Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar Prediction: 16.01.2026 A-League Men 2025/26 Preview

As the A-League Men’s regular season builds pace Down Under, all eyes turn to HBF Park in Perth for a match with more than just mid-table pride at stake. Perth Glory lock horns with Brisbane Roar in a contest featuring two sides desperate to convert stuttering form into momentum for the second half of their campaign. Interestingly, while both clubs share similar points tallies, their approaches and recent fortunes differ sharply—setting the stage for a tactical chess match in the West.

No separate section is needed to spotlight the stars; Perth’s Tom Lawrence has been a revelation up front, notching four goals in as many recent appearances. His instinct in the final third has rescued crucial points. For Brisbane, watch Jay O’Shea—often the conduit for creativity and composure in midfield—even when the Roar’s attack sputters. These two will be at the epicentre of any meaningful advances generated by their respective squads on the day.

The “hot stat”? Perth Glory boast a resounding turnaround at home, hammering Central Coast Mariners 3-0 in their last outing—a result that not only broke their own losing streak, but also signalled a return to attacking fluency, especially for Tom Lawrence whose recent goal form is impressive.

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Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar prediction

The best value heading into this clash leans narrowly toward the hosts. Perth Glory’s renewed sharpness at home, killer instinct from Tom Lawrence and a marginally stronger home win rate (40% over the last five) tip the balance in their favour. Brisbane Roar have struggled for cutting edge—just one win from their last six—and their output in attack (three goals in their last five) has been pedestrian at best. With both teams deploying the tried-and-trusted 4-2-3-1, expect proceedings to be cagey early before Perth’s front line finds the breakthrough.

Both outfits rack up cards—Brisbane especially, averaging three yellows per match recently. Roar’s propensity for committing fouls (64 in their last five) could hand Perth set-piece opportunities, particularly dangerous with Lawrence lurking. Ball possession favours neither side dramatically, but Glory’s improved pass accuracy and home advantage should tell. Corners may be plentiful (Perth 20, Brisbane 27 in last five), signalling plenty of box action. Add in Roar’s leaky defence, and it’s hard to argue against a Perth win or at least a Draw No Bet on the hosts.

Team Analysis

Perth Glory march into this match off the back of a commanding 3-0 home win against Central Coast Mariners, a fixture in which Lawrence again found the net and Glory looked far livelier in all thirds. They’ve notched two wins from their last five, showing improved fluidity—though occasional lapses at the back persist. Adam Griffiths’ squad has been blending the guile of Lawrence with the work rate of Pennington and pace of Ostler, while their defensive unit, anchored by Shamoon and Kaltak, has shown signs of tightening up. Their win over the Mariners broke a home duck and should inject confidence.

Brisbane Roar, meanwhile, are in a rut after falling 0-2 at home to high-flying Auckland FC last time out. The Roar’s only recent bright spark came in a 2-1 win over Central Coast Mariners—a result that looks more an exception given that they’ve failed to score in three of their last four. Michael Valkanis’ men remain competitive in midfield but they’ve lacked ruthlessness up top and have been guilty of ill-discipline—15 yellows in five matches and a tendency to get caught on the break, with defensive midfielders especially under scrutiny. The blend of youth and experience has not quite gelled this term.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Perth Glory the favourite

• Moneyline Perth Glory 2.12 | Brisbane Roar 3.23
• Draw 3.54
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.99 | Under 2.5 1.87
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.77 | No 2.05

The odds paint a clear, if cautious, picture—Perth Glory are rightly marginal favourites, thanks mainly to their home bounce and recent attack. The draw remains a genuine possibility if Roar’s midfield can control the tempo and avoid defensive lapses. With the bookmakers leaning toward multiple goals and both sides scoring, there’s consensus that both will create openings, but Glory are fancied to edge it—especially if Lawrence and Pennington continue their purple patch.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Perth Glory possible starting eleven

• GK: Matthew Sutton
• DF: Charbel Awni Shamoon, Brian Kaltak, Scott Wootton, Sam Sutton
• MF: William Freney, Nicholas Pennington, Rhys Bozinovski, Trent Ostler
• FW: Tom Lawrence, Adam Taggart

Perth Glory’s likely 4-2-3-1 formation puts Matthew Sutton between the sticks, while Shamoon, Kaltak, Wootton, and Sam Sutton provide a mix of youth and experience in defence. In midfield, expect Pennington to pull strings, ably supported by Bozinovski’s industry and Freney’s tidiness. Up front, the ever-dangerous Tom Lawrence will flank Adam Taggart, who offers a poacher’s instinct. Lawrence’s recent form is the standout, but Ostler’s directness could also cause problems for Roar’s backline. This lineup gives Griffiths the necessary balance between structure and attacking risk.

Brisbane Roar possible starting eleven

• GK: Dean Bouzanis
• DF: James McGarry, Austin Ludwik, Hosine Bility, Lucas Herrington
• MF: Jay O’Shea, Samuel Klein, Youstin Salas, Georgios Vrakas
• FW: Michael Ruhs, Justin Vidic

Valkanis is likely to stick with a similar 4-2-3-1. Dean Bouzanis is the dependable last line, marshalling a back four with the energy of McGarry and Ludwik, while Herrington and Bility handle the defensive flanks. The midfield will have O’Shea orchestrating alongside Klein and Salas, offering both bite and composure. Vidic and Ruhs look set to lead the line; Vidic’s movement, if matched by O’Shea’s vision, could trouble Perth’s centre-backs. Watch O’Shea—he makes Roar tick, though defensive discipline will be paramount to avoid costly lapses.

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My take on the Match

We fancy Perth Glory to continue their resurgence in a tightly contested fixture. Their improved creativity and Tom Lawrence’s golden touch ought to be decisive against a Roar side lacking spark away from home. That said, Brisbane are prone to fighting to the last whistle and have the midfield crafters to snatch a point if allowed to settle. Our main pick? Back Perth Glory Draw No Bet for value—expect both sides to score, but home comforts and a revitalised attack should see the West Australians claim all three points. With each squad eager to ignite a late-season charge, this encounter could spark the form run that both clubs so dearly crave. One wonders—will this be the turning point for either?

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