Liam Duckstein
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Two sides sitting at the bottom of the early Serie A 2026/27 table meet at Ennio Tardini on September 6th, and neither can afford another defeat. Both Parma and Monza are winless after two league games, but the paths that brought them here are quite different. Parma have scored zero goals in the league so far, while Monza have been shipping goals at an alarming rate, conceding seven across two fixtures. Something has to give, and this clash looks more open than the standings suggest.
Two players worth watching closely are Simone Lontani for Parma, the only player in their recent five-match sample to register goals, and Gustavo Varela for Monza, who has bagged four goals in just three appearances and is clearly the focal point of Ivan Juric’s attack.
Hot stat: Gustavo Varela scored four goals in only three matches for Monza across their last five fixtures, making him the most dangerous forward in this tie by a clear margin.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Ennio Tardini, Parma |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Parma vs Monza Prediction
Parma have managed just two goals across five recent matches and zero in two Serie A outings this season. Their attack is misfiring badly, and they face a Monza side that, despite leaking goals themselves, creates chances in volume. Monza generated 63 total shots in five games compared to Parma’s 38, and that attacking output is hard to ignore.
We predict Monza to win this match. Juric’s men have the better form across the last 30 days, winning 40% of their games against Parma’s 20%, and their individual quality in attack with Varela and Patrick Cutrone providing constant threat gives them a clear edge. Parma at home adds some caution, but the hosts’ inability to score consistently makes it difficult to back them.
Parma average 46 fouls in five games and Monza sit at 48, meaning this will be a physically contested match with regular stoppages. Parma’s pass accuracy across five games sits at around 86% of attempts completed, while Monza’s is slightly lower at roughly 83%, suggesting Parma will look to control possession without necessarily converting it into clear chances. Monza’s 58 interceptions versus Parma’s 43 show Juric’s side is far more active in disrupting play, which could prove decisive in breaking up Parma’s build-up.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Monza to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Parma’s recent run has been poor. Across their last five matches, they collected one win against a low-ranked Catania side, losing to Cremonese (0-2), Juventus (0-2), Cagliari (0-1), and Sampdoria (0-2). The Juventus loss is understandable given the opposition quality, but defeats to Cremonese and Sampdoria, both ranked outside the top 300 in the world clubs ranking, point to structural problems in Carlos Cuesta’s setup. The team has scored just two goals in five games, both from Simone Lontani, and has kept zero clean sheets in that stretch.
Monza’s five-game run tells a more mixed story. They beat Torino 1-0 in their most recent outing, a result that shows they can grind out wins. Before that, they lost 2-3 to Udinese and 1-4 to Inter, but they also dismantled Avellino 3-0 and drew 3-3 with Padova in a high-scoring affair. The attacking numbers are encouraging. Varela in particular has been lethal, and Cutrone chipped in with two assists across four appearances. Juric’s 3-4-2-1 system gives them width and compactness, and when it clicks, they can hurt teams quickly.
🚨Check out our dedicated Parma vs Monza stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Parma the Slight Favourite
- Moneyline Parma 2.55 | Monza 3.00
- Draw 3.05
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.75
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.00 | No 1.80
The bookmakers make Parma a narrow home favourite at around 2.55, which reflects their home advantage rather than their current form. Monza at 3.00 looks like reasonable value given their superior attacking output and better recent results. The draw at 3.05 is fair for a match between two struggling sides, but given both teams need points, a draw feels like the worst outcome for either camp. The BTTS Yes option at roughly 2.00 is worth considering given Parma’s defensive leaks and Monza’s volume of shots created.
Possible Starting Lineups
Parma Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Edoardo Corvi
- DF: Enrico Del Prato, Lautaro Valenti, Mariano Troilo, Emanuele Valeri
- MF: Christian Ordóñez, Mandela Keita, Adrián Bernabé García
- FW: Simone Lontani, El Bilal Touré, Matija Frigan
Cuesta has been using a 4-3-3 shape, and the players above reflect the most consistent selections across the last five matches. Edoardo Corvi starts in goal with four appearances to his name. Del Prato and Troilo anchor the backline alongside Valenti and Valeri. In midfield, Ordóñez has the most passing volume of any Parma player with 157 passes across five games, making him the engine of their build-up. Simone Lontani is the key attacking threat, the only Parma player to score in recent weeks, and he deserves a starting spot up front alongside El Bilal Touré, who registered an assist in this run.
Monza Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Demba Thiam
- DF: Eddy Kouadio, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Andrea Carboni, Ricardo Mangas
- MF: Foe Ondoa, Mathis Mout, Andrea Colpani
- FW: Gustavo Varela, Patrick Cutrone, Omari Forson
Juric’s preferred 3-4-2-1 may shift slightly depending on personnel, but the players listed here have featured most consistently. Demba Thiam has three appearances in goal while Aljaz Strajnar has also featured across four games, though Thiam appears to be the current first choice. Eddy Kouadio leads all Monza defenders with 360 minutes played, and Ricardo Mangas is active down the right with six total shots and one assist. Gustavo Varela is the standout name. Four goals in three games is an extraordinary return, and he is the biggest threat Parma will face on the day. Cutrone’s two assists show he links play well even when not scoring himself, and Forson adds another goal to his name in this five-game window.
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Monza. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
This is a match between two sides who need a result badly, but the numbers point clearly in one direction. Parma have not scored in two Serie A games, their attacking stats over five matches are low across the board, and their only reliable scorer, Lontani, faces a Monza side that is active in winning the ball back with 58 interceptions in five games.
Monza carry genuine firepower. Varela is in the kind of form that punishes disorganised defences, and Parma’s backline has been leaking goals to teams ranked far below Monza’s level. We predict a Monza win, with both teams to score and the total going over 2.5 goals. The physical intensity of both sides, their combined 94 fouls across five games, means set pieces will be frequent, and Monza’s corner count of 19 compared to Parma’s 18 shows both sides are capable of creating danger from wide areas.
To be honest, backing Monza on the moneyline at around 3.00 offers solid value given the form gap. Our tip is Monza to win and both teams to score.
