unpick even the most regimented defence.

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The Verdict

This match, for all its pressure, could well be dictated by which side finds rhythm early Poland’s lack of goals may haunt them once more, and while Denmark haven’t been free-scoring, they look the more balanced and resilient of the two. Expect Denmark’s midfield to exert control, allowing Harder to roam and create while Vangsgaard provides a much-needed focal point. Unless Pajor springs to life and Poland show a radical change in attacking bravery, Denmark should take the points and potentially keep a clean sheet in the process.

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