Sofia Quijada
Paraguay (W) host Colombia (W) at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in what is essentially a table-topper fixture in the CONMEBOL Liga de Naciones Femenina 2025/26. Colombia sit first with 17 points from seven games, unbeaten so far, while Paraguay sit fifth on 10 points. The two sides already met in the Copa America Femenina 2025, where Colombia won 4-1, and the bookmakers are heavily backing a repeat result here.
Two players stand out as key figures. For Colombia, Leicy Santos brings creative energy from midfield, logging an assist and 40 passes in the last match, and she tends to dictate tempo in tight defensive battles. For Paraguay, Lice Chamorro offers a direct threat up front, scoring once and contributing an assist in her last outing, and she will look to exploit any space left by Colombia’s high defensive line.
Hot stat: Paraguay scored 8 goals in their last single recorded match, a dominant 8-0 demolition of Bolivia, giving them a total of 35 shots across their last five outings. Colombia, by contrast, managed just 11 shots across their last five matches, suggesting a far more conservative and controlled style of play.
| 🏆 Tournament: | CONMEBOL Liga de Naciones Femenina 2025/26, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Defensores del Chaco, Asuncion |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:00 CEST |
Paraguay (W) vs Colombia (W) Prediction
Colombia are the clear favourites here and with good reason. Their unbeaten run in this tournament, combined with a 4-1 Copa America win over Paraguay just weeks ago, makes the Colombia (W) win market the most sensible place to look. At odds of 1.34, the value is thin on the straight win, so a more interesting entry point is Colombia to win and both teams to score, given Paraguay’s attacking output in recent games and Colombia’s tendency to control rather than shut out.
Paraguay average far more shots and free kicks per game than Colombia in recent form, and their 4-2-3-1 setup allows for quick transitions. Colombia’s 5-4-1 system is built to absorb pressure and hit on the break, which means Paraguay may generate chances even if they ultimately lose. Colombia have committed 15 fouls across their last five recorded matches, earning a yellow card in the process, while Paraguay have been cleaner with 10 fouls and no bookings. That discipline difference could prove meaningful if the game becomes physical late on.
- We predict Colombia (W) to win as the primary outcome, backed by their unbeaten tournament form and recent head-to-head dominance.
- Paraguay’s attacking volume makes Over 2.5 goals a reasonable secondary bet, especially given their 8-0 result in the previous round.
- We also lean toward Both Teams to Score: Yes, as Paraguay have the firepower to trouble Colombia’s defense, even in a losing effort.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Colombia (W) Win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Paraguay have been inconsistent across this tournament, winning three and losing three of their seven games. Their form line reads mixed over a longer stretch, but the last 30 days tell a better story, a 100% win rate from one match, that dominant 8-0 win over Bolivia. Coach Fabio Fukumoto’s side has shown they can put goals on the board against weaker opponents, but their 0-1 losses to Chile on two separate occasions and a 1-1 draw with Peru reveal clear limitations against organized defenses. Their attacking stats are inflated by the Bolivia result, and a more measured reading of their form suggests they are a mid-table team in this competition.
Colombia enter this match as the form team in the tournament. Angelo Marsiglia’s side has gone unbeaten in seven games, winning five and drawing two, with a goal difference of plus eight. Their last result was a narrow 1-0 win over Uruguay, and before that they held Argentina to a 0-0 draw, showing they can manage games when needed. Their only loss this year came against the USA in a non-tournament friendly, which underlines their quality at the continental level. The 5-4-1 shape gives them defensive solidity, and players like Leicy Santos and Linda Caicedo provide the technical quality to punish teams on the break.
🚨 Check out our dedicated Paraguay (W) vs Colombia (W) stats page for more info.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Colombia (W) the Favourite
- Moneyline Paraguay (W) 7.00 | Colombia (W) 1.34
- Draw 4.50
The 1.34 on Colombia reflects their dominance in this tournament and the clear quality gap between the two sides. At 67% implied probability from the average bookmaker expectation, and backed by a 4-1 Copa America result against this same opponent, Colombia are priced correctly. Paraguay at 7.00 carries a 13% implied probability, which is fair given their inconsistency. The draw at 4.50 looks unattractive given Colombia’s form and the lack of any recent evidence that Paraguay can hold them. For value, the best angle remains a Colombia win with goals on both sides rather than backing the straight result at compressed odds.
Possible Starting Lineups
Colombia (W) Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Luz Katherine Tapia Ramirez
- DF: Daniela Arias, Jorelyn Carabali, Ana Guzman, Daniela Caracas
- MF: Leicy Santos, Marcela Restrepo, Lorena Bedoya, Daniela Montoya
- FW: Linda Caicedo, katerine wendy candelo bonilla
Colombia line up in their 5-4-1, though the data suggests a 4-4-2 variant is possible depending on Marsiglia’s approach. Luz Katherine Tapia Ramirez starts in goal after making a save in the last match. The defensive block is anchored by Jorelyn Carabali, who logged 55 passes and 2 shots from a fullback role, and Daniela Arias, who covered 90 minutes. In midfield, Leicy Santos is the creative hub, while Marcela Restrepo covers ground and wins the ball back. Linda Caicedo remains the most dangerous attacking presence, and even with a quiet stat line in the last game, her ability to change a match in one moment makes her the player to watch.
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Paraguay (w). Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Colombia are the standout team in this tournament and arrive in Asuncion with momentum, discipline, and a proven ability to beat Paraguay. Their unbeaten seven-game run, combined with the 4-1 Copa America result against this exact opponent, gives them a clear edge. Paraguay’s home advantage is real, and their attack can generate volume, but Colombia’s 5-4-1 system is built precisely to absorb that kind of pressure.
We predict a Colombia (W) win, most likely by a margin of two or more goals. The most value-oriented bet is Colombia Win + Both Teams to Score, given Paraguay’s attacking output even in defeat. Over 2.5 goals is also backed by Paraguay’s tendency to trade chances rather than shut up shop. To be honest, at 1.34 the straight Colombia win is a low-return play, so pairing it with goals is the smarter construction.
