Paysandu Pa vs Novorizontino Prediction: 24.09.2025 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

As the Campeonato Brasileiro Série B regular season nears its climax, Belem’s Estádio Leônidas Castro will host a pivotal clash between Paysandu Pa and Novorizontino on September 24, 2025. Both teams enter this encounter with their campaigns at a crossroads: Paysandu Pa are battling to escape the relegation zone, desperately seeking a turnaround, while Novorizontino strive to consolidate their position in the promotion chase. This fixture isn’t just about points; it’s a test of resilience, tactical discipline, and psychological fortitude.

Two players who could tip the balance are Diogo Oliveira of Paysandu Pa, whose relentless work rate provides a rare creative spark amidst a difficult run, and Nathan of Novorizontino, whose incisive movement has been a consistent threat for defenders across Série B. With midfield battles and quick transitions likely determining the outcome, their performances demand close attention.

Interestingly, Novorizontino have managed to convert all their last 5 league goals from inside the penalty area—a testament to their effectiveness in high-pressure attacking phases.

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Paysandu Pa vs Novorizontino prediction

The best value prediction for this match is a “Draw No Bet: Novorizontino” selection. My analysis leans this way due to several telling factors. Novorizontino are in far better recent form, with two wins and just one defeat in their last five, compared to Paysandu Pa who have not claimed a victory in their previous five outings. Novorizontino’s consistent midfield control (notably through Luís Oyama’s passing and Rodrigo’s defensive acuity) gives them a platform to absorb pressure and counterattack effectively. Paysandu Pa, meanwhile, have struggled in front of goal and shown frailty under sustained attacks—scoring just twice in their last five and conceding almost double that tally.

Statistically, both sides are similar in terms of ball possession and pass accuracy (Paysandu Pa averaging 1694 passes at 60 percent; Novorizontino with 1560 at 59 percent), but Novorizontino edge out with more attacking verve and have committed slightly fewer fouls. If Paysandu Pa turn this into a physical contest—reflected in their higher total fouls and yellow cards—it could disrupt Novorizontino’s rhythm, but the visitors’ superior positioning could still yield dividends.

Team Analysis

Paysandu Pa: The hosts are enduring a torrid streak, with four losses and a draw in their last five fixtures. Their most recent outing, a 0-1 defeat against high-flying Goias, underscored their lack of cutting edge—managing just six shots on target and suffering from a lack of precision in midfield transitions. Defensive lapses and minimal attacking output (just two goals in the last five matches) have left coach Márcio Fernandes searching for solutions. The crowd in Belem expects a reaction, but increased pressure could further destabilize a side struggling with confidence.

Novorizontino: The visitors, led by Enderson Moreira, arrive in superior form, having secured a 1-0 triumph over Athletic Club in their previous match. Their disciplined 4-2-3-1 system allows for quick switches in play and effective use of the flanks, with both Bruno José and Nathan finding chances in space. Novorizontino have found the net five times over their last five contests, displaying clinical finishing and greater attacking creativity than their hosts. Defensively, however, they remain susceptible on the left, an area Paysandu Pa could target.

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🚨Read our full Paysandu Pa vs Novorizontino stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Paysandu Pa the favourite

• Moneyline Paysandu Pa 2.60 | Novorizontino 2.95
• Draw 2.92
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.53 | Under 2.5 1.55
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.17 | No 1.70

Bookmakers rate Paysandu Pa a slight favourite owing to their home advantage. However, my analysis suggests Novorizontino’s well-drilled approach and superior form tilt the odds’ value in their direction, especially using safety nets like the Draw No Bet. Paysandu Pa’s home record is poor, and their attack has sputtered against defensive setups similar to Novorizontino’s. With most markets heavily favouring a low-scoring encounter, value lies in backing Novorizontino not to lose.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Paysandu Pa possible starting eleven

This projected lineup maintains tactical continuity in the familiar 4-2-3-1 shape. Bryan and Reverson offer width from fullback, while the partnership of Thiago Heleno and Maurício Antônio provides central stability. In midfield, Anderson Leite’s high interception rate and Carlos Eduardo’s positional intelligence will be crucial for breaking up play. Up front, Diogo Oliveira is the focal point, supported by the industrious Maurício Garcez and Marlon Douglas. Watching Oliveira is key—if he finds rhythm early, Paysandu Pa may challenge Novorizontino’s backline.

Novorizontino possible starting eleven

Novorizontino are expected to stick with Enderson Moreira’s well-drilled 4-2-3-1. The defensive line combines César Martins’ aerial prowess and Rodrigo’s composure with Mayk Van Van’s ability to progress play. The midfield trio, anchored by Oyama, brings both balance and creativity, while the attacking band of Bruno José, Nathan, and Oscar Ruiz can interchange fluently, stretching any static defense. Bruno José’s movement and Nathan’s recent form render them difference-makers in this away fixture.

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My take on the Match

My main pick is Draw No Bet: Novorizontino. They enter this match with clearer tactical organisation, recent momentum, and offensive sharpness. Paysandu Pa’s home advantage and urgent need for points will make this a fierce contest, but unless they significantly improve their attacking execution and reduce defensive lapses, Novorizontino are poised to at least avoid defeat, if not snatch all three points. This game could well be decided by a single moment of quality, and the stats show Novorizontino have the edge in providing those.

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