PEC Zwolle vs Groningen Prediction: 13.03.2026 Eredivisie

As the Eredivisie regular season unfolds, PEC Zwolle prepare to host Groningen at the MAC³PARK Stadion, with both sides seeking stability in what’s been a turbulent campaign. Neither team has found consistency, yet the closely matched standings add a layer of intrigue—particularly with Zwolle’s five-match winless streak and Groningen only just snapping theirs with a fine victory over Ajax. This encounter is set to be a tactical duel, not merely a battle for points but a moment ripe for momentum-shifting performances.

Eyes will be fixed on creative force Younes Namli for Zwolle, whose flair in advanced areas could unlock a disciplined Groningen defence, and on Oskar Zawada, Groningen’s sharpest finisher of late, whose brace against Ajax turned heads. In midfield, both sides will depend on engine-room operators Thijs Oosting and Stije Resink, who may quietly dictate the tempo and flow—without being separate stars but as essential cogs.

Notably, Groningen’s recent 3-1 triumph over Ajax stands out—they are the only team in this matchup to beat a current top-five side in their last five outings, hinting they have the tools to trouble Zwolle here.

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PEC Zwolle vs Groningen prediction

The best value for this fixture leans toward Groningen in the Draw No Bet market. Their recent away win at Ajax, combined with Zwolle’s lack of victories in the last five matches, tilt the balance just enough. PEC Zwolle have struggled to finish off games, recording three consecutive draws and no wins across their last five. Groningen, though erratic defensively, have shown the ability to find goals—particularly through Zawada and Van Bergen.

Discipline could be decisive: Zwolle average marginally more fouls (45 in last five games compared to Groningen’s 36), but both sides keep their yellow card count manageable. Ball possession is likely to be balanced, with neither team excelling in controlling the midfield for long spells (pass accuracy hovers around 79-80 percent). This suggests open play and plenty of transitional phases.

Expect a contest featuring several goalmouth exchanges and both keepers called into action. Corners and set-pieces may prove pivotal, especially as neither team has scored a free kick goal in their last five matches but both have averaged over four corners per game.

Team Analysis

PEC Zwolle: In their last five matches, Zwolle have taken a single point from each of the last three, notably drawing 1-1 at home against a stoic Sparta Rotterdam. Their defence is permeable—having conceded four at home to Heerenveen only recently—while their attack lacks consistent punch, scoring just four goals over the last five league fixtures. Namli remains their most creative force, but they are susceptible to quick breaks and struggle to recover from defensive lapses. Zwolle’s home form shows increased fight yet is undermined by lapses in concentration and a lack of a clinical edge up front.

Groningen: Groningen’s recent games highlight a team with goals in them, but also pronounced defensive frailties. Their 3-1 home victory over Ajax was a breath of fresh air after a four-match losing streak, reminding us all what this team is capable of when momentum is on their side. Van Bergen and Zawada have been pivotal, but Groningen’s tendency to concede in every match remains a concern. The ability to score against top teams, however, gives them a slight psychological advantage coming into this one, even if their away form has been questionable.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full PEC Zwolle vs Groningen stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Groningen the favourite

• Moneyline PEC Zwolle 2.88 | Groningen 2.33
• Draw 3.62
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.98 | Under 2.5 1.81
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.77 | No 2.04

Groningen emerge as slight bookmakers’ favourites (41 percent win probability) despite their inconsistency—largely thanks to that big win over Ajax and the generally more potent attack. The draw, however, remains highly plausible, and with Zwolle playing stubbornly at home, this could easily tip either way. Over 2.5 goals is marginally favoured by the bookies, in line with both teams’ leaky defences and recent scoring record.

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Possible Starting Lineups

PEC Zwolle possible starting eleven

Selecting de Graaff in goal is a safe bet—he’s been ever-present. MacNulty and Gooijer anchor the back four, with Floranus offering width. Oosting’s drive from midfield and Namli’s creativity in a nominal front three are vital for any attacking success. Expect a 4-3-3 formation, with Kostons and De Rooij flanking Namli for quick transitions. Namli’s performance could swing the tie if Zwolle hope to change their fortunes.

Groningen possible starting eleven

Vaessen is assured in goal, with Peersman and Blokzijl forming the spine of the defence. Mercera and Janse round out a back four that has seen frequent rotation. The midfield will depend on the discipline of Land and the dynamism of Resink, whilst Schreuders connects play to the front line. Up front, Van Bergen and Zawada offer real threat, with Idrissi’s clever movement completing the 4-3-3. Watch Zawada’s physicality and Van Bergen’s pace—key weapons for the visitors.

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My take on the Match

What a challenge for both sides! Taking everything into account, we think Groningen edge this as the better value, particularly in the Draw No Bet option, thanks to their recent firepower and Zwolle’s lack of cutting edge. However, these are volatile teams—capable of both resilience and calamity—so don’t be shocked by a pulsating score draw. Expect energy, relentless pressing, but also defensive errors. Whoever makes fewer mistakes and capitalizes on set pieces will walk away with precious points.

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