Rafael Nogueira
Group B of the ASEAN Championship 2026 sees Philippines take on Myanmar in what already carries weight after the two sides met in a June 2026 friendly, with Philippines winning 5-1. That scoreline gives Carles Cuadrat’s side a significant psychological edge, and the bookmakers reflect this with Philippines sitting at a heavy favorite. Myanmar arrive having already lost their opening group match 1-2 to Malaysia, meaning a second defeat would effectively end their tournament hopes. Philippines have won both matches in the last 30 days, while Myanmar are winless in that same period. Midfielder Kyaw Min Oo is the player to watch for Myanmar, contributing defensively and in transition in their last outing, while Than Paing up front showed enough movement to cause problems despite Myanmar’s overall poor showing against Malaysia.
Hot stat: Myanmar conceded 13 fouls across their last recorded match, the highest foul count in the available data, signaling a side under pressure and likely to give away set-piece opportunities throughout this contest.
| 🏆 Tournament: | ASEAN Championship 2026, Group B |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 12:00 CEST |
Philippines vs Myanmar Prediction
Philippines are the clear pick here. Their 5-1 friendly win over Myanmar in June 2026 was not a fluke, and their overall form since the start of the year backs it up: two wins in the last 30 days and a 67% win rate across 2026. Myanmar have managed just a 50% win rate this year in six matches, and their form heading into this tournament is poor, with three straight losses before the group stage began. Against Malaysia they showed limited attacking output and a defensive fragility that Philippines will target.
Philippines under coach Carles Cuadrat operate in a 4-3-3 shape that presses high and looks to win the ball back quickly in transition. Myanmar mirror the same formation, but their pass accuracy data from the Malaysia match points to a side struggling to hold possession under pressure. Myanmar’s 13 fouls in that single match suggests a reactive, chasing style that Philippines’ mobile forwards will exploit. The foul count also raises the corner kick potential, as teams under pressure tend to give up more set pieces. We predict Philippines to win comfortably and both teams not to score would be a reasonable lean, though Myanmar did find the net against Malaysia.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Philippines to win by 2+ goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Philippines have been in excellent form across their recent fixtures. Their two most recent competitive outings produced a 5-1 win over Myanmar in the June 2026 friendly and a 5-1 win over Guam before that, giving them back-to-back five-goal performances. Prior to those results, a 1-1 draw against Tajikistan showed they can drop points against higher-ranked opposition, but Tajikistan sit far above Myanmar in the world rankings. In the June friendly specifically, Philippines showed clinical finishing and the ability to press Myanmar into errors across the full 90 minutes. Their 2026 win rate of 67% from three matches, combined with a 100% win rate in the last 30 days, confirms this is a team in strong momentum heading into the group stage.
Myanmar’s recent run tells a different story. Their last three results before this tournament were losses: 1-5 to Philippines in the June friendly, 0-4 to Vietnam, and then a 1-2 group stage loss to Malaysia. Against Malaysia, they managed 15 shots but converted just one, and their 13 fouls across the match point to a side that struggled to contain their opponents without resorting to physical challenges. The 6-1 win over Guam earlier in June is the outlier that flatters their recent record. With a 0% win rate in the last 30 days and three consecutive losses, Myanmar come into this match under real pressure.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Philippines | Myanmar |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (Jun 2026 Friendly) | 5 | 1 |
| Goals (ASEAN Championship 2024/25) | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Philippines vs Myanmar stats page for more info.
Myanmar. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Philippines the Favourite
- Moneyline Philippines 1.30 | Myanmar 7.33
- Draw 4.98
The odds reflect the reality of this matchup. Philippines at around 1.30 is short but justified given their recent head-to-head dominance, current form, and Myanmar’s winless run. Myanmar at 7.33 carries risk even as a long-shot punt, given how convincingly Philippines handled them just weeks ago. The draw at nearly 5.00 is tempting only if you believe Myanmar can replicate their 2024/25 group stage draw, but the form gap between these sides in 2026 makes that a low-probability outcome. We see Philippines winning as the only sensible single-match bet, with the value perhaps sitting in the margin of victory markets rather than the straight win line.
Possible Starting Lineups
Myanmar Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: ZIN NYI NYI Aung
- DF: Kyaw Soe Moe, Hein Phyo Win, Nanda Kyaw
- MF: Kyaw Min Oo, Khun Kyaw Zin Hein
- FW: Maung Maung Lwin, Hein Htet Aung, Win Naing Tun, Than Paing
- GK (backup): San Sat Naing
Based on their appearance data from the Malaysia match, Myanmar are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 shape. ZIN NYI NYI Aung takes the starting goalkeeper role, having made five saves against Malaysia. Kyaw Min Oo in midfield is their most active pressing player, recording an interception and a free kick won in his last outing. Up front, Than Paing showed the most direct threat with three shots, making him the focal point of Myanmar’s attacking intent. The defensive line, anchored by Hein Phyo Win and Kyaw Soe Moe, will need a much cleaner performance than they produced against Malaysia if Myanmar are to limit the damage against Philippines.
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Philippines. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Philippines are the confident pick to win this Group B fixture. The June 2026 friendly result of 5-1 is the most relevant data point available, and Myanmar’s form has not improved since that meeting. Three consecutive losses, a defensive record showing 13 fouls in a single match, and a goalkeeper who needed five saves just to keep the Malaysia scoreline at 1-2, all point to a side that will struggle against Philippines’ attack. Carles Cuadrat’s team have scored five goals in each of their last two matches and have a 100% win rate over the past 30 days. We predict a Philippines win with over 2.5 goals in the match, with both teams to score given Myanmar’s ability to find the net even in heavy defeats.
