PAOK vs Rijeka Prediction: 28.08.2025 UEFA Europa League Playoff Preview

PAOK and Rijeka line up for a high-stakes Europa League Playoff clash at Thessaloniki’s indomitable Toumba Stadium, both chasing continental progress with vigorous ambition. While PAOK seek redemption after a narrow defeat to Rijeka in the reverse leg, Rijeka arrive buoyed by their latest run, hoping to overturn Greek home advantage. What makes this fixture truly compelling is the tactical cat and mouse that’s emerged between Lucescu’s well-drilled Greeks and Djalovic’s energetic Croatians—each prizing defensive rigidity and quick transitional play.

All eyes will be on PAOK’s creative force Giannis Konstantelias, whose midfield orchestration can unlock stubborn defences, and Rijeka’s tireless Toni Fruk, already proving a handful with his offensive flair and knack for crucial contributions. Notably, goalkeepers Jiří Pavlenka (PAOK) and Martin Zlomislić (Rijeka) bring their own shot-stopping pedigree to the fore, setting up a tantalising duel at both ends.

If one statistic leaps off the page, it’s Rijeka’s impressive return of 6 goals in their last five matches, in stark contrast to PAOK’s solitary strike in the same period—a marker of the Croatians’ sharper cutting edge in front of goal of late.

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PAOK vs Rijeka prediction

Given the narrow margins evident in the first leg, this return fixture is poised for a cagey yet fiercely contested battle. The bookmakers have installed PAOK as clear favourites, owing to their home strength and superior defensive metrics—conceding just once in five recent matches at Toumba. Yet Rijeka’s ability to nick goals and their higher goal count suggest they’ll pose a genuine threat on the break.

Statistically, expect a tight affair—PAOK average over 60% passing accuracy and maintain disciplined shape in a 4-2-3-1, but have lacked clinical finishing recently. Rijeka, meanwhile, play with greater attacking thrust and a willingness to absorb pressure, as seen in their slightly higher foul and card count, which speaks to a combative edge. Expect this dynamic to keep goal tallies modest, yet ensure plenty of incident and grit.

Team Analysis

PAOK Recent Games:
PAOK have struggled with fluency in front of goal, netting just once in their last five—drawing blanks in two consecutive meetings with Wolfsberger and most recently succumbing to a 0-1 defeat at Rijeka. Their form (W-L-W-W-L) is patchy, underscored by a midfield that builds play with precision but lacks a reliable scorer to finish promising moves. Despite dominating possession, PAOK’s conversion rate is an area Lucescu will need to address urgently if they hope to progress.

Rijeka Recent Games:
Rijeka head to Greece with a sharper record—winning their Playoff first leg 1-0 and notching three in a lively win over Shelbourne, though they stumbled with a home loss against Varazdin and shipped two goals to Dinamo Zagreb. The hallmark of Rijeka’s recent run is adaptability, mixing defensive grit with sudden bursts of attacking verve. Fruk and Menalo have especially caught the eye for their ability to unlock opposition lines, giving Rijeka belief of another scalp away.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full PAOK vs Rijeka stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: PAOK the favourite

• Moneyline PAOK 1.56 | Rijeka 5.49
• Draw 3.64
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.72
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.21 | No 1.62

Clearly, the bookmakers’ lean toward PAOK reflects their impressive home record and European pedigree, while Rijeka’s underdog odds mirror their historical difficulties on Greek soil. A low-scoring outcome is well backed by both teams’ defensive organisation and recent scoring struggles from PAOK. However, you simply can’t write off Rijeka’s capacity to upset—recent form and their 1-0 win in the first leg keep the tie wide open.

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Possible Starting Lineups

PAOK possible starting eleven

PAOK are likely to line up in a familiar 4-2-3-1, banking on Pavlenka’s steady gloves behind a robust back four featuring Michailidis and Sastre. Midfield dynamo Konstantelias shoulders creative duties, while Camara bombs forward with intent. Živković and Chalov, though goal-shy lately, offer technical ability and movement; this XI gives PAOK a solid base for ball retention yet lacks a proven finisher, so set pieces may prove decisive. Keep an eye on Konstantelias—his ability to dictate tempo could tilt the tie.

Rijeka possible starting eleven

Rijeka have been consistent with their 4-2-3-1, anchored by the composed Zlomislić in goal. Radeljić and Majstorović form a rugged defensive duo, while Fruk’s energy and Dantas’ passing offer plenty of midfield guile. Up top, Menalo provides a dynamic threat, supported by Čop’s experience in link-up play. The focus will be on whether Menalo and Fruk can exploit spaces in behind PAOK’s defensive line on the break.

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My take on the Match

We fancy a tense encounter with PAOK edging proceedings on home soil, though their lack of recent goals is a significant concern. Rijeka’s energy and attacking threat are not to be underestimated, yet PAOK’s cohesion and home support could tell. Expect a tightly contested match that may swing on a set piece or a moment of magic from one of the creative midfielders. Our main pick: PAOK to win, with under 2.5 goals. This tie still hangs in the balance, and whichever side seizes its moment in the sun could well springboard into the Europa League group stage.

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